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于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。
0 g6 F1 p$ l3 G, W* R, d
+ [! g) B, m4 X8 `* X4 _
+ I& I7 Z3 B+ a) T' t- _# h: t西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率
" h# l* T$ `" H- ]
1 ?8 w- z: x1 H: ?& X以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:! q+ [- J; t; f5 h6 p7 E! r# M
6 t/ g3 A; s+ e1 K- b( V
皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54%
7 w3 W. D/ a6 K9 |: I' z; `8 w: c( e9 w+ ?/ E2 x3 l
很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?2 S9 Q/ g+ l) W$ w; V; k4 h( A
; E; w0 u' v' h! B" D
答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)0 j% f* B& S5 L$ v1 Q
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% o/ @* n* Q8 J. j以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?
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2 v# N/ g- w# V8 B2 h8 K3 C
0 @- q% c# R: S$ T3 f0 x0 c" Y6 |盈利可能性$ J1 J( s( U" T d) \$ Z
1 G8 p' {! [& p4 O! R" f对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。& l7 ?+ l. F9 q' s1 r4 f
4 d1 A+ R+ v) p: \8 X4 A7 ~, ]增值. y0 `/ n$ {4 a% {9 ]0 x5 |( E. p
8 k: O; _% A' i6 I% v% e许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。
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你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?. T2 r7 a& M- `2 e( g6 h
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a) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5
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正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么, E' p/ ]5 x; g0 e1 C
! x$ M# r2 S' H9 u W40%的机会你会收到150元的利润
7 H. s+ H* G7 Y- d' c60%的机会你会一无所有1 B- Q' L S" B" s
预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0
# p4 ?- T) R2 n1 N. |* `由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。' J5 W' i# u) f" U$ I+ x+ O
P: d4 Q" g$ ^# K8 e6 K8 A增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。 i' v( _. C7 W! p
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基于增值的投注
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凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。2 r! u8 l7 Z% o; u' h
6 G6 E" @$ ]! n" c0 O/ ?# D公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)
/ g) i* r: P" G9 o; A; H
( X9 P( _2 E% O1 U7 B% SA=博彩资金& T7 ]- l$ o! d `
P=获胜机会
+ a$ G* Y' I# q6 }O=总获得回报(包括投注本金)3 |4 e" B( g6 T. h
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首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。/ x7 M" p4 x; {& ^: R- i8 R. ^
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好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。: f- F9 n% E% E. r, |
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1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)2 Y7 V0 I b, p- k; y
0 R* y! f7 j, t+ q% `A = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)" d6 V, X/ Y! s4 ?8 s
1 A: q' D; g; s S+ V' AA=0: |2 l+ R0 N, S. y- q
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结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢6 B% H' j& i8 J- r
; K; o( g+ _: O; @, v& u2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)
3 A1 j; [+ ~1 c
( N: D' p, o* _) C$ JA=0.1
3 k! W; K1 @. h$ m7 F1 _2 @
' O& G. M) ^5 d+ y7 G结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去
8 ^) v' o" Z4 y* h5 s `* M: q
0 n5 s! s" c) R+ R7 _8 E3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2)
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)
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A= -0.2 , {: t- f; u m# G* ~
2 N8 \; j7 q1 b& U: L结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好
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第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
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