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于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。5 u5 Z2 Y; e }- o5 Y/ [3 o
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" r, \' `$ j% t, T; ?2 J# {% O西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率+ E/ _# w' X! ]% E; v% \
% L3 q' q) K q+ N2 j8 S) Z" H6 D以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:
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7 g9 }0 H. t3 M皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54%
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很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?
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答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)
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8 E3 ]- e' ^9 I: i
. r' P9 L) H8 o* V以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?0 B! J6 s' q1 K$ o; n% f
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. k0 c5 K7 s0 x- J1 R# e盈利可能性
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对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。- m0 n6 r1 z: @" ~0 W: c# u- Y( Q- u5 k' n
, X+ x& Z$ |; B: A h) K增值 [8 I; F m; u. s: i2 n# L
" I7 n: [/ K y2 a& H% {
许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。
1 _( M0 T# l. V6 S0 K3 S9 n! N% R( f
你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?
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a) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5
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正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么
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w( E! x. U( o1 @0 T# A40%的机会你会收到150元的利润2 n: t- p9 |9 m2 [- e) O
60%的机会你会一无所有
# L3 j- T/ Y4 V, w5 \# A+ h* c" r8 P预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0
7 C* k' z5 n+ ?4 n- i& C由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。8 Y6 ]+ f$ s, D5 v, M% y# K
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增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。# V$ k6 f2 H! @9 f0 p
2 \8 ?* P% E8 Y基于增值的投注
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' |0 P9 ~$ O2 t凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。
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公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)
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A=博彩资金' P R' }: c( T' [# D$ B8 X( ]
P=获胜机会
3 h- Z9 w. ~ }9 h6 X7 eO=总获得回报(包括投注本金)
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首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。+ t, J: m+ \1 i9 J
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好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。! j2 t. _% O! G) i
0 e8 m+ v! J- }- t4 x' T1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5), e2 t5 N( @& y
6 S$ S* p1 @ ], J& eA = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)& |/ `. i- }. x; B# a+ I
+ v& p* x/ P! ]% Z+ V
A=0. @4 { U( @) _2 i- f6 ^' _
: S& X6 K# i8 m E* s! B1 R& L6 g结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢4 _' r% [. f6 {0 i+ ~( b
2 @6 |, E# }9 \. ^5 L2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)
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6 _; ^2 L+ X0 J O' }, |! kA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)2 Z$ n6 y1 o& H" Y3 C P
* s) S! K8 p9 F$ F* H7 Z. r* LA=0.1
0 a, k7 l/ \% U$ X+ R8 N' m+ Y( L4 w5 C- P n) i& k' W
结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去
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3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2)
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4 T9 ~- z/ d) W9 l' Z9 ~A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)
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& ^: W& {+ t; NA= -0.2 r' @- [' a4 W
/ X, l3 H' |. R1 P+ Y结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好
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第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
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