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于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。
" l, S; o& L: A* f" T% k! z2 C9 c* U" Z6 O. }9 N7 l
$ U# [' N' T& p7 @0 W. n/ e西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率
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以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:) ]5 p' G! T0 Y% w
2 |+ K! T; b) Q9 S2 q
皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54% 6 H1 F% r/ z: b) D
6 h- ~1 s- F4 t# I很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?8 f+ b: q9 i' C# F$ P) d+ F
8 r0 j/ j' }7 e答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)$ d& G( B8 f. b4 _& s
/ h* ^/ m( ]5 a' z Y/ M& A& |3 d, a& b& {0 b
以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?. {8 T# Q; Y+ g: c/ v! ^
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7 u2 ?) V) M- a; h: Q/ t盈利可能性, B9 Z' B U5 z, K! \0 z* G' Y0 x, f; C
5 L' ~2 u1 q- k. y
对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。
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9 J* Q& E8 P0 R, O增值: b3 ?, e% L [- \+ P9 K
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许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。
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4 i1 K3 H) T7 `你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?* ?- {/ W& g$ @% w a1 i
# i9 _! j0 d7 G% H1 s: {
a) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5
# F% U" |- M0 ^& Z6 k( a2 Q1 N( U/ j/ {$ H7 @. ]
正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么- G/ I: l/ c+ j7 E
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40%的机会你会收到150元的利润1 f9 m# \- n: [" E, J5 H
60%的机会你会一无所有
1 l: u( m2 Z$ A预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0 8 N$ U% A4 c+ [ Y4 U
由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。0 h& K# y, C8 r# s) o$ t
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增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。) O- p- F0 f; \- ?" x8 f' E+ e
. H) z9 V/ \! V# j基于增值的投注3 J7 Z! t1 b! F4 l
6 `3 ^, l# I8 A6 @* A9 i( o9 \1 Q+ ~凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。
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公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)
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( W1 F- R# M7 z/ R* {5 ?! u/ c7 _A=博彩资金
% M& j4 O: h/ Z! H6 P6 e3 l: rP=获胜机会
: U+ p& w& ~( _4 ], S% wO=总获得回报(包括投注本金)
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( ~ y0 I' T* y4 _6 {9 X0 m0 p首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。 T/ |3 d& d2 ]* r) q! G
- S) {# ~2 H( o8 V1 `好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。
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2 O: X. G4 \2 e+ Q0 a! N3 y% p1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)# V) }& P& p6 P0 W- a# o
; F% ^) X1 x9 t3 F# CA = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)
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A=0
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结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢9 s8 B* z; I% X
) ]8 G/ d! S1 _% m' }& s" w c2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)$ g ]# [. n/ w% Z$ y5 Z: U
7 P- N9 h! I! P' Z& XA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)* \. ?, ], N6 F8 h4 o2 S
7 c6 V' L" I3 T! N5 U
A=0.1
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结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去5 y: Y5 k8 k- j# q9 D/ _
; Z6 U: z( A5 F1 v6 e2 s3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2)
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I0 S; e% t' \7 E- w A+ }A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)0 H& {- W$ V( i. K$ w( i
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A= -0.2
0 M7 ~. g: [( D$ ^7 ^6 h! w6 N B }3 w0 p. Q& Q% ]; C7 T& U8 z4 y
结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好9 D6 X6 ]4 Q, u9 d
: v7 Y$ ^9 ^2 i x$ e1 m; C( E5 a第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
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