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[体育菠菜心得方法] 再论赔率统计 --新手胡说八道
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1#
以威廉为标准，只统计 英超，西甲，意甲
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只跟踪一个联赛
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全塞季  分别买 主胜，  平，   负赔' }0 W2 Q9 |) p" p

% R8 \7 h5 ]  N三条线  ，三年统计结果  全部亏水钱，积少成多也不少啊 ，最后收益差别不大，) [) W( k  j# L' t

" Q/ h8 \0 ^' S( S4 v8 Y偶尔年份  平或 负赔会高一点。, x+ q' y! g/ o2 r- N) r

( \+ t  e) A, Y1 U% w* E0 Z方法：  全程跟踪一个联赛，一个塞季， 只买一边， 主胜 或负赔（平局出现相对概率要少）+ w5 e% z6 p; v) J, E# ]
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然后通过基本面或盘赔特征，排除一部分球赛， 最后你买的那边胜率就会增高， 只需要增高一点，6 t, l) \1 n7 L' P  f: _% |' G
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就可以做到 一边持平或赚水钱，  然后就是不断累积经验，多排除一些球赛，多赚一点水钱9 _2 J( z7 G1 r7 _

( ?% y# A$ T" ~  \当经验积累到一定程度， 足球就成了一种长期投资 项目: F( O7 K8 R) K6 W& z$ u

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亚盘没有统计，想当然，  低水胜出概率高点，  让盘方胜出概率高点，只有两个方向容易判断，0 ^" w+ L5 @+ E# w' e
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而且亚盘返还率要高一点， 选低水+让球方，一个联赛一个赛季全程跟踪，开始肯定输水钱，4 o2 C5 f8 Y2 F+ c# Q1 a
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但是只要累计经验去排除一些明显打不出来的球赛就可以了，就可以把水钱赚回来。
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理论依据： 只买一边 ，一定不会让你亏多少，因为大联赛大庄都是平衡的，一个联赛一个赛季一定平衡。7 N  |- C# t5 `) s# @( h6 l

% M+ l6 b; y* |2 c( Y" T. Q1 D排除比选择要容易积累经验， 而且学习排除法 那些不可能出现  ，比那些可能出现 要容易判断

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顶起再慢慢看

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以上的方法 是不可能赚多少钱的，
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4 P+ R' V+ u0 }8 B" j但是每个赛季 5-10%， 是可以做到的，
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3 P- ]  i' |+ l; y2 n- i+ y这比买国债存银行合算。# E' K6 C/ F  Z; Y) s
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在DC赚大钱的人，都是用高风险去博高收益，风险大利润才高，' C) f  s$ y4 z
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几次发现十几倍的负赔，就是不敢去，买了平，这就是人性。+ C0 N( J7 s' l1 Z) a
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常胜的人收益一定不会高到那里去。# F# e( R+ L! E5 q

. L( d* Y  T! c$ K放弃一夜暴富，放弃神奇的方法， 放弃高的胜率，
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9 B5 d6 a* ]! a0 Z7 J# E就是回避了大的亏损，2 f( p2 s$ T6 V  X: E5 [5 m  E
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大亏，小亏，小赢，大赢，  DC就这四种结果，! k- p1 q3 d% H3 Y4 \
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回避了大亏，用经验避免小亏，就只剩下 赢了。

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