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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑! u/ U) M! r @1 h$ d0 B9 s
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/ k! K. J) Y( b7 p W# G- `# I" ]凯利指数的计算方法: ( O1 m2 a L3 d; F& D k& j; n! d% ]& v* Z- J
; p0 f7 Q2 K) \* N4 j1 TG3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔,B:平赔,F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率,B'欧平均平率,F'欧平均负率)
( |7 q5 ^! {5 d. X% N& J- E8 H什么?对于一家特定的公司,它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'!你选择的公司样本不同,G值就不同,样本大小不同,G值也不同(一般的欧均值都取99家公司,从统计学的意义上来讲,还称不上样本!)这个G带有随意性,大个0.05小个0.08之类的,也只能算做误差,现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大?我大你个0.05怎么了?我小你个0.08又有什么干系? H% P+ \' B9 l U8 T. [% v' V4 h4 ]$ C7 @( D
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& t" ]0 @) w! L( u* H% h4 i) g$ j1 U1 ~! d+ g( N
既然涉及到平均胜率,那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的:平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n,S1'是第一家公司的主胜率,S2'是第二家公司的主胜率,以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率(返还率)又是这样求的:r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F),什么??又做梦了!!返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的,这样也行??AC米兰踢亚特兰大,哨响了,投注比固定了,但踢出3,这场返还率可能是150%,踢出1可能是20%,踢出0,可能是5%,结果不同,返还率也不同啊!这里也可以看到,博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛,因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛,但强队踢假球的成本更高,它想操控也操控不了,最好的选择就是烧烧香:天哪,爆个冷吧! 5 K6 {9 \6 E' L4 O% q1 ~3 P; ]6 t2 ]
7 e6 Z/ _5 C5 S: K8 T8 s
& }9 [ X, P4 R' Z, V# |做下算术了: 2 i( y$ \ W: ~: {8 \" `( L% O& L; V8 o- T
; ~' L. y! k5 F, M& W+ d) S/ J- b( {! X8 R* D
(1)SSP: 2.22 3.15 3.01 : `4 u/ N9 a2 y W3 e8 }9 n
) W5 Q* E; {5 U! f" P# K& b G0 m5 u
; J' h. V+ \0 {1 S(2)立博: 2.10 3.25 3.00 & [! ^1 Z* | I! l
; g( K- z% {' c7 b/ T$ P1 H(3)威廉: 2.20 3.10 2.87 : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [ t
6 z J+ o; \7 p# i$ F" E* G* K+ e6 v6 f4 K9 F* Q8 F
(4)易胜博:2.25 3.10 2.95 . X I: `0 L* O
- U+ {+ l. `) m% ~. _
: h K7 [6 P) f1 g8 o我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值 ( p( j3 h% A s: F) L
5 F8 F, p$ }' ]( i% c
- e, L$ u$ T5 @& N. wS1=2.22 B1=3.15 F1=3.01
3 H# l; T c! \! b6 G5 D4 M- }) p6 p X7 L/ s% w6 l
S2=2.10 B2=3.25 F2=3.00
: m% {1 a2 j$ }% ^# T/ X4 W2 j% ] s
* S1 w ]7 j# @S3=2.20 B3=3.10 F3=2.87 ' v7 m$ u9 O7 f$ S5 \7 b: ^$ @
9 A' e& q. H7 B1 c9 S5 j
7 E) A4 b1 L3 L# p* [S4=2.25 B14=3.10 F4=2.95 ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y G+ \
) C1 b, y+ \- G9 [8 c$ I- C8 w( d5 ` _0 H- N/ h7 V4 v3 u" I+ c7 D. Q" x7 A* h: v& b
1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01 => r1=0.91 : h1 E% f$ O r5 C2 g. ?5 p8 q
( R. f* Y& i: d. L, h7 I1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00 => r2=0.90 # t0 ?( P e* X% l
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8 V i4 E( O) Z5 Z' x3 H1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87 => r3=0.89 % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q4 h1 V5 S) L: V8 s1 b" W
4 E4 [. W; ~( S4 d, ~. f' C1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95 => r4=0.90 * }$ N4 {1 _: {- Y
: G+ x9 Y- y- K6 r( L$ Z' ^/ o7 t# t" ~
S1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41 : W# q# m$ g# T3 p8 U5 r$ F9 T* x
# W( h, T0 } T4 v4 I
类似的计算后,于是: # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M j
5 b/ _; k0 d3 b; b4 C8 r7 I1 T7 L. q' u
S1'=41 B1'=29 F1'=30; " P9 ?3 v- f7 S
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S2'=43 B2'=28 F2'=30 3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s
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9 q9 p: B" Q% n% d q0 AS3'=40 B3'=29 F3'=31
6 X/ {! r+ v0 ]* f2 |6 z5 K/ n5 u, C9 L, h+ }+ O/ i% a
* `' v: M! U6 eS4'=40 B4'=29 F4'=31
7 R' P: p8 }' `, u" O* V- ^: B6 y" Y' M2 }4 T/ O0 g4 ~* [9 y9 H% v* Z9 g4 A: e& e- ^0 v+ F
(注意:3,4两家公司,赔率不同,但它们的胜,平,负率相同了) 8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o3 r' P1 I" J4 J+ `7 y! |8 r. b
* R9 Y/ Q" p9 \
# s# B5 U. K% R+ o% d. @& u# T3 M: {6 |好:S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41
4 t6 i$ M( @8 ?8 p3 {' w7 m) q( ], k9 L T& t8 v+ a, D4 @. _4 ?/ b) }
B'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75
8 R( J* E2 i9 A* ?9 D, X1 ^# _
- h3 l. w% Q: y' N* O$ |, iF'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5
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于是: / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P E8 u9 j! |0 ?+ C$ O( ^" U, A0 N# y8 N& s5 l
9 E ]' p: I. D7 h. {' Y% g0 Q4 p9 v2 h9 N4 g1 K( I& W/ c- E
G31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02 ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M# G+ e3 R5 g/ V: D' l
+ D$ n) P# X# M" x" M* [* z/ n
G11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56 2 \# H% @. ^' q2 i; _6 _
! D4 B3 w) l3 o! L9 iG01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8 2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ]
0 b9 d$ o' U6 W" b0 d, W) L O% b/ L( c- \6 @1 R' i$ ?4 {& i
当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得,当然,事实上你不用去求(每场比赛这样求,不累死也气死了),赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。 好,到这里你应该可以知道了,凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了,因为除了赔率是真的,其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的(并非是攻击凯利指数,这个,前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了)。 + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \
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通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系,在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系,在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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