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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑
' H; y: r2 o0 `3 B$ C/ X* f/ a/ y4 p# R- a1 ^9 v! c
6 O1 a s9 Q" _. t+ t7 \& ?& E! O凯利指数的计算方法： ( O1 m2 a L3 d; F& D k3 A# d: z8 U8 n3 x
( t6 [8 \4 i/ i7 B1 c( S
G3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔，B:平赔，F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率，B'欧平均平率，F'欧平均负率)% `# E& n8 x7 W' ]+ m( @
什么？对于一家特定的公司，它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'！你选择的公司样本不同，G值就不同，样本大小不同，G值也不同（一般的欧均值都取99家公司，从统计学的意义上来讲，还称不上样本！）这个G带有随意性，大个0.05小个0.08之类的，也只能算做误差，现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大？我大你个0.05怎么了？我小你个0.08又有什么干系? H% P+ \' B9 l U8 T. [
* V9 B% ~& n9 I/ B; r+ w1 k x3 O9 X7 q, y" ~4 @( m6 {
& t" ]0 @) w! L( u* H% h) k1 X2 P7 _2 R) p: M; ~6 r
既然涉及到平均胜率，那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的：平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n，S1'是第一家公司的主胜率，S2'是第二家公司的主胜率，以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率（返还率）又是这样求的：r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F)，什么？？又做梦了！！返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的，这样也行？？AC米兰踢亚特兰大，哨响了，投注比固定了，但踢出3，这场返还率可能是150%，踢出1可能是20%，踢出0，可能是5%，结果不同，返还率也不同啊！这里也可以看到，博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛，因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛，但强队踢假球的成本更高，它想操控也操控不了，最好的选择就是烧烧香：天哪，爆个冷吧！ q. ?: H7 }; W k" ?, Q
7 e6 Z/ _5 C5 S: K8 T8 s6 \6 |1 r8 c. J
做下算术了： 2 i( y$ \ W: ~: {8 \" `
4 v% e3 U, O' \! F7 D: H8 K$ b; ~' L. y! k5 F, M& W+ d2 U {0 l# j- j- J1 H
(1)SSP： 2.22 3.15 3.01 : `4 u/ N9 a2 y W3 e8 }9 n" P6 l! p& d) O, t8 `
4 G% K; _$ H/ L; [% C3 v(2)立博： 2.10 3.25 3.00 & {* i9 q N6 y% H5 F/ c* B: Y
' K5 y# p5 |7 d' _! M& r9 F
(3)威廉： 2.20 3.10 2.87 : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [ t
1 t* Y* X1 ]% [) }( f8 `+ s5 a6 w- M+ w! P
(4)易胜博：2.25 3.10 2.95
/ [- F6 @: j/ T! H4 }- U+ {+ l. `) m% ~. _- Q/ E8 K, \+ r! {) `7 L
我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值
5 T# z$ s% a) _$ v5 V5 F8 F, p$ }' ]( i% c
* v) y) O7 d8 y# @* Z qS1=2.22 B1=3.15 F1=3.01
6 \$ r q7 f1 A; x
* E1 ]6 l2 l' `4 j! [3 t" hS2=2.10 B2=3.25 F2=3.00 ( |. n' H2 u. W9 e9 W
% ^# T/ X4 W2 j% ] s
6 x0 r. y4 t) F8 [* x6 ^5 s; VS3=2.20 B3=3.10 F3=2.87 $ J ^ e5 `0 O1 G; a- l9 r
9 A' e& q. H7 B1 c9 S5 j1 j) A' I5 i; }9 v) D4 N; V
S4=2.25 B14=3.10 F4=2.95 ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y G+ \
3 }$ ~ `, _) X2 U N+ l8 w( d5 ` _0 H- N/ h7 V4 v
' z9 V3 y$ D! c1 \3 b6 A1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01 => r1=0.91
: s4 r9 A7 U$ R8 `+ p- g" u' v# P$ Z! S
1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00 => r2=0.90 # t0 ?( P e* X% l& |3 z9 N, C' A/ T# `8 e
2 d- J. ?8 t. c7 K9 j3 O7 k1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87 => r3=0.89 % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q
7 U9 a5 e& c3 K/ B, ^" I2 ~- A- m
1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95 => r4=0.90 , ~' i4 w+ R) C! U! S& V! P
: G+ x9 Y- y- K6 r
0 C- Y. x) ]$ h( Q* ]7 P" pS1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41 : W# q# m$ g# T8 i& I v6 O3 Y U9 O$ f
- `& s2 ^; `0 F2 i8 n) W# L7 _类似的计算后，于是： # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M j
) b5 R# f/ b* i1 ]
* W4 r: L' E# Q& t$ E- vS1'=41 B1'=29 F1'=30;
) s) F; \$ J) e; j# a3 O; m; n+ b! k+ P' K: g
S2'=43 B2'=28 F2'=30 3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s. z& O- M t& M
; m' V% T, u, P% O# }" o' ~) n' i( _
S3'=40 B3'=29 F3'=31 1 k5 r6 h! L% o5 R8 W. T" k0 |
6 z5 K/ n5 u, C9 L, h+ }+ O/ i% a
. D. D% h6 p [2 PS4'=40 B4'=29 F4'=31
4 ~9 d' c8 J7 L" b: B6 y" Y' M2 }4 T/ O0 g4 ~
8 ]* o4 K' X" t% V7 a; f/ J(注意：3,4两家公司，赔率不同，但它们的胜，平，负率相同了) 8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o8 j6 j( d$ j( V9 e
* R9 Y/ Q" p9 \6 g0 T! I* Y0 l+ }3 R- Y
好：S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41 / s, f2 t! x- O9 _$ r5 I: D& a" L
) q( ], k9 L T& t6 K8 `' r2 {5 P+ ]1 o! l& }, M
B'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75 ( P. o% q/ C. M0 I- c8 e: t
* R2 P/ i, ]5 x3 q" k
F'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5
0 |7 j6 `7 F' }! g
( ~# o' r! o" @- V于是： / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P E8 u9 j! |0 ?
& G( ^. t+ E7 u* O( {$ n( @* \9 E ]' p: I. D7 h. {
/ N0 | ]0 }$ W# ^; X! N* ]+ a& KG31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02 ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M
! J9 z8 ]7 x4 M5 V3 R+ D$ n) P# X# M
! @8 b/ @( W8 I: P0 K+ O6 B, \ ]G11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56 0 i5 B% r7 F" m- i0 ^* t2 z2 ]
& I% B+ B7 u9 K! W
G01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8 2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ]
, }2 l% ~ x7 T f! ~( m( p" u7 ^6 {' R+ q8 w1 O* B5 R3 a
当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得，当然，事实上你不用去求（每场比赛这样求，不累死也气死了），赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。 好，到这里你应该可以知道了，凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了，因为除了赔率是真的，其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的（并非是攻击凯利指数，这个，前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了）。 + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \/ X" a- u' }6 i) S! d+ r/ J2 a1 }1 N% p
6 C* |* h W0 f7 S7 s3 A2 @. G$ i. h; |( B! U, j) J" K# L* b0 f6 j
通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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