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[lastpost] => 2810639 SkyBridge 的 Scaramucci 趁比特币下跌买入,称特朗普为“加密货币总统”。(转) 1772543486 爱美的女人
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1. 宏观因素影响市场走势
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过去一周市场涨跌主要受宏观经济数据影响,包括美国未来的降息预期、上周的非农数据和失业率,以及本周即将公布的PPI与CPI数据。& ?# H0 v, D2 i ^6 u
( p. F3 ^5 E5 wPPI助推反弹:昨晚公布的PPI数据低于市场预期,被认为是近期少见的利好消息。PPI同比上涨3.3%(预期3.5%),核心PPI同比上涨3.5%(预期3.8%),这让市场信心得到了一定恢复。
. K6 k( g1 T. a1 C
; D' F& ~4 w: M) u6 I dCPI才是关键:今晚的CPI数据更为重要,市场预期CPI同比为2.9%(前值2.7%),核心CPI预期为3.3%。如果数据能保持在预期或持平的水平,大饼(比特币)可能重回10万美元上方,并延续市场的炒作行情。: r F; K5 {4 P5 P: \- @; e
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2. 比特币市场现状与未来预期6 y# Y: m5 D9 o) P; b
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当前持仓成本:0 m8 G ?) v9 _
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机构的平均持仓成本在8.1万美元左右;3 l- e; K, y6 ^9 ]& a& E
7 A6 s1 A. ` H2 @5 p微策略因早期进场,平均成本约为6.2万美元;
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( X5 F" v- R. |0 u! N$ C5 xETF持仓成本约在7万美元上下。
& C4 F! k7 H* @/ m
: H1 ~( ~. q" K5 D( F f比特币价值回归:3 U! s& T7 ^1 V$ S0 |6 f% |
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市场大部分散户的低价筹码已经交割完毕,当前持币主力成本价在6-8万美元区间。
" ]" k& B- e6 p7 @2 d
6 h7 r$ b& I) {3 U2 D6 Z随着更多公司和国家效仿萨尔瓦多将比特币纳入战略储备,比特币的流通将越来越少,机构预测其价格有望达到15万甚至20万美元。' N7 W- {* M, C
& l0 \$ q5 E* v6 e
加密资产的国家效应:萨尔瓦多因比特币政策而成为中美洲金融科技中心,吸引了像Tether这样的大型加密公司入驻。+ c" N* O7 `4 k
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3. 市场热点与反弹情况- k3 d$ A, F) F+ i' q$ E
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. v! R- U- a' P5 B: ]; ]虽然受到大量抛售的质疑,但以太坊价格总体稳定,汇率回升至0.033。$ E3 J% Y: j) Y
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机构普遍认为以太坊本轮高点或达到1万美元。1 P$ E( a4 G C' T, W7 k
+ b0 R/ v: H& HBTC:
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尽管ETF持续外流且贝莱德带头抛售,比特币依然维持强势。4 u% l8 w. V; D4 p2 x1 T4 J
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如果今晚CPI数据利好,突破10万美元可能性极大。
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SOL与XRP:
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$ [4 _! K; Z% A9 iSOL走势强劲,被认为是AI生态的主导者。摩根大通预计SOL与XRP的ETF即将推出,或吸引150亿美元资金入场。
8 d4 j, i0 y' i$ v$ e
|, B" C+ y' Z$ {, rXRP走势超强,多次占据韩所榜首,有市场声音预测其价格达到10美元、市值超越以太坊。3 P1 @0 ^+ g% l7 K# b
# o' R8 k0 m d+ w9 Z# j其他热点项目:
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涉及ETF或政策的项目如$hbar、$algo、$ada等走势同样强劲。! g+ d& Y" |8 O
3 S* O, s! ]5 t; k8 z( j山寨市场近期普遍上涨,市场预计Q1可能迎来牛市爆发。
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; M. g. m5 V% \* M5 E4. AI赛道与新兴项目
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5 e6 a+ }; E# ~# q- c2 UAI领域表现突出,板块总市值达160亿美元,近期涨幅明显。, c# X- W% U- r5 N; X& a
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蓝筹项目:如$ai16z、$virtual和$aixbt等市值迅速攀升,部分实现翻倍增长。8 J1 N# @" I* C
0 T; J1 u, e7 P8 V" j% V1 d新兴项目:正经团队推出的AI项目表现稳健,例如$mates和$sora已获得市场认可。* P- Z9 g F, n/ v0 H# a' K, P
p5 h1 N' M1 W* T" g$ q2 r4 }市场展望2 k) d' |0 t( e y8 \, m& M4 ^' _. W
; _5 L# |7 w& h( u# L随着宏观经济环境和政策明朗,加密市场有望迎来更多利好。山寨牛市或在第一季度爆发,AI、主流币、以及新兴应用赛道将继续成为市场焦点。9 X2 l# ^% x; M; d$ s
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当前离线
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当前离线
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当前离线
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当前离线
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