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[体育菠菜心得方法] 再论赔率统计 --新手胡说八道
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以威廉为标准，只统计 英超，西甲，意甲
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, @$ B1 X5 z0 r0 P3 P, w只跟踪一个联赛! s+ M1 k) }. q: U* r

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全塞季  分别买 主胜，  平，   负赔
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三条线  ，三年统计结果  全部亏水钱，积少成多也不少啊 ，最后收益差别不大，
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1 ~8 t+ Z( n, Y7 L) W3 @* w3 e偶尔年份  平或 负赔会高一点。
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方法：  全程跟踪一个联赛，一个塞季， 只买一边， 主胜 或负赔（平局出现相对概率要少）2 W. X4 Y" p# b' ]  D; a
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然后通过基本面或盘赔特征，排除一部分球赛， 最后你买的那边胜率就会增高， 只需要增高一点，
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就可以做到 一边持平或赚水钱，  然后就是不断累积经验，多排除一些球赛，多赚一点水钱
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" J* K; i$ V8 `- f当经验积累到一定程度， 足球就成了一种长期投资 项目
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亚盘没有统计，想当然，  低水胜出概率高点，  让盘方胜出概率高点，只有两个方向容易判断，
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+ w4 [5 v( L( d而且亚盘返还率要高一点， 选低水+让球方，一个联赛一个赛季全程跟踪，开始肯定输水钱，
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, ?: b: M) b4 S) ]# l/ ]. K但是只要累计经验去排除一些明显打不出来的球赛就可以了，就可以把水钱赚回来。
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理论依据： 只买一边 ，一定不会让你亏多少，因为大联赛大庄都是平衡的，一个联赛一个赛季一定平衡。
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5 m2 Q; I# g7 q9 `- ?' U# x排除比选择要容易积累经验， 而且学习排除法 那些不可能出现  ，比那些可能出现 要容易判断

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以上的方法 是不可能赚多少钱的，5 w  V/ b; d& ~" z- J
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但是每个赛季 5-10%， 是可以做到的，3 c# Y" n- Y0 R1 m! H+ I( {0 W

- g# I/ Q+ w) K8 t8 P这比买国债存银行合算。) I% Z$ Y1 Z& R* v9 k

1 A0 C8 X! d% G0 g& K在DC赚大钱的人，都是用高风险去博高收益，风险大利润才高，
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' r4 ^% b7 q3 Y+ @几次发现十几倍的负赔，就是不敢去，买了平，这就是人性。' t7 R+ c) O0 _/ s! V$ h) }5 m( K
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# ]6 P! h' V5 Q# v: S9 }! t6 Y" c常胜的人收益一定不会高到那里去。
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6 R. \6 {( K/ c, h4 R9 v4 p. h$ B放弃一夜暴富，放弃神奇的方法， 放弃高的胜率，2 e7 @# ^2 k; E. X1 W$ }! i

8 G6 q8 Z4 P+ ]: H9 T就是回避了大的亏损，* y! ~" Y* x. H+ ?/ P
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大亏，小亏，小赢，大赢，  DC就这四种结果，
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* I' z, r, I6 v2 V2 C# Y回避了大亏，用经验避免小亏，就只剩下 赢了。

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