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连锁因素、基本面因素和技术面因素的组合表明，以太多头将面临更多痛苦。
z; t7 i% H7 q5 e! \- L以太坊的原生令牌Ether(埃塞俄比亚)的价值在2022年下跌了一半以上，同时对比特币(BTC)目前仍停留在2000美元以下出于几个原因.
$ }: Z- g" s& e6 I' D8 P此外，由于另一系列因素，ETH price可能在6月份面临更大的损失，这些因素将在下面讨论。 3 s4 B$ x7 C( y+ r$ N: p( K/ n+ b1 m
以太坊基金集体亏损 2 _1 }4 y: ]# c [# ?- q9 g) m
根据CoinShares的每周市场报告，投资者已在2022年从以太坊投资基金中撤出2.5亿美元出版5月31日。 * {* z2 |, h" A2 z6 i
与其他硬币形成鲜明对比的是大量外流。例如，投资者在2022年向基于比特币的投资基金投入了3.69亿美元。
. }+ x) R; M, F) l与此同时，与以太坊竞争的区块链第一层协议Solana和Cardano分别吸引了1.04亿美元和900万美元。
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9 ], m& h# y+ W编辑切换为居中
! V+ H6 {6 J* Y, {; E% s& h流入/流出加密资金(按资产) : t( s" o/ N' a0 d% |* T
这从以太坊基金中提款是一个迹象，表明最近在特拉USD (UST)和特拉(月神)Terra内的令牌算法稳定币生态系统——降低了对整体分散金融(DeFi)部门的兴趣。
" M$ r) B* y' j# k以太网的乐观前景仍然依赖于对DeFi市场繁荣的预期，因为以太坊的区块链托管了该领域的大部分金融应用。截至6月5日，基于以太坊的应用程序锁定的总价值(TVL)为6871万美元，几乎占TVL总DeFi的65%。 # G) A1 u N0 z3 j: {& D
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编辑切换为居中
* W& T3 z" D7 C5 K6 Q8 U( q6月5日的TVL以太坊 / E; a- ~& l6 V& s+ S7 c) @5 L
但是，TVL仍然反映了以太坊DeFi池的大规模撤退，在5月9日Luna Classic和TerraUSD Classic倒闭之前，该池徘徊在1000亿美元左右。
3 w' j1 ~( ]: \宏观风险由美联储的鹰派政策根据Tagus Capital的合伙人Ilan Solot的说法，加上对DeFi行业的谨慎前景，乙醚似乎将在6月份继续下跌。 - r2 T5 l6 N. r2 r5 c1 \5 F
男性讲述金融时报: ; t% [' d+ N' j" c0 P8 P# p
“如果美联储收紧，世界陷入衰退，人们需要支付每加仑4.5美元的汽油，他们将没有多少钱投资DeFi或花在区块链奥运会上。”
3 ]! R6 L' |1 N呆滞的技术面 7 u* P7 c6 X* S2 s
自5月以来的交易行为也描绘了以太坊的熊市前景。
0 E( [4 l* Y5 K- _8 W2 W具体来说，乙醚一直在水平趋势线支撑和下降趋势线阻力所限定的范围内波动。该形态看起来或多或少像一个“下降三角形”，在下降趋势中形成的熊市延续形态。 6 g9 Y$ O, N# D8 {/ T0 k
根据技术分析的规则，下跌三角形在价格决定性地跌破其支撑趋势线后分解，然后下跌三角形的最大高度。如下图所示，乙醚有可能在6月份经历类似的下跌。 % U% L: l7 O) R+ a5 Z. O% O
" \8 B+ J+ K E4 a+ q6 B
编辑切换为居中
1 g$ ]5 Z) m! I& [$ A; @$ E9 B) p- M# nETH/USD每日价格图采用“下降三角形”设置
, w- X& ^( w" D) k4 x如果ETH的价格跌破三角形的趋势线下限，它可能会在6月份跌至1，350美元，比今天的价格下跌约25%。 : V/ M/ V- N& M3 w/ p
交易所的ETH储备正在增加
" [0 i! w! }; w" J) XCryptoQuant的数据显示，自5月份以来，全球加密交易所的以太网余额总数增加了550，459以太网演出. $ z' c) G1 P! a( a
自Terra崩溃开始以来，这相当于近9.5亿美元的资金流入了交易所的热门钱包。 / g0 I1 U6 A- J, }4 P+ |5 k
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编辑切换为居中 + f$ C+ q$ g! r4 B* m
以太坊外汇储备
' [2 W/ F6 S0 K# w( s: D通常，当交易者想用代币交换其他资产时，他们会向交易所发送代币。因此，如果交易所的ETH储备下降趋势开始逆转，抛售压力可能会增加。 d. H4 e% j- q# Z. W5 \% f
来源：金色财经 |
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