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[体育菠菜心得方法] 再论赔率统计 --新手胡说八道
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1#
以威廉为标准，只统计 英超，西甲，意甲
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只跟踪一个联赛
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$ W0 R9 l9 l7 o! H1 Y8 ~全塞季  分别买 主胜，  平，   负赔
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三条线  ，三年统计结果  全部亏水钱，积少成多也不少啊 ，最后收益差别不大，7 H+ y- v9 y& c! }9 o  \
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偶尔年份  平或 负赔会高一点。
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方法：  全程跟踪一个联赛，一个塞季， 只买一边， 主胜 或负赔（平局出现相对概率要少）
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然后通过基本面或盘赔特征，排除一部分球赛， 最后你买的那边胜率就会增高， 只需要增高一点，- \9 R- f. Z0 r
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就可以做到 一边持平或赚水钱，  然后就是不断累积经验，多排除一些球赛，多赚一点水钱  S- Q. M" |7 C' q9 `
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当经验积累到一定程度， 足球就成了一种长期投资 项目
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' Q* O) s3 e" N% D$ i亚盘没有统计，想当然，  低水胜出概率高点，  让盘方胜出概率高点，只有两个方向容易判断，
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而且亚盘返还率要高一点， 选低水+让球方，一个联赛一个赛季全程跟踪，开始肯定输水钱，. }. _: B2 T! z0 g

7 _' T7 N8 E- M! T& `- G8 O但是只要累计经验去排除一些明显打不出来的球赛就可以了，就可以把水钱赚回来。) p( g) G3 {# i0 o; x5 p
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& x( Z7 q8 N- E( R3 l: E  r( C& {理论依据： 只买一边 ，一定不会让你亏多少，因为大联赛大庄都是平衡的，一个联赛一个赛季一定平衡。/ ]1 J; y* }7 u1 H+ o) {: F
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排除比选择要容易积累经验， 而且学习排除法 那些不可能出现  ，比那些可能出现 要容易判断

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2#
以上的方法 是不可能赚多少钱的，
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但是每个赛季 5-10%， 是可以做到的，; a# b) s# z, s0 C

2 I: z3 b1 m/ r5 d. P$ z这比买国债存银行合算。. }1 I- r9 o8 a4 s8 }0 W7 }
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在DC赚大钱的人，都是用高风险去博高收益，风险大利润才高，
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几次发现十几倍的负赔，就是不敢去，买了平，这就是人性。
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3 F7 q+ G3 S3 X1 r2 ?常胜的人收益一定不会高到那里去。; u& {( Z2 h$ _+ n% ]
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放弃一夜暴富，放弃神奇的方法， 放弃高的胜率，: K. m% ~5 {. K' ]7 a
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就是回避了大的亏损，: c8 i  I6 x  W' |) c( V& O$ T. E; r
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大亏，小亏，小赢，大赢，  DC就这四种结果，$ t4 ?6 E5 q5 j3 z
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回避了大亏，用经验避免小亏，就只剩下 赢了。

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顶起再慢慢看

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