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[真人] 百家樂投注研究二
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第二節 百家樂收益率的研究

賭戲分析的根本的是研究賭戲的賭博策略和相應的收益率。從表面看來百家樂似乎沒有和二十一點類似的策略,但它和二十一點一樣,用了多副牌,一局牌要玩很多輪,可以預料,百家樂也應該存在著一個浮動的收益率。

從前一節對百家樂基本資料的計算可以看出,這時計算出的是所有的牌都還在牌盒里,一張牌也還沒有發出時的收益率。

在荷官剛洗完牌,游戲尚未開始進行之前的初始狀態,在一副牌中,每種牌平均都有4張;隨著游戲的進行,這種狀態被打破,會出現各種各樣的偏離初始狀態的情形。和研究二十一點採用的方法一樣,我們首先研究比較特殊的情形,即平均到一副牌時,單獨一種牌數量的變化對賭客收益率的影響,以便認識這種牌在百家樂中的作用,從而得到對所有牌作用的認識。 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

假設某種牌的數量不是4張,而是比其他的牌多出了X張,爲4+0.5X張,那麼其余的12種牌必須少掉0.5X張才能保持數量上的平衡,爲了研究方便,我們認爲這12種牌的機會都一樣,他們都以相同的概率出現。這樣,在一副牌中多出X張的牌出現的概率爲:

(4+0.5X )/52=1/13×(1+X/8)

其余的牌出現的概率爲: ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

(4-0.5X/12)/52=1/13×(1-X/96)

