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于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。
' T" R# U6 z; W7 X1 Q- G# r$ h% q# w1 O
$ W3 Y1 ~! Z2 V2 }% n6 v" ]西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率: f7 ]% n$ q/ I% [" ?& k
2 V2 P+ u: g! e3 ~% Z( [+ B5 L% E
以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:$ p" ~3 W) ~: S8 l
% W) ] _5 H5 h$ r8 `, E" y皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54% ( q& V8 }# q' Z: i8 R9 p8 K
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很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?1 y) u. x2 L' c$ @1 J$ C4 B4 f
; E. p. H0 \: f, M答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)5 f0 L, W/ l# ]! F% w7 p: l
) j5 r0 v6 d; n+ b1 k
: M. G9 Z" h: W" L3 G3 G以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?
u: b. B! D( O; }/ @+ c3 e2 p. H7 ^6 V3 e8 a! U
* k8 C& l9 L, R" i2 Q" g2 u- L6 I盈利可能性% C0 D0 U1 V8 ~0 y
) b) E7 i) ^* l6 o# v7 Q对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。
; K7 c9 a; A8 l
9 J' U, k; i5 ?* p; X; `* ]1 k7 ^增值0 {* g5 [9 Y9 C/ [/ u7 N3 ^
8 [ H% U% [/ o7 ^- X
许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。1 }" b/ l e `' c7 }
2 P+ Q$ X, f& x1 U
你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?" g& u% I2 T1 W% ~
3 E) H* h! A) C* s: \
a) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5 $ H7 Z; D. m" @$ C: [- a0 i
! `' o4 X0 Z- ]; U. G正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么' o# y; T! e9 @, K( n
8 d% d; p# X% W; x2 m: Q* d. t0 B
40%的机会你会收到150元的利润
1 ^: ?- x# x9 I" F( o0 ]60%的机会你会一无所有$ x& r! k) T* a7 Y) [& I+ G
预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0
; b/ b3 c& |5 B0 x& n' w由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。
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9 H4 m; k5 H/ c0 b9 g0 C增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。5 y, ^6 N+ ^+ R7 s- q/ ~3 V
, @6 b. L! m; v, d6 }+ w1 Z
基于增值的投注* s4 Z: ~$ ` ?) F6 u# j
/ W$ V5 {+ y4 R# y6 H/ D! p8 g凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。9 K& y1 x, {& r2 ]! k4 {
. X7 u5 |& s. e' F% q3 I9 P
公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)3 ?; ^" W2 e, ]; e; ]
2 q4 s q4 p: t. UA=博彩资金) ~' [; r% k W6 B' a6 h) m3 R
P=获胜机会
: X' f+ a9 C/ |) t" k+ K. t; yO=总获得回报(包括投注本金)$ b' a: A' U0 t- H5 V
4 y# r8 P9 o. I6 e& Y2 `
首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。: ?' u8 x2 u# s0 h( H1 m1 e
$ u: V2 b% p. D' \% i好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。0 V) h+ ~: u% v$ m4 e
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1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)
, J- n) D7 [$ g$ z6 R2 p# H, i" q& j! K
A = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)
( [ m4 E& Y8 k% ~9 O; x/ P8 D) a3 a
A=0
f; T9 U2 Y, o& F, e1 M0 E8 c& F6 Z4 e, L2 _/ v
结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢
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' Q4 M U ~$ H8 Z2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)
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% o" k2 l" \2 pA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)+ N9 C$ {2 @5 X1 K( \ Q
. V5 G- [! u, ^5 k
A=0.1: j' S# O9 I8 W; o
4 V! L1 j {$ x, Y# v
结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去: ]8 d5 j( N; \$ [- u! Z
) p7 }4 H2 v0 r& |7 l: \
3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2)
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% z1 W& I- \% L; D. a4 AA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)
0 W: E6 H$ `; C. g$ ]) U8 Q9 a% P5 i" u. K7 F
A= -0.2 & f2 n2 R( q$ O: v* J% y8 X
D. h6 v* B+ e, ~1 K: m
结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好
& w% I+ C/ l" ^8 o8 u- R3 _, S2 I" M) \1 m9 S: }
第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
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