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[体育菠菜心得方法]
《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘5 q& A1 C# ]. ^
. B% I+ J9 o$ } b( R/ k 平手中水,主队有利
" u* K j5 Z# [' L" U: L, r1 O& p 在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。; B4 f/ L! t: j8 K4 `
09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:
_: g, M0 ~0 v& e- E# e 英超主队
- t Q$ E8 N" d& a 胜:13场 48%
5 L1 Q. h7 U" q% b 平:5场 17%
" w8 |7 l7 u* M* p. X( u8 h/ F 负:9场 35%
& R7 e7 _6 B2 ?- ] 通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。
4 P. h! f$ q5 r% @4 g: N
* v% G6 j9 k. s" K- `& h5 u 一、初盘阶段7 g( X Z- I' w* u
具体到水位如下:% x: R- _+ N6 T d" ~/ X
初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负
' j2 y) B: P. p5 f: H* R) k# E) ] 初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负
7 y/ @# S" |: t3 s5 z$ k 初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负$ h1 H; x. T3 k* L% d' ?
0 }. l# w3 i1 c; ^& D! P+ W, l 分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。
- f& G& i# m1 s: K( U 初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。9 u* F8 h$ K% [. P; q6 b! e
初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。
( d+ n6 M9 v4 \: i7 r1 @/ D5 v8 e 4 m* T* K5 e* B& V6 ]$ K
二、临场阶段
' j# w2 K, n/ r, ~
* R/ R" P4 A, Y. _1 D 具体到变盘和水位如下:2 S4 f, N7 l9 c1 Y) l# D
临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负$ L+ F" V3 k. d
临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负3 e" {# I( x% G7 h# D a& Z
5 V* `7 q' z% S( m% z! e
临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。& j" J6 _+ G: a8 [6 c9 o- i
临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:
0 D3 k/ ^7 b( u& R& M- q H
7 T, q) _" P8 o& ?3 K- Z8 n 朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿) S- `/ m( q% n; B
初盘:0.82平手1.04
0 K5 j3 @: G8 C 终盘:1.01平手/半球0.852 \$ D" w; k. N
3 a' X; |4 h# ^$ P. G) c& P 朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆
! D; L: Q8 i# `2 r' P" w 初盘:0.76平手1.10
* Y6 i( S% I. k; u( t 终盘:0.95平手/半球0.913 a, ?( G: w# Z- ]
: E9 o) Q+ |3 B+ [! C: B. W* x( |
朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技3 O8 E6 x' I8 V, g3 i0 y9 N
初盘:0.82平手1.048 c& ~- ?: I# V$ H, i) m
终盘:0.88平手/半球0.984 }/ v: s+ z+ B. R% f$ i. V! z
2 l7 V8 x; p' L- l6 p! b/ D0 z$ F
伯恩利2-1西汉姆. f0 ^3 W- I- F/ w5 U
初盘:0.88平手0.98
) ~4 |+ ] P) Y9 t 终盘:1.12平/半0.74
* ^1 S$ S- }3 r8 e 我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。
3 w) J( S& u# U% b+ H' n 提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。
& Z8 v- C+ k0 P1 R 提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。3 j1 L# v! Y& X+ L" @; K
1 p: T9 d" ~: h4 j5 e4 o
三、球队表现- i2 U* o% Z5 \1 E) F/ Q
- R `1 {) r9 b* [
结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。3 n+ O, i5 t5 d2 E7 I
, |6 U5 N( P' ? 四、投注要点* d, G# N, Z: F1 Z# c1 h. L
要点1:平手中水、主多不败# Z1 t; i' Z; H% q
要点2:平手降盘、走两头4 u8 J7 Y* Y( S2 G
要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败
* A7 i0 w/ p1 H }; Z" J% K' K" R 要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大' {. t# ?' z$ T8 f2 r* r' h+ @6 Z- k
要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任! j9 x/ D! y: E. y
要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大
Y/ ^7 b/ b" O J: C 要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛 |
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