在8副牌的情況下,X的可能取值爲-8爲X爲56。

和前一節的過程類似,我們可以得到對應于每一個X的取值下的收益率,在此我們省略推算過程,直接給出每種牌從少8張到多出25張的情況下,百家樂的收益率。

一 莊 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>


, O3 P' C4 o/ m" N/ }賭客的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系 X= 少牌或多牌的種類
5 J. b% E+ G6 F10A23456789
) p/ }: ^! {% Z-8-1.003-0.905-0.866-0.921-0.743-1.263-1.528-1.405-1.230-1.159& x3 F* U1 s- q$ ^& a; |' a  v( J; n
-7-1.008-0.925-0.894-0.928-0.773-1.250-1.462-1.354-1.211-1.146
  ~6 R) T7 R+ H- X+ I-6-1.013-0.945-0.920-0.939-0.806-1.234-1.398-1.306-1.192-1.133
" ?. E6 o: {- Q+ l; p9 t-5-1.020-0.966-0.946-0.953-0.842-1.213-1.336-1.261-1.171-1.120
) Q+ m/ n3 x3 g3 {% ^% Z-4-1.027-0.985-0.971-0.970-0.881-1.189-1.277-1.218-1.151-1.108( Q$ u- B# m# R6 M/ J
-3-1.035-1.005-0.995-0.989-0.923-1.162-1.220-1.177-1.129-1.096" i0 \0 h  J! q- `
-2-1.044-1.025-1.018-1.012-0.968-1.132-1.166-1.138-1.108-1.085) |1 r: C/ x2 j. F7 {
-1-1.054-1.045-1.041-1.037-1.015-1.099-1.114-1.100-1.086-1.0747 C* J, v+ x4 u( W. [
0-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.0643 u* m. b! V* T8 J: v" c' n
1-1.075-1.083-1.087-1.094-1.115-1.027-1.016-1.029-1.042-1.054! x, m' e2 h2 j1 s3 f: O* ?
2-1.087-1.102-1.109-1.125-1.169-0.987-0.970-0.994-1.019-1.0456 e5 l. X% j: _  L; g5 e
3-1.099-1.121-1.132-1.159-1.224-0.946-0.927-0.960-0.997-1.036
, a* P1 e" Y$ p; k7 T4-1.113-1.140-1.155-1.195-1.281-0.903-0.885-0.927-0.975-1.0283 A7 t) y+ c4 J$ d5 Y3 m8 I% V
5-1.126-1.158-1.179-1.232-1.339-0.859-0.845-0.894-0.953-1.020
4 H: w7 r/ C6 u: L5 ]- @6-1.141-1.176-1.203-1.271-1.398-0.814-0.807-0.862-0.930-1.013
& }- S% }" G1 [! v  m; c7-1.156-1.194-1.228-1.312-1.458-0.767-0.771-0.829-0.909-1.0075 _2 j* e6 X0 p
8-1.172-1.212-1.254-1.353-1.519-0.720-0.736-0.796-0.887-1.001" D. @. E3 G. B: A1 s
9-1.188-1.230-1.281-1.396-1.580-0.672-0.703-0.763-0.866-0.996
. S8 V+ k$ T6 E) F" ?1 _10-1.204-1.247-1.309-1.440-1.642-0.624-0.672-0.729-0.845-0.992
, r" |8 z! v/ n/ M& {11-1.221-1.264-1.339-1.484-1.704-0.575-0.642-0.695-0.824-0.988
( Y, E8 ]; P9 Q$ V; N12-1.239-1.281-1.370-1.530-1.766-0.526-0.614-0.661-0.804-0.985: l4 A% R, p* D; M/ f/ h% e
13-1.257-1.298-1.403-1.576-1.828-0.477-0.587-0.626-0.784-0.982  D- Q0 I. [" o* j$ {6 x, ]
14-1.275-1.314-1.437-1.622-1.890-0.428-0.562-0.590-0.765-0.980! R) h7 X; V* t" b0 V+ k
15-1.294-1.330-1.473-1.668-1.951-0.379-0.538-0.553-0.747-0.9798 h& j0 i4 I  \6 N6 }
16-1.313-1.346-1.512-1.715-2.011-0.331-0.515-0.515-0.729-0.9798 G# z3 X$ \8 ?8 c
17-1.332-1.362-1.552-1.761-2.071-0.284-0.493-0.476-0.712-0.9795 T* v* R  \0 x( D4 n5 K8 e, F7 D
18-1.351-1.377-1.595-1.808-2..130-0.237-0.473-0.436-0.696-0.979# H1 E: a. _0 H1 G* B! R* F
19-1.371-1.393-1.641-1.854-2.187-0.190-0.453-0.394-0.680-0.981
7 _1 A% a2 l5 t) a; X) N20-1.390-1.408-1.689-1.900-2.243-0.145-0.435-0.352-0.665-0.983& u2 i% B  {# H7 [: c8 v$ t7 E3 c6 T
21-1.410-1.422-1.739-1.945-2.298-0.101-0.418-0.308-0.651-0.986
+ ]5 R7 l0 B# x22-1.429-1.437-1.793-1.989-2.351-0.058-0.402-0.262-0.638-0.989
% M2 U' u( A) O7 v* O8 }: j23-1.448-1.451-1.850-2.033-2.403-0.016-0.387-0.215-0.626-0.993
0 x# C8 }3 X- s$ F6 f8 `24-1.467-1.465-1.909-2.076-2.4520.024-0.374-0.166-0.614-0.997
, E* g' @3 i/ N% e/ F( }. f25-1.486-1.479-1.972-2.117-2.5000.063-0.361-0.116-0.604-1.002
) J$ P2 J0 d) F0 g5 j

從表可以看出,X=0時押莊的收益率和前一節計算出的有細微的差別,這是由于這里的計算是根據少牌或多牌的張數對1/13作修正來代替牌實際出現的概率造成的,但結果的精度還是相當高的。

由表可以得出結論,剩牌中“10”、“A”、“2”、“3”、“4”多,押莊的收益率減小,其中以“4”的影響最大,“10“最弱。

剩牌中“5”、“6”、“7”、“8”、“9”多,押莊的收益率增加,其中以“5”的影響最大,“9“最弱。 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

但押莊的收益率隨X值的變化并不明顯,只有在極爲極端的情況下,才有收益率大于0的情況出現。 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

