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! A. D' r% S- {3 U
加密风投Pantera合伙人Paul Veradettakit在CoinDesk发表2024年六大预测，他认为& S/ T+ I. g8 `/ {" u# l
DeFi热潮将会在比特币上复活，迎来DeFi2.0；而在比特币现货ETF的加持下，传统金融也会更频繁与DeFi互动， n3 C8 o9 M9 ~% e* o
衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨链桥」的项目。$ D0 i; o# C! r" r+ E. N |/ @2 g
一、比特币复兴迎来DeFi2.0! P' ~' X, i+ @2 r# I! d
BTC市占率自年初的38%升至年底的50%，加上铭刻的火热程度，都让BTC再次重回投资者视野。% ~- n/ M- N6 r5 _& B
Pantera认为BTC明年至少有三个主要催化剂以推动复兴：
+ }& g2 p$ f, A1 s$ T2024年4月第四次减半3 p/ ?0 @! }: A( y* _% s% ?3 E4 C" H- Y
机构投资者预计将批准多个比特币现货ETF
$ f: ]/ \+ _ k- }$ {* _可编程功能的强化，包括Ordinals协议及L2及扩容方案(如Stacks和Rootstock)
3 i& x5 {$ `' Q0 L6 q. }针对第三点，Pantera预测会有更多以太坊DeFi协议移植到比特币上，迎来DeFi2.0。
+ V5 r9 ^, n4 H3 u二、链上新应用：代币化社交服务
3 T" ^( I& d) v3 Pfriend.tech等社交应用通过与Twitter账户整合，成功为SocialFi领域衍生出一种新的代币经济模型。1 U; P5 [' s( W0 n$ C, {$ B" P, f
Pantera预期，未来在社交领域会有更多实验，代币化将会发挥关键作用，同质化代币(Fungible Token)能成为忠
9 m- A5 I( o$ U1 `" C+ k1 D诚度积分的新形式，而NFT则更可能成为个人的社交资料及资源。9 m9 H! H- {: z5 P0 g
三、传统金融、DeFi互动更频繁
. g: w* O3 f. @除了预测比特币现货ETF的通过能让机构采用率大幅增加外，Pantera认为机构会进一步寻求代币化的RWA及传统
+ L8 n: ?4 m! J N: q% Z# X金融(TradFi)产品。# H" M. V3 L3 c$ h7 W5 c+ |
如同此前BTC以WBTC映射、跨链至以太坊，TradFi资产也会更频繁地与DeFi互动，进而衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨
1 H9 m `, \ W, v链桥」的项目。
, M+ W; a b" {9 e- m, R; O四、模组化区块链和零知识证明的交叉授粉
( a0 q* A$ J! F模组化区块链和零知识证明都在过去一年中取得大幅进展，如近期的Celestia主网、Espresso的Arbitrum协作
3 O7 [6 D7 A; h9 e, B; V6 q等。- U* M5 v- B/ f, V: X
Pantera认为这两种技术的结合在未来会是一个有趣趋势，而在消费者相关的应用中，零知识证明可能会更多应用6 G+ \' \3 J2 S# b; \4 @
在身份保护、隐私项目中，例如基于ZK的去中心化数字身份。
) P6 P2 b+ y+ w) Z五、更多计算密集型应用上链，如AI、DePIN% m. m% C# m& M
Pantera指出链上费用过高等扩容问题已获得解决，以太坊L2的Gas费用低于0.02美元，Solana则更低了几个位
, P/ g3 Z4 J1 x: R数，因此能预计未来一年内，需要大量计算资源的计算密集型应用，在链上运行将变得更加经济可行。4 _- ?/ ]4 N, R' ^, A
Pantera点名了几个项目：
' D) `* u- h# n1 b( v1 T4 WHivemapper：去中心化的Google地图
9 ^/ P% M( a BBittensor：去中心化机器学习平台1 \/ l# o2 o$ x+ m0 d
Modulus Labs：AI生成NFT艺术品4 }$ _ x& S/ E- H0 f& E
The Graph：链上知识图谱计划2 _4 C8 P4 b. m% S; b) s
Realmsverse：Starknet上的链游
8 s9 @) o) c' J4 ]* r ]5 }六、小型公链需专注特定应用
/ `: ]* c& Y' \3 C8 G9 |Pantera最后提到了公链的竞争情况，实际上L1、L2对使用者体验而言并没有太大区别，Solana、Avalanche甚1 `: r' A% W7 f; L1 T
至能直接与L2竞争。- a- v/ f8 i0 O
也由于性质相同，Ethereum、BNBChain等五大公链就已锁定总TVL的80%。' d. |, {2 A; L; t" o3 W# Z5 {
Pantera认为，生态较小的公链必须将精力集中在特定的垂直领域(如社交、游戏、DeFi)以保持优势，从而有效地6 ^- q9 y7 a: ^. S' c
成为「应用链」。2 v. J q. Q; W# }3 X
事实上TVL排名前10的L2中，dydx、Loopring、Ronin都已经是专注单一垂直领域的应用链。
7 v$ I5 ]* \( y# L5 t: |
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