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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑$ X% @& a# | e
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凯利指数的计算方法： ( O1 m2 a L3 d; F& D k
0 @4 {! R1 ^6 n, c; r; O$ d# G0 z, _- X8 w/ s; n% X- c
G3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔，B:平赔，F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率，B'欧平均平率，F'欧平均负率)
+ C. Z3 _5 v1 U) Q什么？对于一家特定的公司，它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'！你选择的公司样本不同，G值就不同，样本大小不同，G值也不同（一般的欧均值都取99家公司，从统计学的意义上来讲，还称不上样本！）这个G带有随意性，大个0.05小个0.08之类的，也只能算做误差，现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大？我大你个0.05怎么了？我小你个0.08又有什么干系? H% P+ \' B9 l U8 T. [
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既然涉及到平均胜率，那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的：平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n，S1'是第一家公司的主胜率，S2'是第二家公司的主胜率，以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率（返还率）又是这样求的：r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F)，什么？？又做梦了！！返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的，这样也行？？AC米兰踢亚特兰大，哨响了，投注比固定了，但踢出3，这场返还率可能是150%，踢出1可能是20%，踢出0，可能是5%，结果不同，返还率也不同啊！这里也可以看到，博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛，因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛，但强队踢假球的成本更高，它想操控也操控不了，最好的选择就是烧烧香：天哪，爆个冷吧！ " K$ p7 o$ ^& p9 d# x
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做下算术了： 2 i( y$ \ W: ~: {8 \" `
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" b: f: c% E |(1)SSP： 2.22 3.15 3.01 : `4 u/ N9 a2 y W3 e8 }9 n
- n+ z0 G0 {( C9 S
0 ?$ [: l+ Z- r/ B, [4 `( v(2)立博： 2.10 3.25 3.00
; [8 v a b3 Q% Z: l& z
* w# a8 b1 |" @9 u+ ]8 E(3)威廉： 2.20 3.10 2.87 : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [ t X) b3 \$ A2 O1 k* _: v
0 F% i; z$ [ D* ](4)易胜博：2.25 3.10 2.95 . T, w9 R- ?+ F( d2 \" w/ Q% ~! e: Q ^
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我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值
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S1=2.22 B1=3.15 F1=3.01 4 ~+ ], _- T& I& y9 _, o
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S2=2.10 B2=3.25 F2=3.00 3 z5 t, @! [" D/ F
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S3=2.20 B3=3.10 F3=2.87 5 I; U3 l0 L- D; {9 t$ x+ A
9 A' e& q. H7 B1 c9 S5 j
' I" X" M6 P* q0 tS4=2.25 B14=3.10 F4=2.95 ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y G+ \
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1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01 => r1=0.91 4 D* _9 }/ n( a5 m) v. r
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1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00 => r2=0.90 # t0 ?( P e* X% l. z/ k. S0 j" }# y. ]5 w& L- e
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1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87 => r3=0.89 % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q$ w, K8 w, Y( o% W: r( s8 [! f' Z
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1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95 => r4=0.90
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3 t( { z: x F, e9 F4 K- U; t& O: lS1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41 : W# q# m$ g# T3 B6 n# Y% J$ O- x" H: `; F
+ u* ?: M2 i9 p+ x
类似的计算后，于是： # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M j
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9 l, U" n, i6 C) L) m$ |3 N0 n( VS1'=41 B1'=29 F1'=30; $ g, R# Z: i8 W
4 J% [) G) ~ i( i$ C/ G3 h' ]: r) kS2'=43 B2'=28 F2'=30 3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s
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% F, g8 {& C" x: a$ f9 dS3'=40 B3'=29 F3'=31
5 Y- ^, ^$ W) H/ r% y% a3 B6 z5 K/ n5 u, C9 L, h+ }+ O/ i% a
G3 ?+ P% G9 ~$ d% bS4'=40 B4'=29 F4'=31 $ I1 ` d' n4 x; I5 \ k
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! }7 `$ l) N: v$ D9 v; M(注意：3,4两家公司，赔率不同，但它们的胜，平，负率相同了) 8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o
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. A% ?, ]+ \* A t4 r$ j+ `好：S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41 + {- \/ W8 B" y
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B'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75
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F'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5
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! ]/ {1 p2 [ g1 e+ f于是： / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P E8 u9 j! |0 ?. G: _& \3 {2 T/ _& i
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G31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02 ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M
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G11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56
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. O+ Q9 N& w. }. |& \$ KG01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8 2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ]' J8 b: v) H1 g. ?; G* x. W& X) P
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当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得，当然，事实上你不用去求（每场比赛这样求，不累死也气死了），赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。 好，到这里你应该可以知道了，凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了，因为除了赔率是真的，其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的（并非是攻击凯利指数，这个，前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了）。 + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \- K& r: J! R; @( \: D- @& q( L% T+ Z" H
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通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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