爲便于認識每種牌對押莊收益率的改善程度,現在列出相對于X=0時押莊收益率的變化值。

. G# ^9 M- L, n: ?/ c2 V
表7-2-4 賭客的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系 X= 少牌或多牌的種類( {9 i2 U6 Q3 m& X
10A234567897 x, f# i( h5 R3 C
-80.0610.1590.1980.1430.321-0.199-0.464-0.341-0.166-0.095
/ K% j+ Z0 g% I/ e-70.0560.1390.1700.1360.291-0.187-0.398-0.290-0.147-0.082/ o5 G0 w, z1 Q& d3 O
-60.0510.1190.1440.1250.258-0.170-0.334-0.242-0.128-0.069
; j5 U4 `. j3 \" d! l. e-50.0440.0980.1180.1110.222-0.149-0.272-0.197-0.107-0.0567 i! d# `" z( ?& F
-40.0370.0790.0930.0940.183-0.125-0.213-0.154-0.087-0.044
( u6 f( \6 ^6 N7 J  C-30.0290.0590.0690.0750.141-0.098-0.156-0.113-0.065-0.032
7 h  ^0 d. W. Y, `8 |$ O% a-20.0200.0390.0460.0520.096-0.068-0.102-0.074-0.044-0.021
& h. Y- M. v1 E-10.0100.0190.0230.0270.049-0.035-0.050-0.036-0.022-0.010
6 ?4 H; A6 m, u2 {) s00.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000  T  a8 Q$ X% C; d% q
1-0.011-0.019-0.023-0.030-0.0510.0370.0480.0350.0220.010  X, R: e! I3 t' O# C" s1 c
2-0.023-0.038-0.045-0.061-0.1050.0770.0940.0700.0450.019
: t: C+ v3 R2 u8 k  I3-0.035-0.057-0.068-0.095-0.1600.1180.1370.1040.0670.028$ S  U7 X3 G. w
4-0.049-0.076-0.091-0.131-0.2170.1610.1790.1370.0890.036  h0 l8 E+ P! B3 @# y) M
5-0.062-0.094-0.115-0.168-0.2750.2050.2190.1700.1110.044
0 ?* C( P- E1 q  T6-0.077-0.112-0.139-0.207-0.3340.2500.2570.2020.1340.0519 w* j+ t# p8 t9 h7 l  @3 `3 W
7-0.092-0.130-0.164-0.248-0.3940.2970.2930.2350.1550.057
  D  {% L& E1 S+ j# o8-0.108-0.148-0.190-0.289-0.4550.3440.3280.2680.1770.063+ v" U% l  ?+ a. z* {7 B1 {
9-0.124-0.166-0.217-0.332-0.5160.3920.3610.3010.1980.0687 D. G5 P( j! {& N' W' [% U
10-0.140-0.183-0.245-0.376-0.5780.4400.3920.3350.2190.072
) A" h) H6 e5 J7 O" f11-0.157-0.200-0.275-0.420-0.6400.4890.4220.3690.2400.076
2 {$ x, m7 U. I5 M; l" G& L12-0.175-0.217-0.306-0.466-0.7020.5380.4500.4030.2600.079
1 O6 B& f( J( \0 ~6 B5 y; L/ w13-0.193-0.234-0.339-0.512-0.7640.5870.4770.4380.2800.082
! o7 a4 f* d1 o/ \6 g' z( u14-0.211-0.250-0.373-0.558-0.8260.6360.5020.4740.2990.084% @4 P  c1 I" h: i9 r4 n6 n
15-0.230-0.266-0.409-0.604-0.8870.6850.5260.5110.3170.085
/ ~; @" z. E6 @: h' }, Z. w16-0.249-0.282-0.448-0.651-0.9470.7330.5490.5490.3350.085
- z5 z: a/ Y6 z17-0.268-0.298-0.448-0.697-1.0070.7800.5710.5880.3520.085( @6 x3 _. j$ Q+ V" l2 Y
18-0.287-0.313-0.531-0.744-1.0660.8270.5910.6280.3680.085
$ d% z' N+ Q7 J9 @19-0.307-0.329-0.577-0.790-1.1230.8740.6110.6700.3840.083
+ x* D* l$ y0 {7 X20-0.326-0.344-0.625-0.836-1.1790.9190.6290.7120.3990.081  `  F) v' X- [. @) ]  P
21-0.346-0.358-0.675-0.881-1.2340.9630.6460.7560.4130.0784 v9 o" v! W4 V4 O
22-0.365-0.373-0.729-0.925-1.2871.0060.6620.8020.4260.075# O9 R- M4 P3 V  Q/ K: |0 {/ F
23-0.384-0.387-0.786-0.969-1.3391.0480.6770.8490.4380.071/ R  z# T: o1 h! a5 N
24-0.403-0.401-0.845-1.012-1.3881.0880.6900.8980.4500.067( N4 f* b$ _* a! S4 s3 T
25-0.422-0.415-0.908-1.053-1.4361.1270.7030.9480.4600.062
9 z8 A9 C  O2 |5 a  C

