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: E F3 V' \- C" Q4 O; ?0 G加密风投Pantera合伙人Paul Veradettakit在CoinDesk发表2024年六大预测，他认为9 N- I% Y* q! j9 x& u1 M- ?
DeFi热潮将会在比特币上复活，迎来DeFi2.0；而在比特币现货ETF的加持下，传统金融也会更频繁与DeFi互动，3 E) a( Y6 ^2 b9 i( s4 Q0 l
衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨链桥」的项目。! R+ q' ]0 g2 C |" ^
一、比特币复兴迎来DeFi2.0$ p& K( S$ P2 Z, Z0 q1 I- h
BTC市占率自年初的38%升至年底的50%，加上铭刻的火热程度，都让BTC再次重回投资者视野。
7 y; |- K' m" l0 oPantera认为BTC明年至少有三个主要催化剂以推动复兴：
1 l! g* X6 E* M5 v2024年4月第四次减半: i! C) n1 w/ f9 ]! M7 }. J2 K
机构投资者预计将批准多个比特币现货ETF
. o. }8 u/ ]5 E1 ^3 L: R可编程功能的强化，包括Ordinals协议及L2及扩容方案(如Stacks和Rootstock)
/ | Z/ J& a7 L针对第三点，Pantera预测会有更多以太坊DeFi协议移植到比特币上，迎来DeFi2.0。
( B6 r3 L X( Z- }. @二、链上新应用：代币化社交服务
. L! |- g& T3 Sfriend.tech等社交应用通过与Twitter账户整合，成功为SocialFi领域衍生出一种新的代币经济模型。0 o9 I- _, D6 Q! b
Pantera预期，未来在社交领域会有更多实验，代币化将会发挥关键作用，同质化代币(Fungible Token)能成为忠. F, D" ^% |! Y }2 @( f" q
诚度积分的新形式，而NFT则更可能成为个人的社交资料及资源。
+ t) `' ]6 O, Q: M三、传统金融、DeFi互动更频繁
! s) G. Y/ H8 p- M除了预测比特币现货ETF的通过能让机构采用率大幅增加外，Pantera认为机构会进一步寻求代币化的RWA及传统& a* K6 w7 h* e* ]' }* i! n/ f
金融(TradFi)产品。
# z& X; e' L4 C如同此前BTC以WBTC映射、跨链至以太坊，TradFi资产也会更频繁地与DeFi互动，进而衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨- S ]* N' [7 c" \" _0 a; i8 @
链桥」的项目。' ^' N7 |: O! E+ s* q1 A
四、模组化区块链和零知识证明的交叉授粉
! F2 J, H( @% b3 \- H/ [模组化区块链和零知识证明都在过去一年中取得大幅进展，如近期的Celestia主网、Espresso的Arbitrum协作
) p6 p. k7 }' O7 n" ]7 P- k$ _等。1 N; _% H/ N; ] w Q8 r9 o) A
Pantera认为这两种技术的结合在未来会是一个有趣趋势，而在消费者相关的应用中，零知识证明可能会更多应用6 ?+ N2 Z( W+ ~/ N# I, S
在身份保护、隐私项目中，例如基于ZK的去中心化数字身份。
1 u7 ]! j% {5 r! ^' i) [0 ^1 x五、更多计算密集型应用上链，如AI、DePIN) X3 f ]4 ~: `. v, K# b9 N! @' }' l
Pantera指出链上费用过高等扩容问题已获得解决，以太坊L2的Gas费用低于0.02美元，Solana则更低了几个位* _! B, L; {! ^1 J6 M
数，因此能预计未来一年内，需要大量计算资源的计算密集型应用，在链上运行将变得更加经济可行。
: V0 I4 f- B" E7 z5 L( JPantera点名了几个项目：2 T9 T8 E* d! d
Hivemapper：去中心化的Google地图
4 y8 U5 d4 M; x8 aBittensor：去中心化机器学习平台! q+ _* c( ~$ F& s
Modulus Labs：AI生成NFT艺术品( ]( M' Q2 Y9 t% E; ^5 C
The Graph：链上知识图谱计划
, _) X( t9 l/ W9 M0 ^) Z' c. s! ZRealmsverse：Starknet上的链游
5 f' G, f( q, k" A! `+ _六、小型公链需专注特定应用& k# P; z5 v. {3 [
Pantera最后提到了公链的竞争情况，实际上L1、L2对使用者体验而言并没有太大区别，Solana、Avalanche甚
* s$ G* F) L0 }/ J6 c [* w至能直接与L2竞争。' C6 P" J5 y# ]! b9 w6 K- D
也由于性质相同，Ethereum、BNBChain等五大公链就已锁定总TVL的80%。' F, G6 c3 `0 J; a% p& {% n# `- G& U
Pantera认为，生态较小的公链必须将精力集中在特定的垂直领域(如社交、游戏、DeFi)以保持优势，从而有效地7 ]0 T# N' o9 |% P! O) T+ s
成为「应用链」。
( x6 s+ O+ A9 U: e3 D7 X事实上TVL排名前10的L2中，dydx、Loopring、Ronin都已经是专注单一垂直领域的应用链。: U) e9 m3 U" c* \" N9 Z
6 b% S7 ~. J: R( S |
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