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比特币减半、比特币ETF获批、美联储降息这三件事被越来越多人2 V' ~6 O" i5 O
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认为推动加密牛市的发动机。毫无疑问，比特币正在进入宏观金融世界，
. t1 g2 i T# Y1 @. _4 I L& c( G7 s6 h" x
而传统金融大门向比特币彻底打开，迎接比特币的则是继承上一代财富
8 g/ x. T* E, y8 K. h
0 Q7 e O& r( f G5 `; X的千禧一代。
3 I# |: V7 Y( K5 v" ]7 H* b从比特币减半周期维度看，目前比特币确实已经进入新阶段。根据PlanB$ N+ S, E9 t) f0 O& D; q6 x
" N' R) `7 H4 \2 s# ^的S2F模型看，目前，比特币已经进入”减半前 6 个月 – 减半后 18 个月“
q U% Y- V! i- {# F* T
1 S9 c0 z/ P1 \# ], x% y 时期，在这个阶段，买入并持有的收益很好。除了比特币减半临近，加
7 S" y* d4 p/ |3 y
/ c* n% P4 Z% Y3 ~: `- h' q密资产监管合规之路出现重要转折点，比特币ETF推出似也呼之欲出。据* v( R" k/ K7 }9 |. i' c0 `
2 P- Y1 n" n" l: W- v* r) Z5 P) o" G
《比推》报道，2023年8月，法庭文件显示，华盛顿一个由三名法官组成0 C4 v$ z, F" _. c9 R% ?0 C! m* T
A/ C) b# A' O
的上诉小组推翻了美国证交会（SEC）阻止灰度 ETF 的决定。据《比推》
( S6 \- M0 g% W& S. l% m8 z: c
% h* t& y( a" z( [) f$ ?报道，在Ripple案中，10 月 3 日，法官Torres 驳回了 SEC的上诉请求；
6 O5 ]" M* I1 S
) B) [" v. b" ]/ [+ T( S/ E+ W10月19日，灰度在X平台发文表示已提交了S-3表格，作为将GBTC转换为
! b. M" ?7 J, {" a5 J) Y3 D9 }, r8 y) z' p
ETF的努力的一部分。” 从近期美联储谈话看，美联储降息也基本确定。
% B# d8 t. R% J" v& q g1 R" c7 c& h4 [& X
据《比推》报道，美联储主席鲍威尔近日在新闻发布会上明确表达：降
9 I2 G2 q6 b2 x& L9 i9 b8 Y, T! y8 F7 p) y+ A& J; \7 x% |
息已经进入决策视野，决策者正在思考、讨论合适降息合适。. _% S& i* A# I- Y# q
+ B% } x3 Q' q* ^% T. k
与巨大利好预期相对应的则是，千禧一代一边继承财富，一边拥抱加密2 D: F! m2 ~3 z: x' b
5 [7 [, E/ Z" ?) [: x9 U世界。据Galaxy研报显示：千禧一代即将迎来有史以来最大规模的财富
- C. y% _& f0 r5 j
1 f/ N* _' W2 q- J V0 q: M传承。尽管婴儿潮一代和更年长的一代只占美国成年人口的三分之一不
2 a2 q! Z* Z$ `( o" x: T: e* c6 M9 N( ?' ~8 q: ?( U, H! e5 O
到，但却共同拥有美国家庭财富的三分之二（96 万亿美元），是千禧一$ |! G3 R# i; p$ u6 ]
% i8 ], C2 U& b# n1 X* o代及更年轻一代财富的 11 倍以上。受到多次经济衰退、高昂的住房成
6 b5 b! g# M. }9 R) D
1 e" h( e+ y: @" Z k* G8 m本和沉重的债务负担的影响，这些年轻一代更愿意接受替代性的金融体* n5 v6 z g& Q3 Z3 m8 q
5 J9 F/ Q! X$ B+ H) F5 n. ~系和投资，包括加密货币。许多调查显示，这一代相较父辈，对加密货! n( q6 [. {) ]; Q
% R/ I9 e5 t$ C4 [" d
币的采用或接受率至少高出 3 倍。估算表明，财富转移的影响可能导致7 X( [: ?3 {4 M' @; g! q
* a" o/ Y' r; ~5 h f/ L& ^& D
未来 20 年内加密市场每天增加 2000 万至 2800 万美元的购买力。财富! o% e7 `. e; @: H2 H
5 {* M+ j+ g+ b& p& g
/权力向年轻一代的人口结构转变是不可避免的，这对加密货币是个好兆头。
+ Q I* Y; F" Y7 y* A- O
$ I; p, F$ V* a2 o, }# m7 H) L, e2 q- g: J9 W9 W5 Q% r
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