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[虚拟币资讯]
币世界余勋6.2 缩表为弥补去年放水 而放水初期低点其实就在5.19两万七 长线以此为据
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在大部分人认为6月的50加息+缩表、基本在5月的下行中、得到有效释放、 / [& } U( b0 |8 a. ~
余勋也不例外、
1 L5 L u3 ~) j其中最关键的是美联储26号纪要、会灵活对待加息。 8 G4 T! g# K7 T# M( Z Q3 p
是保经济的重要决策！
' J* @9 s [9 B$ U- B; @) Y这其中美股迎来了阶段连涨、大饼也四连阳、
- U. q; S5 f: t& z1 C0 |0 q& t低点26700-32400、
0 j& q/ @2 T7 q( S. h反弹近六千点、以太低点反弹近300点。 # q3 p' u: K1 r3 B5 e% ?$ e
但仅仅在缩表两个交易日、
S; [+ b |3 s( O. _8 L5 w大饼回撤幅度达到三千点、以太近200点。
+ q, L2 u' o1 t6 a涨幅就已回撤过半！ " |' a1 U' T$ _# U
所以暂时来看，期待的靴子落地效应基本告吹。 6 Z4 [) [$ _4 j' I4 t: F. S
不是利空没有得到释放、是市场做多情绪无法调动。
6 E2 z: k V- ], O- _其次、
+ C4 d4 |" {+ ?8 N" y3 L( j* d缩表大致会延续至2024年初、 5 V n& R( n9 ?7 a, ~
每月950亿、直至达到1.5万亿美元、
+ {3 Q9 O2 Y: W等于说、这期间会持续在蓄水池中进行抽水。
6 Q7 q( M8 @& O美股想大肆上行也是有心无力。 3 }+ V$ [4 o e; |. R
但回到币圈、
& @9 k1 A+ L0 R: K. `" p4 L# |去年牛市因5.19去中心化大跌、 . L5 n7 `5 ], J' P* b0 @9 C. s
在27000附近。美联储大幅度在放水、迎来第二轮周期牛市。 / L B+ @8 E, ^, I3 k
而现在弥补这个放水漏洞、而行情其实已经在放水底部附近。 + l8 W( Y4 ~5 |
个人认为、在经历了加息初期、中期恐慌、 % h! {% S$ D% Z. a1 w
缩表虽是实质利空，但终究是缓慢的。
8 ]8 g! o7 n7 I9 O* i7 ]7 M对当前的底部、影响有限。
8 O( P q* [7 {6 \" L* s0 E最不济、缩表启动至结束、行情依然处于放水初期币圈阶段。也就是当前27000-30000附近。
1 @) X+ |) H* |; J/ ^所以27000、即是 a) h$ y0 J! T# r' {
去年5.19低点、也是今年5.12（加息50基点+缩表恐慌低点）
% [; R! R* D6 B* `5 z' s同时还是去年放水初期低点、 " i. v% u6 \+ i
也会是今年缩表弥补去年放水周期的低点。
3 U, Q* I' p) I( }* S. Z* `# ]6 b8 _由此得出的结论是、 6 V* e6 M9 w+ M- Z$ T& [
加息+缩表等实质利空、市场年度最大创伤、底部就在27000附近、而以太就在1700附近。
8 |+ I9 s% e" m/ F! ?点位不会出现太大偏离。
7 b$ T" N7 U, p5 J( _' G2 |综合以上、 , I# g4 |/ L( _5 f
美股逐渐消化了加息、也开启缩表缓慢抽水、
4 W+ l9 {7 m0 h9 ^在整个运行过程中、会由初期的恐慌、缓慢下行，逐渐适应、止跌、然后徐徐补涨。 9 h! r4 p# {$ ~; ~$ m7 m
那操作上、无非缺乏了长线效应、
f. v1 I- ^* f' g0 y0 Z; w1 l; i% q抬头大肆上涨、条件匮乏！下行、最大利空由当初的注水点、再到完全调离这些注入资金。低点其实也都在这附近。
R+ w# m9 s5 F/ b3 g8 d那行情其实还是围绕三万点、进行弱势整理。 # m g! M/ b: @ Y( A9 C1 u
即难深跌、也难大涨，直至缩表有效、通胀得到控制。 6 T$ D9 o3 _1 V3 X0 b
美股适应上行、市场逐步接受开始回暖。
/ y) m; D4 E7 m4 ~6 ]2 I$ |7 C夜间美股走势平平、虽弱但不跌。
1 J W( o2 U* r4 Q. I6 H大饼无需追空、给一空间点位、 W, w+ N# u) G8 B9 B7 v
逢28000附近、以太1720附近可做短线接多点。 0 r! N4 I* W) f( F* k$ l- y
高空需至31700-32000间布局、
) ^: Q% c& w: Z1 w+ F# A! q反之、空间不够、进场始终趋于震荡区中轨、
2 z( t2 a& A3 N5 x% v' S7 u7 U得不偿失。 / C/ t0 w. t4 H2 Q+ T
来源：金色财经 |
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