此表是總結百家樂算牌系統的依據。

二 閑 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

研究百家樂的收益率是同時得到“莊”、“閑”、“和”的結果,爲了讀起來更方便,我們把“莊”、“閑”、“和”的結果分別列出來,下面是押閑的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系。

' D' r6 A9 h9 w! @
押閑的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系 X= 少牌或多牌的種類
  k, o8 y0 ~& x6 o6 J6 [10A23456789
* H3 i' u+ F, Q1 n-8-1.285-1.389-1.432-1.373-1.558-1.024-0.759-0.884-1.044-1.122
" ]) g6 I, X  z  \& t  N0 x4 k8 A-7-1.280-1.369-1.404-1.366-1.528-1.038-0.827-0.936-1.066-1.137
* [" O* t) ]% n  F-6-1.275-1.348-1.377-1.356-1.494-1.055-0.892-0.985-1.089-1.152+ S, L1 ^) f1 i2 R/ S
-5-1.269-1.328-1.350-1.342-1.457-1.076-0.954-1.031-1.111-1.1662 R5 \6 I6 P- |
-4-1.263-1.308-1.325-1.325-1.417-1.101-1.0141.074-1.134-1.1809 L5 n* \/ T) z2 `, Q
-3-1.255-1.288-1.300-1.305-1.374-1.128-1.071-1.115-1.158-1.193
+ X1 F, v! ~& D7 c7 ]-2-1.247-1.268-1.276-1.282-1.328-1.159-1.126-1.155-1.181-1.205
% R* j. H9 p2 a8 Q2 R( B-1-1.238-1.248-1.252-1.256-1.279-1.192-1.178-1.192-1.205-1.217/ h& D" \! ^2 _! D
0-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228
2 l, M: o3 E) a& W. ^$ x1-1.218-1.209-1.205-1.197-1.175-1.266-1.276-1.263-1.252-1.239
: Z) {$ `) J, @& B* q- g9 }4 d2-1.206-1.189-1.181-1.164-1.120-1.306-1.321-1.297-1.275-1.249
' a# A4 m: J1 s* ~! G' R( x2 @3-1.194-1.170-1.157-1.129-1.063-1.348-1.364-1.330-1.298-1.2587 f6 E9 k/ K3 n' k0 ?+ U& g1 n
4-1.181-1.151-1.133-1.092-1.004-1.392-1.405-1.362-1.321-1.266
3 u% N1 B4 T; G) ~, W' ?& ?; m5-1.168-1.132-1.108-1.053-0.944-1.437-1.444-1.394-1.344-1.274: M$ y& ?6 O- p" I6 a1 m) e
6-1.153-1.114-1.083-1.012-0.883-1.483-1.482-1.426-1.367-1.281  S- T9 v4 b8 g9 r
7-1.138-1.095-1.057-0.969-0.821-1.530-1.517-1.458-1.389-1.2870 P2 ]& y. k( N  }! L
8-1.123-1.077-1.030-0.926-0.758-1.578-1.551-1.489-1.411-1.293
9 Q7 Y4 y) z( S/ r2 H9-1.107-1.059-1.002-0.880-0.694-1.627-1.583-1.521-1.432-1.298
) ^* N/ c, A# o0 l1 v( Q; Y* w10-1.090-1.042-0.972-0.834-0.630-1.676-1.613-1.553-1.453-1.302+ p  @1 i0 W( ~
11-1.072-1.024-0.941-0.787-0.566-1.726-1.641-1.586-1.473-1.306
- C3 E% Y4 U. w: \1 s$ X: Z12-1.054-1.007-0.909-0.739-0.501-1.776-1.669-1.619-1.493-1.308( B3 [' w, g/ m/ ?
13-1.035-0.990-0.875-0.690-0.437-1.825-1.694-1.653-1.512-1.310
2 S" n0 O6 n5 m: r3 q; a! @  n8 F8 x14-1.016-0.973-0.839-0.640-0.373-1.875-1.719-1.688-1.531-1.311
7 S' U* c8 c# J% m8 L15-0.997-0.957-0.801-0.590-0.309-1.925-1.742-1.724-1.548-1.311$ r- q# i- P& t. `0 N
16-0.976-0.940-0.761-0.540-0.246-1.974-1.763-1.761-1.565-1.311
+ Z6 d3 H' `6 k9 n1 J1 i( [  B2 k17-0.956-0.924-0.718-0.489-0.184-2.022-1.784-1.799-1.581-1.310
$ ], [1 X, m4 i7 s18-0.935-0.908-0.673-0.439-0.123-2.070-1.803-1.838-1.596-1.308* t5 r1 X+ z' z* N" P# ^
19-0.913-0.893-0.625-0.388-0.063-2.117-1.821-1.878-1.611-1.305
0 H( n" V% z  ^0 G20-0.891-0.877-0.575-0.338-0.004-2.163-1.838-1.920-1.624-1.3011 h7 a; [* C* g, O# @6 b' z$ M
21-0.869-0.862-0.521-0.2880.054-0.207-1.854-1.963-1.636-1.297
# ^; M, m. e3 u3 S, a22-0.847-0.847-0.465-0.2380.110-2.251-1.869-2.008-1.648-1.292
5 G4 _" |# x6 r4 y6 U: P23-0.824-0.832-0.405-0.1890.164-2.293-1.883-2.054-1.658-1.286. B7 f! y. S) {0 `/ F
24-0.801-0.818-0.343-0.1400.217-2.334-1.896-2.101-1.667-1.279( y5 n7 S% C( _0 D
25-0.777-0.804-0.276-0.0920.268-2.374-1.907-2.151-1.675-1.2721 f  E! e. H6 U3 {1 Q3 E

