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[虚拟币资讯]
币世界余勋6.2 缩表为弥补去年放水 而放水初期低点其实就在5.19两万七 长线以此为据
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在大部分人认为6月的50加息+缩表、基本在5月的下行中、得到有效释放、
3 @1 w5 C5 M0 [% Y8 g余勋也不例外、 . z6 P3 y. y( R. B
其中最关键的是美联储26号纪要、会灵活对待加息。 : H+ Z# u# ]8 m
是保经济的重要决策！
5 L, |- m6 F" K8 W这其中美股迎来了阶段连涨、大饼也四连阳、
3 ~. E3 J( J9 h& e低点26700-32400、 & }8 ^: x! o$ p+ V
反弹近六千点、以太低点反弹近300点。 ' p [( X, h0 S9 l9 S! e+ I
但仅仅在缩表两个交易日、
O& Q5 U' ~. [% S! }6 E大饼回撤幅度达到三千点、以太近200点。 ( {0 l) _; P. N! f6 k
涨幅就已回撤过半！ 6 `: C& y/ S. d6 L8 H0 g
所以暂时来看，期待的靴子落地效应基本告吹。
! i) M5 z7 N" b- X, y8 b' u不是利空没有得到释放、是市场做多情绪无法调动。 ) }+ Z% F$ j1 T' T8 a9 _, w# _: L
其次、 , }4 f* V9 v. h4 \: O8 n: m z( n
缩表大致会延续至2024年初、
h0 |2 t$ E0 T1 n) G* P每月950亿、直至达到1.5万亿美元、
# H8 D( {. J" R' y" H$ G等于说、这期间会持续在蓄水池中进行抽水。
; F* \# X. @8 q, [. J+ [1 w' b& {美股想大肆上行也是有心无力。
# u0 x; f# E. u: h但回到币圈、
5 N/ L3 l0 v3 Z8 Z7 F. m9 d8 V8 K# E去年牛市因5.19去中心化大跌、 ; p# J3 E+ |7 j/ D
在27000附近。美联储大幅度在放水、迎来第二轮周期牛市。 ) y5 ?8 a4 s( e7 l& N# h! W3 H
而现在弥补这个放水漏洞、而行情其实已经在放水底部附近。
2 ?3 u: I! i3 y3 d `! c6 L个人认为、在经历了加息初期、中期恐慌、 0 H) x8 X2 q6 P( z Q; v1 \
缩表虽是实质利空，但终究是缓慢的。
& o: i$ X0 a6 ~! ?对当前的底部、影响有限。 a( f$ p6 F8 B) B n- s( |9 Q
最不济、缩表启动至结束、行情依然处于放水初期币圈阶段。也就是当前27000-30000附近。 : U* g3 @% N j- u) e
所以27000、即是 9 Q/ g$ O! k1 }4 Z! \! h# U
去年5.19低点、也是今年5.12（加息50基点+缩表恐慌低点）
: I- X0 F; A0 |' R) S同时还是去年放水初期低点、 7 w8 s9 }" H! Y6 F) I" S/ z
也会是今年缩表弥补去年放水周期的低点。 & p* s* I) f: o
由此得出的结论是、
8 v9 Q3 F! h& x; G. d+ p加息+缩表等实质利空、市场年度最大创伤、底部就在27000附近、而以太就在1700附近。
D; K: r; G4 }点位不会出现太大偏离。
1 f- T. H' g3 o7 W: K综合以上、 X7 {1 C q, F$ K
美股逐渐消化了加息、也开启缩表缓慢抽水、
& e5 P; I- N1 _% W& M在整个运行过程中、会由初期的恐慌、缓慢下行，逐渐适应、止跌、然后徐徐补涨。 3 \, U& D$ m8 C% p* g$ j
那操作上、无非缺乏了长线效应、
3 ^" ^8 ^7 e9 w% k( ?抬头大肆上涨、条件匮乏！下行、最大利空由当初的注水点、再到完全调离这些注入资金。低点其实也都在这附近。 1 X& z! a$ S5 M4 J5 [
那行情其实还是围绕三万点、进行弱势整理。
4 g. \4 Q1 n h即难深跌、也难大涨，直至缩表有效、通胀得到控制。 $ Q# L, k: J9 k, b" m0 ]
美股适应上行、市场逐步接受开始回暖。 + H* S, ], J0 ^. N7 W6 V5 v
夜间美股走势平平、虽弱但不跌。
2 m/ s3 B) j t& ^: q9 @6 m7 t+ s大饼无需追空、给一空间点位、
- J/ H2 H$ `- V6 X5 r* y逢28000附近、以太1720附近可做短线接多点。
8 M$ T& j4 G; j% h高空需至31700-32000间布局、
: D( ~$ c# M" c$ t反之、空间不够、进场始终趋于震荡区中轨、 7 j2 _% b7 Q8 V1 _
得不偿失。
0 Y0 n* I1 j3 f N3 Z0 @: a" _0 v来源：金色财经 |
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