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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑7 _2 `3 b. A Q
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% S; d: m* F- n! J凯利指数的计算方法: ( O1 m2 a L3 d; F& D k
' T. I( m; A7 e# J7 s
7 k; x) ~) \; |0 S5 n/ F0 c8 ?! M! hG3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔,B:平赔,F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率,B'欧平均平率,F'欧平均负率)7 n) ]8 M% ~/ E+ S
什么?对于一家特定的公司,它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'!你选择的公司样本不同,G值就不同,样本大小不同,G值也不同(一般的欧均值都取99家公司,从统计学的意义上来讲,还称不上样本!)这个G带有随意性,大个0.05小个0.08之类的,也只能算做误差,现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大?我大你个0.05怎么了?我小你个0.08又有什么干系? H% P+ \' B9 l U8 T. [( q1 L X. C, E% v$ x
# I' s8 P* a0 p0 X7 v6 s4 A9 p& t" ]0 @) w! L( u* H% h% {3 t3 r! r. \6 E) [' ]
既然涉及到平均胜率,那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的:平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n,S1'是第一家公司的主胜率,S2'是第二家公司的主胜率,以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率(返还率)又是这样求的:r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F),什么??又做梦了!!返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的,这样也行??AC米兰踢亚特兰大,哨响了,投注比固定了,但踢出3,这场返还率可能是150%,踢出1可能是20%,踢出0,可能是5%,结果不同,返还率也不同啊!这里也可以看到,博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛,因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛,但强队踢假球的成本更高,它想操控也操控不了,最好的选择就是烧烧香:天哪,爆个冷吧! ( T; d- n% H9 Y
7 e6 Z/ _5 C5 S: K8 T8 s
" Y; H g4 W6 h" C4 N做下算术了: 2 i( y$ \ W: ~: {8 \" `! \6 J T6 }/ H* k' ]3 F
; ~' L. y! k5 F, M& W+ d. m' `# h( {8 M& ~
(1)SSP: 2.22 3.15 3.01 : `4 u/ N9 a2 y W3 e8 }9 n5 B( ]8 r4 ?: E, v4 t7 B
( [; v. V) n! A* {. i3 N Q A1 L(2)立博: 2.10 3.25 3.00
- L8 j, ]4 H* Z4 W2 z6 O& h8 `. Y* A# V8 G+ g0 y* o: w) y, k" ]
(3)威廉: 2.20 3.10 2.87 : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [ t
3 v5 |( g4 P& _ X! ]: K) X/ a' [% F; H8 w( C2 Y
(4)易胜博:2.25 3.10 2.95
- t. G0 B6 M1 ]% W, \6 [- U+ {+ l. `) m% ~. _
7 N( k% M- n+ B' V我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值
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9 k% [9 S0 b2 n( }) _) gS1=2.22 B1=3.15 F1=3.01
`# y4 M; `) m! _- S
0 H/ H: o' n% d0 i7 ^4 ~, K# bS2=2.10 B2=3.25 F2=3.00 3 H. X% O0 S1 Q+ Y' W: J4 b
% ^# T/ X4 W2 j% ] s' i9 A! i7 A* |+ H. @2 `
S3=2.20 B3=3.10 F3=2.87 9 A |) D9 O* c
9 A' e& q. H7 B1 c9 S5 j
. I7 c* t q s' _* g0 X, YS4=2.25 B14=3.10 F4=2.95 ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y G+ \
' H( _/ m/ z! Y {, j8 w( d5 ` _0 H- N/ h7 V4 v
G [2 M4 m& c& e# z- V8 y1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01 => r1=0.91
; D+ G6 ?1 h* D* o) @; @* P1 g, j# L0 q. c1 P9 Y( Q7 a( ~
1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00 => r2=0.90 # t0 ?( P e* X% l; C q/ v/ z& ?6 N% W
* W; G* M! F9 ?; o* m
1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87 => r3=0.89 % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q8 K+ |, f/ R# c E
) X2 {+ B9 N6 ?' G. P4 v$ P1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95 => r4=0.90
$ N6 _4 B& f( ]; i6 @% q! o: G+ x9 Y- y- K6 r9 g' s0 y; G( S) z+ u% e, V$ @
S1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41 : W# q# m$ g# T
+ F) T7 _1 v% X; P) K; l0 ?. V2 o: u# T, ^* @6 [
类似的计算后,于是: # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M j
% f; t. y. e( o1 J8 C9 c- u# Z. l/ b
S1'=41 B1'=29 F1'=30; + [' @5 W6 H* r' ]. s/ q: u. Y9 Z
. ?2 M$ W. C5 m. q2 m2 C1 u
S2'=43 B2'=28 F2'=30 3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s' U) z5 e2 q, [( S: o
; m' V% T, u, P% O B' S1 f2 v' ^( z4 g, l% S2 ~0 d
S3'=40 B3'=29 F3'=31 : h$ g% R) {8 G* _$ n. u, ?9 Z& e
6 z5 K/ n5 u, C9 L, h+ }+ O/ i% a" i/ R! P* i! w/ O( |; e5 r: r
S4'=40 B4'=29 F4'=31 9 M5 c$ _. R1 j6 O8 D
: B6 y" Y' M2 }4 T/ O0 g4 ~
) s# H% P* y9 }(注意:3,4两家公司,赔率不同,但它们的胜,平,负率相同了) 8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o5 B. z9 I5 y5 F6 w D; m' J7 o- B( Z
* R9 Y/ Q" p9 \
) m/ b" m% ]6 ]3 w4 {3 j好:S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41 D, i- J/ Q+ R2 T% Q/ o' x, U
) q( ], k9 L T& t( m9 n x1 U; h# T2 |9 Q2 L8 h
B'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75 f3 e5 k: q) q# u& _' D- ^: Z
5 Q/ F3 |( M1 W: d; BF'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5
2 E, i, \3 ~+ d4 G0 i9 p4 b
( J" d" [/ p$ Z) g. V( I于是: / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P E8 u9 j! |0 ?$ m) N, l$ r% y5 @. B- r
9 E ]' p: I. D7 h. {% ` I' t& R ^4 E/ ?
G31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02 ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M
1 P/ I) u6 X3 C& Q9 L+ D$ n) P# X# M# K8 K; ?0 O7 N
G11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56
" F1 B, x1 T' i0 O$ J
/ g' ? h) J5 FG01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8 2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ]% q& M _; X2 o1 C: |* Z6 L
% Y& |, i o6 b5 X. z, p: Z: S
当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得,当然,事实上你不用去求(每场比赛这样求,不累死也气死了),赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。 好,到这里你应该可以知道了,凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了,因为除了赔率是真的,其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的(并非是攻击凯利指数,这个,前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了)。 + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \
2 @( h& L# S7 @3 \, Y9 Z6 C* |* h W0 f7 S7 s3 A2 @. G$ i! h/ I- ^* g! }! L
通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系,在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系,在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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