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[虚拟币交流]
分析师：比特币价格可能在2022年跌至1.4万美元，但现在“买入是最好的选择”
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研究称，比特币今年将面临“周期底部”，可能会从目前的水平下跌超过50%。
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( o, J& W) @. [* Q& L( S% G+ w在6月1日的一篇推特帖子中，链上分析平台CryptoQuant的撰稿人Venturefounder预测，2022年是比特币“投降”的一年。8 b7 @8 J, @# ?
* g1 [& z5 k& a; e, Q) X1 r比特币现在拥有“有史以来最好的3年投资回报率”
, i# f0 }& H0 }Venturefounder写道，根据比特币减半周期的历史模式，今年应该是当前四年周期中的熊市害群之马。3 K) [3 x: F. u$ ?1 ]" y" Q
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就像2018年和它的熊市一样，BTC/USD应该会在2022年的某个时候找到自己的宏观底部，如果计算以前从历史高点的跌幅，这可能在14000美元到21000美元之间。3 k1 T6 x+ f8 w0 ^
5 [3 T; \% n. }/ A“距离比特币下一次减半还有670天，与过去的周期相比，我们按时看到了比特币的表现，”一条推文解释道：: k) P2 P/ k3 v
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“在接下来的670天里，BTC将在接下来的6个月里投降，并触及周期底部(14-21k美元)，然后在2023年的大部分时间里达到2.8 -40k美元，并在下一次减半之前再次达到~40k美元。”4 {: k- L8 U( a* ^; `( A# n3 ^8 {' H
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这样的预测虽然不是什么好消息，但也不是没有先例的。在2018年12月触及3100美元后，比特币在7个月后设法回到13800美元，然后再次逆转下行，在2020年3月的低点3600美元见底。
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即使是2019年的最高价格也不足以打破2017年12月创下的历史最高纪录——20000美元。
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Venturefounder认为，这一水平可能再次成为现货价格图表的一个特征。尽管如此，那些愿意乘势投资的人(即便是现在)还是会站在历史正确的一边。
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% q! }' ^3 B/ `" @0 ~. e“换句话说，从现在到未来6-12个月，购买比特币是最好的选择。这可能是有史以来最好的3年投资回报率，”他补充道：6 Z( B1 _1 F7 h, D5 u
. r+ o0 L! b6 K“我们可能没有在周期底部，但我们在BTC周期底部的范围内。这是你在把握市场周期时能做的最好的事情。”9 C% ?2 _, p2 H% q: b4 C! c
& Z+ U3 h( C4 A: t& P7 U v/ g底部预测不断出现
2 j/ t: u" U8 H! O8 R2 [$ }( n与此同时，其他人已经估计可能的底部范围在14000美元或附近。
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这一价格将比目前的历史高点69000美元下跌约80%。
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链上分析公司Glassnode的数据显示，目前31000美元左右的价格相对来说是一个较小的降幅。, ?9 C; I6 t2 P
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BTC/USD从历史高点回落 来源：Glassnode
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( ?8 E1 U, E! K% B3 a. a上月，同行分析师Rekt Capital估计，一旦BTC/USD跌破200周移动平均线，其潜在目标价为15500美元。' T# s0 c/ ^+ P0 v4 o& e
5 v% P, o6 Y& t% i卖家要将市场推低到如此之低可能会遇到困难。持有最多比特币的上市公司MicroStrategy承诺，只要比特币价格接近20000美元大关，它就买入。: f, |. L6 i3 e4 j% t
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交易巨头BitMEX前首席执行官Arthur Hayes也证实，他对20000美元的比特币感兴趣。7 b5 o4 j2 C( a% Y- |, B5 Z
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