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[体育菠菜心得方法] 再论赔率统计 --新手胡说八道
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1#
以威廉为标准，只统计 英超，西甲，意甲
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只跟踪一个联赛+ Y# g% h4 z5 A

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& F2 t) D; w) b1 W5 l3 ~全塞季  分别买 主胜，  平，   负赔
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三条线  ，三年统计结果  全部亏水钱，积少成多也不少啊 ，最后收益差别不大，2 j3 K! q( t- Z) e! D0 `  \

4 v. N9 U3 p7 W% M1 t# w偶尔年份  平或 负赔会高一点。3 {2 r% i! j7 ?" u/ v& o

; G, G2 r7 j- i9 F- P方法：  全程跟踪一个联赛，一个塞季， 只买一边， 主胜 或负赔（平局出现相对概率要少）* |1 z3 e( @' T) T8 {
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然后通过基本面或盘赔特征，排除一部分球赛， 最后你买的那边胜率就会增高， 只需要增高一点，3 g4 Z/ s1 H& O5 H, l% L- Y/ t
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就可以做到 一边持平或赚水钱，  然后就是不断累积经验，多排除一些球赛，多赚一点水钱# s1 {6 d' ^( M( F8 q2 P9 ?0 w6 N6 c8 d
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当经验积累到一定程度， 足球就成了一种长期投资 项目% S- C. A$ p& D! t% c$ O

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0 _5 [' p& C8 c$ r亚盘没有统计，想当然，  低水胜出概率高点，  让盘方胜出概率高点，只有两个方向容易判断，; n1 @1 _8 K0 Z3 d! E  ?

1 ]+ T  u5 ]) o而且亚盘返还率要高一点， 选低水+让球方，一个联赛一个赛季全程跟踪，开始肯定输水钱，
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  H/ O& X: p+ h" R5 u1 u; y但是只要累计经验去排除一些明显打不出来的球赛就可以了，就可以把水钱赚回来。! z8 Z/ `. p0 Q9 f4 |

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' ]0 J8 w/ d- x& A0 a+ i6 j* x/ U理论依据： 只买一边 ，一定不会让你亏多少，因为大联赛大庄都是平衡的，一个联赛一个赛季一定平衡。
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排除比选择要容易积累经验， 而且学习排除法 那些不可能出现  ，比那些可能出现 要容易判断

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顶起再慢慢看

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2#
以上的方法 是不可能赚多少钱的，
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但是每个赛季 5-10%， 是可以做到的，, y' k1 [# K+ `

0 V# y2 n, u3 R3 F- {0 x" a% _这比买国债存银行合算。3 L6 r) U- H* |7 v
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在DC赚大钱的人，都是用高风险去博高收益，风险大利润才高，
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4 l4 y  j$ {8 e7 F0 k几次发现十几倍的负赔，就是不敢去，买了平，这就是人性。4 n" A7 t. a! f, t% O

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* |) x; ^7 X& u6 w0 X常胜的人收益一定不会高到那里去。' f4 B$ k+ D2 X! C0 V( @
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放弃一夜暴富，放弃神奇的方法， 放弃高的胜率，! \8 O% x8 t# B

6 w8 A. W0 M' [# j4 l6 c: v, }就是回避了大的亏损，
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- l6 l- b* F5 T! U& n' |, A. H& g大亏，小亏，小赢，大赢，  DC就这四种结果，; K; P! F: H$ Q- P+ W- ]0 L9 D
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回避了大亏，用经验避免小亏，就只剩下 赢了。

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