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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑1 z' m3 n& r5 V8 b4 N
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+ E( J6 \" w3 M2 G* l! R凯利指数的计算方法： ( O1 m2 a L3 d; F& D k
( S6 {1 d3 ]9 j
( c! d* K$ D4 I3 n5 `0 D% zG3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔，B:平赔，F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率，B'欧平均平率，F'欧平均负率); j7 J, J% }. c6 k* |2 b
什么？对于一家特定的公司，它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'！你选择的公司样本不同，G值就不同，样本大小不同，G值也不同（一般的欧均值都取99家公司，从统计学的意义上来讲，还称不上样本！）这个G带有随意性，大个0.05小个0.08之类的，也只能算做误差，现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大？我大你个0.05怎么了？我小你个0.08又有什么干系? H% P+ \' B9 l U8 T. [0 D' ?+ I' ]8 V4 f% Y& l/ a
y+ n" l; P( _* Y- T% R+ Q1 i
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既然涉及到平均胜率，那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的：平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n，S1'是第一家公司的主胜率，S2'是第二家公司的主胜率，以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率（返还率）又是这样求的：r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F)，什么？？又做梦了！！返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的，这样也行？？AC米兰踢亚特兰大，哨响了，投注比固定了，但踢出3，这场返还率可能是150%，踢出1可能是20%，踢出0，可能是5%，结果不同，返还率也不同啊！这里也可以看到，博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛，因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛，但强队踢假球的成本更高，它想操控也操控不了，最好的选择就是烧烧香：天哪，爆个冷吧！ 6 `6 Z3 A( a' C' s
7 e6 Z/ _5 C5 S: K8 T8 s
9 Y6 s' ?4 O- k* R5 l# `* Q4 C做下算术了： 2 i( y$ \ W: ~: {8 \" `
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1 u9 L( k4 v w+ j3 x' `4 e(1)SSP： 2.22 3.15 3.01 : `4 u/ N9 a2 y W3 e8 }9 n
! x6 n4 X4 {; g( D: H- H8 `% v4 |& o4 t
(2)立博： 2.10 3.25 3.00
/ D( g& ?/ M. D7 T& T A
& X, o1 j& u& `- p5 H(3)威廉： 2.20 3.10 2.87 : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [ t% M9 @; j) o% n. m
, C9 Q( q0 o8 Y/ Y(4)易胜博：2.25 3.10 2.95
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我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值
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S1=2.22 B1=3.15 F1=3.01 7 P* u# P. e2 H4 J0 C4 Z" m
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S2=2.10 B2=3.25 F2=3.00
4 ]3 x8 H s; I5 H0 U6 S% ^# T/ X4 W2 j% ] s. s9 t$ ]' h: X, w# U
S3=2.20 B3=3.10 F3=2.87 . S5 S3 ?) \" e& y1 o1 H( N
9 A' e& q. H7 B1 c9 S5 j; b0 o/ P( h; _# V: D3 N# a
S4=2.25 B14=3.10 F4=2.95 ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y G+ \: k; z/ N. I8 O6 ?$ q5 {" U
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1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01 => r1=0.91
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& U6 e9 B: U% ]1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00 => r2=0.90 # t0 ?( P e* X% l
) A) a) i- u0 D& O
/ w$ C- s; B4 a3 I# x7 E. M# r1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87 => r3=0.89 % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q
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1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95 => r4=0.90 , p+ Q5 ]' u0 B" ^% [* J
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S1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41 : W# q# m$ g# T* t6 U+ f5 q0 Q K8 h4 t4 ]
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类似的计算后，于是： # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M j
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S1'=41 B1'=29 F1'=30;
- a( r0 H9 {$ j6 W1 u
8 h& d3 H& |3 K7 F# U: i( Z P+ MS2'=43 B2'=28 F2'=30 3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s
$ j a, W7 ]3 p8 w: C; m' V% T, u, P% O; U$ Y3 N" `' D% X1 h# ?/ W; H$ q
S3'=40 B3'=29 F3'=31
9 R0 r' @8 V: s# B9 n! i6 z5 K/ n5 u, C9 L, h+ }+ O/ i% a
; Q* U" f& _' v% eS4'=40 B4'=29 F4'=31
, k4 @# p2 C% B. X: B6 y" Y' M2 }4 T/ O0 g4 ~- }" e; A+ c; _( M9 N5 r
(注意：3,4两家公司，赔率不同，但它们的胜，平，负率相同了) 8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o1 o! z C/ [6 w! E
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2 c+ Y2 b( U0 R; t: F5 C/ o& X* L好：S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41 6 t, p% v( t! j
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C7 L! L+ |+ M, o2 Z# h5 nB'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75
: C7 X$ |" L# {
3 `+ Z# M2 b. x/ c& iF'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5
. V% V5 S: z6 I! }- r8 Y' z& |1 A0 _6 o L* \3 j( q: k
于是： / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P E8 u9 j! |0 ?
# A+ [- q- p6 j5 M9 D9 E ]' p: I. D7 h. {8 d: w, b/ G$ G8 `% L: @' T2 c, ]
G31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02 ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M6 R; w% ? @( p
+ D$ n) P# X# M8 V. H% K4 b& o# Z$ O) r
G11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56
1 N8 S3 \ K e I: D3 j
, o6 T" y2 x' v1 l2 h& uG01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8 2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ], Z! F/ B. W% T9 v9 m( n, j
* }" O9 _7 L& T7 N( N% m5 h# p当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得，当然，事实上你不用去求（每场比赛这样求，不累死也气死了），赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。 好，到这里你应该可以知道了，凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了，因为除了赔率是真的，其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的（并非是攻击凯利指数，这个，前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了）。 + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \- p4 W9 p* [% D* [# Q3 F
6 C* |* h W0 f7 S7 s3 A2 @. G$ i
a- H9 v" R! U' I" g* Y通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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