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[lastpost] => 2799617 比特币价格盘整，市场情绪再次崩溃！能否反弹至 10 万美元？(转） 1769100551 叫我十三
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) ?5 [! F2 N# M0 }- K
加密风投Pantera合伙人Paul Veradettakit在CoinDesk发表2024年六大预测，他认为
" h7 Q; j1 U# `" p- e+ P$ KDeFi热潮将会在比特币上复活，迎来DeFi2.0；而在比特币现货ETF的加持下，传统金融也会更频繁与DeFi互动，3 y d8 b. q9 t3 q- h
衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨链桥」的项目。: v! n" R: j5 m, b" B3 b- ]4 [
一、比特币复兴迎来DeFi2.0
3 N6 `8 K& C4 b& w4 X. l' O2 S) UBTC市占率自年初的38%升至年底的50%，加上铭刻的火热程度，都让BTC再次重回投资者视野。
8 d9 z! F) \9 ^8 `+ ?, iPantera认为BTC明年至少有三个主要催化剂以推动复兴：" t; h9 L1 a8 L. E" K5 r* J
2024年4月第四次减半
! ~. G( X5 `* M机构投资者预计将批准多个比特币现货ETF
# Y2 Z+ G. v0 ?) C( j可编程功能的强化，包括Ordinals协议及L2及扩容方案(如Stacks和Rootstock)
) u y5 ^4 ~& C, V( l% k5 I' ~针对第三点，Pantera预测会有更多以太坊DeFi协议移植到比特币上，迎来DeFi2.0。4 O' b/ h; _* S$ j
二、链上新应用：代币化社交服务 ?0 Q h' S# ~8 L& Y/ D3 y# K* e
friend.tech等社交应用通过与Twitter账户整合，成功为SocialFi领域衍生出一种新的代币经济模型。
( z, U7 M% \ m9 s7 J: TPantera预期，未来在社交领域会有更多实验，代币化将会发挥关键作用，同质化代币(Fungible Token)能成为忠" ~- j9 }7 o" v8 e
诚度积分的新形式，而NFT则更可能成为个人的社交资料及资源。
* X. {; c- S4 c, x/ v三、传统金融、DeFi互动更频繁. W! f) B1 N9 h
除了预测比特币现货ETF的通过能让机构采用率大幅增加外，Pantera认为机构会进一步寻求代币化的RWA及传统: ?! H2 B6 a. p$ @7 ]# m* ?
金融(TradFi)产品。
6 m; Y# u; }8 K5 w4 N如同此前BTC以WBTC映射、跨链至以太坊，TradFi资产也会更频繁地与DeFi互动，进而衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨# P! R- Q- m @- r7 K, t0 @/ a N
链桥」的项目。
+ U2 u. ]* v. b四、模组化区块链和零知识证明的交叉授粉6 R8 G2 T3 Z& c# V
模组化区块链和零知识证明都在过去一年中取得大幅进展，如近期的Celestia主网、Espresso的Arbitrum协作/ ^* U5 T7 l+ m( z* _" K
等。
8 @/ E- W7 M2 u Z; c$ U6 H7 oPantera认为这两种技术的结合在未来会是一个有趣趋势，而在消费者相关的应用中，零知识证明可能会更多应用
% Y* k# r/ ~: T5 P6 v在身份保护、隐私项目中，例如基于ZK的去中心化数字身份。
& R: h" a4 B# u" ` w五、更多计算密集型应用上链，如AI、DePIN" b+ w2 i7 d: I
Pantera指出链上费用过高等扩容问题已获得解决，以太坊L2的Gas费用低于0.02美元，Solana则更低了几个位
/ ^! K0 D" D. |8 C S数，因此能预计未来一年内，需要大量计算资源的计算密集型应用，在链上运行将变得更加经济可行。2 ~" \ ]; B% E0 ?4 J* x5 U1 V
Pantera点名了几个项目：
& }) z" N/ L* Y8 J& K/ r+ nHivemapper：去中心化的Google地图) B3 g& F5 m7 `
Bittensor：去中心化机器学习平台' n+ {( T9 O& h4 r& ^$ T
Modulus Labs：AI生成NFT艺术品% Q. p1 X; j, I4 G
The Graph：链上知识图谱计划
# k' i3 v: g: o2 lRealmsverse：Starknet上的链游! q2 e$ ?% e! C, H; v+ v
六、小型公链需专注特定应用
6 d j; J8 a. r1 j' rPantera最后提到了公链的竞争情况，实际上L1、L2对使用者体验而言并没有太大区别，Solana、Avalanche甚
' v+ L( A; q) e) n至能直接与L2竞争。 w; R: B& R) j3 x- P6 e
也由于性质相同，Ethereum、BNBChain等五大公链就已锁定总TVL的80%。% J; y! N* I% I1 c2 a2 s
Pantera认为，生态较小的公链必须将精力集中在特定的垂直领域(如社交、游戏、DeFi)以保持优势，从而有效地- A* O5 z4 Q* x; T/ R
成为「应用链」。
) O* z- V- G+ C N4 R, ^# G事实上TVL排名前10的L2中，dydx、Loopring、Ronin都已经是专注单一垂直领域的应用链。
, e( I2 |$ C2 J% u5 ?8 I) s0 z5 q1 C# E. T4 j# L
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