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本帖最后由 陆安梦 于 2017-12-20 14:29 编辑
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* Y% w0 d4 ^% e: o% i5 k' f F其实原文标题不是这样的4 D; K# W2 E( j
, X3 n% C5 H: @* X这是我看完的心得所下的 说真的很实用 因昨天我玩了40分钟的捕鱼机深深有感!!!( E7 Z: g1 t; s/ O1 N. [
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有一天，一个专业的赌徒遇到了上帝...# }8 [& ], ^$ R% u" A
他希望能和上帝来场赌局。
# ~7 e4 a7 c L( h
, v0 n' y: @; D/ t O1 I0 O 「我有无限多的金钱。」上帝说着。
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「无论多久我都能和您赌下去，您可以带走所有您赢到的金钱。」: t, E5 o( h. ~2 F+ G" F
; J: b+ x9 C6 O- \「我只有一个要求，我们赌掷铜板，由您选择正反面。」 「选对了便可以从我这拿走一枚金币，反之我要拿走您一枚金币。」
3 R: u% t: Q4 D0 n6 s/ C「如同人生一样，您的人生，您自己选择。」. c4 K# w. `- e! P \
/ S" y8 s/ r0 Q& W& c* v' c$ f 上帝笑着说完，便把铜板交给赌徒。, c5 w6 Q* }% `6 e
4 c1 I5 B' Z1 ]' v
接过铜板，赌徒凭着过往的经验，便立即察觉 铜板反面的重量比正面稍重，& i& H+ B% l# q8 ]: X9 _0 _
因此铜板较容易出现正面。. Z% \9 G/ e" F+ l: V
长期而言，正面出现的次数会高于反面，较有长期优势。
( j( ?7 V( w" _8 H) s. x. e因此，赌徒二话不说，掏出身上20枚金币，心中暗自窃喜。$ p+ \: f$ L7 E# P5 L
心想赢定了。* E: o3 A& [7 Z. e+ `5 R+ E, `
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没想到开始不到半刻钟，$ A+ u# W" R" F% Z) a% f' }) h
赌徒已经把20枚金币便已经输个精光。 「应该只是运气不好吧！」- R! q9 k" v+ l) F1 A
" f5 `" K' b; a, b; l- x赌徒不甘心，又带了100枚金币来比试，
1 j) I/ k4 h3 ^$ G但过了一整天后却仍输个精光。
4 |) [$ Z4 d- |5 a3 w. _ : \# |2 ]- _! r1 q
赌徒百思不得其解，他明明已经占尽优势，为何还会失败?
6 Y: s" B- ?# I0 u! J) Z5 d9 S9 E( U他恳请上帝告诉他原因。 J3 g! ]* x: z4 p
上帝回答道：* P: h, y# r' w5 J$ p. o1 Q
「我会赢，只是因为我有 无限的资本。」* V/ I! D; M, ^ P3 A {
「因此，如果时间够长，输光所有的钱会先发生在您身上。」
/ W8 w7 m+ N: K8 u( J8 x「而不是先发生在我身上。」1 a; t6 i0 f/ o% g
" G% r5 P4 _4 D1 W 赌徒恍然大悟，! \, Y+ T) r3 J4 {
原来他穷极一生 追求技巧，寻找赌局中的些微优势，
% T7 m8 `3 _- b# R8 B* p: s竟然没有准备 充足的资金来得重要！
$ n: a! V4 C! Q: |「因此，如果您身上带的是一万枚金币，那赢的想必就会是您了。」
; }0 n/ F$ {% \& ~+ R上帝说完便不见踪影。
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一旦赌局无法再继续下去，拥有再大的优势也没有意义 一枚较容易出现正面的铜板，1 }1 ? o0 C& p
若掷铜板1000次，最后结果可能是正面出现550次，反面出现450次，7 U) O3 G+ ^. J+ {
1000次下来，赌徒可以赚到100枚金币，0 A/ F3 R0 U5 V; A" r8 S" X
对赌徒十分有利。
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但要是450次的反面，在一开始就 连续的出现，
9 ~4 U" d5 A' _. Y! M在还没掷到1000次之前，! M4 }- K; o8 }* e2 j- [
仅有100枚金币的赌徒便会先破产。6 V1 `1 [4 X0 h" O3 X0 _% _
, T+ J+ F, R) B; e; b 赌徒拥有运气与勇气，但却没有充足的资本实现获利。, P3 D, _' }1 F' |" L) M" P
" T& J3 }' r# F, F 事实上，当资本不足时，即使有任何长期优势都难以发挥。
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市场就像是个金钱无限的上帝，投资就如同和上帝赌掷铜板，
$ u( k* G! l/ y" P5 W# N4 E2 H! \" c# t$ D% a
永远必须准备足够的资本，才有可能真正实现长期的获利喔！
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