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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑
6 q) a, B0 Q- P* B6 J* f/ a/ y4 p# R- a1 ^9 v! c
8 s7 d ?$ l% x* A1 u凯利指数的计算方法： ( O1 m2 a L3 d; F& D k
f$ L$ V5 s& g v. f- s# @
6 X( i- u: ~4 RG3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔，B:平赔，F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率，B'欧平均平率，F'欧平均负率)# X* ~1 f+ n% t6 D+ c# W
什么？对于一家特定的公司，它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'！你选择的公司样本不同，G值就不同，样本大小不同，G值也不同（一般的欧均值都取99家公司，从统计学的意义上来讲，还称不上样本！）这个G带有随意性，大个0.05小个0.08之类的，也只能算做误差，现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大？我大你个0.05怎么了？我小你个0.08又有什么干系? H% P+ \' B9 l U8 T. [8 [2 \& P5 g, I9 H1 l
3 c5 }( ^5 @0 h8 Y& I# J3 B& t" ]0 @) w! L( u* H% h
, L" W$ w$ \8 S. f6 z既然涉及到平均胜率，那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的：平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n，S1'是第一家公司的主胜率，S2'是第二家公司的主胜率，以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率（返还率）又是这样求的：r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F)，什么？？又做梦了！！返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的，这样也行？？AC米兰踢亚特兰大，哨响了，投注比固定了，但踢出3，这场返还率可能是150%，踢出1可能是20%，踢出0，可能是5%，结果不同，返还率也不同啊！这里也可以看到，博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛，因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛，但强队踢假球的成本更高，它想操控也操控不了，最好的选择就是烧烧香：天哪，爆个冷吧！ " u m/ o, d: W8 ~ q
7 e6 Z/ _5 C5 S: K8 T8 s
4 |1 W% ~. f7 F; H0 e做下算术了： 2 i( y$ \ W: ~: {8 \" `
, \8 W2 K/ F% \& j1 x& R; ~' L. y! k5 F, M& W+ d
; ~+ v! o/ h$ B* a5 A(1)SSP： 2.22 3.15 3.01 : `4 u/ N9 a2 y W3 e8 }9 n# G# X2 n# E0 n5 m% C& B/ c
, x3 j$ p' q% Q n(2)立博： 2.10 3.25 3.00
+ [5 i. m" e" u
1 E4 w% `4 r$ ?( ^% Z# ]+ L6 ](3)威廉： 2.20 3.10 2.87 : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [ t
& I* L' J+ W# R9 N1 n& M; ^ E' S: I
(4)易胜博：2.25 3.10 2.95 * P) L, z, K0 V2 Y9 L- `% Z
- U+ {+ l. `) m% ~. _5 K: L1 m' n& Q2 q$ l- u
我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值
3 c5 h5 X# n1 V9 _5 F8 F, p$ }' ]( i% c E- p8 t3 v& u% T4 c* @
S1=2.22 B1=3.15 F1=3.01
* c* {4 }0 [. h, ^
7 q" p: Y4 I( _* s' W! a! LS2=2.10 B2=3.25 F2=3.00
9 u9 @/ S3 G2 k% ^# T/ X4 W2 j% ] s6 ^9 w' q, I9 t6 M0 e
S3=2.20 B3=3.10 F3=2.87
8 O! @5 f1 T- C, l& e+ i: W- Q' g9 A' e& q. H7 B1 c9 S5 j- }4 H! ~' K4 A: }
S4=2.25 B14=3.10 F4=2.95 ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y G+ \! P, N2 ~( E/ G
8 w( d5 ` _0 H- N/ h7 V4 v
5 M7 C! v) b9 P0 s* C1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01 => r1=0.91 " r5 N1 H' i5 [1 w* c3 F7 C
0 s' u% |1 p, @& h% \1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00 => r2=0.90 # t0 ?( P e* X% l
0 r9 }2 Y$ o" Z: c. u
( s( C4 @' A7 ~/ b, V" p1 y6 N1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87 => r3=0.89 % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q
4 m2 C: L, K5 M: @: M- |$ T
) \9 F( ]# |6 ^! X( k1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95 => r4=0.90
, d* L5 G% U$ ? F: G+ x9 Y- y- K6 r5 r7 I9 e# o4 `5 I# o
S1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41 : W# q# m$ g# T# S) n3 D* j: j! j/ }
3 L( ^+ {' d; S- ?! F; t类似的计算后，于是： # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M j4 L) U: A2 Y; s7 i I% A
6 V) {! Q$ T. c+ H3 HS1'=41 B1'=29 F1'=30;
5 m+ \$ i7 q! C9 v1 c$ s" F( c
% G# j* u0 J5 H# ?: JS2'=43 B2'=28 F2'=30 3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s
6 t9 _/ T7 M; p! Z% ^+ K; m' V% T, u, P% O7 H. j1 |0 {" M, J# u2 ?" E9 x
S3'=40 B3'=29 F3'=31
: y& ^# v1 b) L6 z5 K/ n5 u, C9 L, h+ }+ O/ i% a6 k! m# a$ E7 \2 l& h
S4'=40 B4'=29 F4'=31 / J- v. v$ x) e- ]& v1 A6 D6 B' m
: B6 y" Y' M2 }4 T/ O0 g4 ~
{% N8 ~) d1 j @! C(注意：3,4两家公司，赔率不同，但它们的胜，平，负率相同了) 8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o
h7 b! Q# g1 n- i) P9 V& n* R9 Y/ Q" p9 \
j( R5 c9 U9 j4 C1 \好：S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41 6 c& c1 z5 L" d* X
) q( ], k9 L T& t
! B n0 Q- {! b/ M5 Z! z" d \B'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75 , Q" J/ q* R! T' X8 h4 J
& M3 i: M1 u0 T. Y* @ T
F'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5 . p* F" W- m; K" L
( g2 t+ a3 R: K0 |" u. n; O. m# k于是： / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P E8 u9 j! |0 ?
. D8 z* r+ x& s& J9 E ]' p: I. D7 h. {( l1 g) {: m1 i5 I# ?/ O+ T3 y
G31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02 ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M% Q8 q! P+ E" P) R% Y
+ D$ n) P# X# M
7 y5 y Y. o$ Q6 `9 X( @7 uG11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56
' |- k* U! a& [% o/ M
/ v# T2 R3 i) o* KG01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8 2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ]( }* c6 G" t7 t4 }
# x E* r1 _0 v, C
当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得，当然，事实上你不用去求（每场比赛这样求，不累死也气死了），赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。 好，到这里你应该可以知道了，凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了，因为除了赔率是真的，其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的（并非是攻击凯利指数，这个，前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了）。 + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \
, t; G4 V" }, ?1 |# e0 A6 C* |* h W0 f7 S7 s3 A2 @. G$ i1 B! V8 l5 l# }- }
通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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