 

由表可以得出結論,剩牌中“10”、“A”、“2”、“3”、“4”多,押閑的收益率增加,其中以“4”的影響最大,“10“最弱。剩牌中“5”、“6”、“7”、“8”、“9”多,押閑的收益率減少,其中以“5”的影響最大,“9“最弱。但押閑的收益率隨X值的變化也不明顯,只有在極爲極端的情況下,才有收益率大于0的情況出現。爲便于認識每種牌對押閑收益率的改善程度,同樣也列出相對于X=0時押閑的收益率的變化值。

avatar
双色球的概率是100000000000000000000000000000000分之一中奖,不还是有很多人买吗?所以楼主被老弄这么多虚无缥缈的东西来唬人行不。
avatar
7#
我可能太笨了,不太懂,有谁看明白吗
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6#
似懂非懂………
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5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
我可能太笨了,不太懂,有谁看明白吗?
avatar
4#
我可能太笨了,不太懂,有谁看明白吗?楼主能不能简单一些
avatar
但是这个帖子感觉没怎么看懂
avatar
每次赌钱必先看一下
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:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
{:8_286:} {:8_287:} {:8_288:} {:8_289:}
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{:8_313:} {:8_314:} {:8_315:} {:8_316:}
{:8_317:} {:8_318:} {:8_319:} {:8_320:}
:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory:
:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake:
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