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本帖最后由 陆安梦 于 2017-12-20 14:29 编辑
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1 J# Q' l: h8 Q: }! j其实原文标题不是这样的( n# C) l b% r1 t, P* y. U4 q
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这是我看完的心得所下的 说真的很实用 因昨天我玩了40分钟的捕鱼机深深有感!!!6 r* S7 `3 U' {# U( k
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有一天，一个专业的赌徒遇到了上帝...
x4 D2 g) c$ g7 [8 O7 G他希望能和上帝来场赌局。
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「我有无限多的金钱。」上帝说着。" A8 a( ]6 T/ Q6 T4 P
1 N& {& H* h0 `, _- R 「无论多久我都能和您赌下去，您可以带走所有您赢到的金钱。」0 K; T1 Y" W, L/ l) Q
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「我只有一个要求，我们赌掷铜板，由您选择正反面。」 「选对了便可以从我这拿走一枚金币，反之我要拿走您一枚金币。」 $ ~: w ^- i9 \0 T0 O6 i+ W6 _
「如同人生一样，您的人生，您自己选择。」) z! c* p$ r, s1 c0 d: L
( o3 N% K# L6 u; B ^ 上帝笑着说完，便把铜板交给赌徒。
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: N1 t, u& o/ H- n1 |% _5 J接过铜板，赌徒凭着过往的经验，便立即察觉 铜板反面的重量比正面稍重，
3 r( [& n C9 ~2 H+ x3 {因此铜板较容易出现正面。) ^# p- Q8 N, h* X' v1 J
长期而言，正面出现的次数会高于反面，较有长期优势。 ]1 g9 Q% m* y6 `
因此，赌徒二话不说，掏出身上20枚金币，心中暗自窃喜。 w4 q" ^5 X+ D! N# m
心想赢定了。
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没想到开始不到半刻钟，; h1 Y2 ]9 |$ |9 |0 S
赌徒已经把20枚金币便已经输个精光。 「应该只是运气不好吧！」1 |4 {* n& i9 l8 }
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赌徒不甘心，又带了100枚金币来比试，
' j8 w! ~1 ^! F( M( f但过了一整天后却仍输个精光。
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赌徒百思不得其解，他明明已经占尽优势，为何还会失败?# H0 \. F0 w6 ^0 D! X2 F& g
他恳请上帝告诉他原因。
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上帝回答道：
; @& A9 r; X% b7 K8 z「我会赢，只是因为我有 无限的资本。」$ A- K4 k/ S; A4 u6 f, o, _/ o
「因此，如果时间够长，输光所有的钱会先发生在您身上。」6 e4 n- d5 D2 Y1 a, I6 O
「而不是先发生在我身上。」
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8 o4 q0 j6 Y! ], m9 l6 Q- z 赌徒恍然大悟，
0 c4 f, v0 ~; C, v* \原来他穷极一生 追求技巧，寻找赌局中的些微优势，# {, e% h9 W3 X
竟然没有准备 充足的资金来得重要！
* @1 z/ q9 a7 W, L7 E$ a「因此，如果您身上带的是一万枚金币，那赢的想必就会是您了。」
' M0 u+ {) E( I; h# n/ f上帝说完便不见踪影。 7 o' b9 y' o) _
一旦赌局无法再继续下去，拥有再大的优势也没有意义 一枚较容易出现正面的铜板，
5 ]9 `4 t2 I. D# f0 l; K$ }/ x若掷铜板1000次，最后结果可能是正面出现550次，反面出现450次，
; p& t7 k/ J* w1 a1000次下来，赌徒可以赚到100枚金币，/ V; h+ j& e8 ~0 D; V, {1 u+ _
对赌徒十分有利。
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" |& S. C+ E$ M1 l1 s但要是450次的反面，在一开始就 连续的出现，, }6 w, R! U6 c+ o. Z
在还没掷到1000次之前，$ g( h3 n/ J2 \* {% f- ^8 b
仅有100枚金币的赌徒便会先破产。$ p. {- _: A. l9 m: d7 f: a
" a0 u9 {8 v( U+ \- `$ { 赌徒拥有运气与勇气，但却没有充足的资本实现获利。; T0 u- h4 T2 M J( t8 W. a
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事实上，当资本不足时，即使有任何长期优势都难以发挥。
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市场就像是个金钱无限的上帝，投资就如同和上帝赌掷铜板，
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永远必须准备足够的资本，才有可能真正实现长期的获利喔！
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