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[真人] 百家樂投注研究二
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第二節 百家樂收益率的研究

賭戲分析的根本的是研究賭戲的賭博策略和相應的收益率。從表面看來百家樂似乎沒有和二十一點類似的策略,但它和二十一點一樣,用了多副牌,一局牌要玩很多輪,可以預料,百家樂也應該存在著一個浮動的收益率。

從前一節對百家樂基本資料的計算可以看出,這時計算出的是所有的牌都還在牌盒里,一張牌也還沒有發出時的收益率。

在荷官剛洗完牌,游戲尚未開始進行之前的初始狀態,在一副牌中,每種牌平均都有4張;隨著游戲的進行,這種狀態被打破,會出現各種各樣的偏離初始狀態的情形。和研究二十一點採用的方法一樣,我們首先研究比較特殊的情形,即平均到一副牌時,單獨一種牌數量的變化對賭客收益率的影響,以便認識這種牌在百家樂中的作用,從而得到對所有牌作用的認識。 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

假設某種牌的數量不是4張,而是比其他的牌多出了X張,爲4+0.5X張,那麼其余的12種牌必須少掉0.5X張才能保持數量上的平衡,爲了研究方便,我們認爲這12種牌的機會都一樣,他們都以相同的概率出現。這樣,在一副牌中多出X張的牌出現的概率爲:

(4+0.5X )/52=1/13×(1+X/8)

其余的牌出現的概率爲: ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

(4-0.5X/12)/52=1/13×(1-X/96)

在8副牌的情況下,X的可能取值爲-8爲X爲56。

和前一節的過程類似,我們可以得到對應于每一個X的取值下的收益率,在此我們省略推算過程,直接給出每種牌從少8張到多出25張的情況下,百家樂的收益率。

一 莊 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>


; T% e$ w# J& G5 t賭客的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系 X= 少牌或多牌的種類
1 M2 I- a' l3 U) l8 ?10A23456789
3 I- B  W/ W) b- e+ W-8-1.003-0.905-0.866-0.921-0.743-1.263-1.528-1.405-1.230-1.159+ F6 Y* s0 c8 g& E
-7-1.008-0.925-0.894-0.928-0.773-1.250-1.462-1.354-1.211-1.1465 ~9 Q7 W9 e; W  M5 c
-6-1.013-0.945-0.920-0.939-0.806-1.234-1.398-1.306-1.192-1.133
% F6 C2 l" d8 o2 @-5-1.020-0.966-0.946-0.953-0.842-1.213-1.336-1.261-1.171-1.120
( t  c9 r2 Z0 ]' c-4-1.027-0.985-0.971-0.970-0.881-1.189-1.277-1.218-1.151-1.108
) Y6 n4 o# N4 M: e! l" I-3-1.035-1.005-0.995-0.989-0.923-1.162-1.220-1.177-1.129-1.096
! _; {; {! P7 F" [-2-1.044-1.025-1.018-1.012-0.968-1.132-1.166-1.138-1.108-1.085
) `. W" g+ _8 P! A3 L6 ^-1-1.054-1.045-1.041-1.037-1.015-1.099-1.114-1.100-1.086-1.074
" t/ T. h: ^* J) t* P0 `0-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064
0 o+ |0 c0 [9 Y: D: a5 f9 T- R- k+ q1-1.075-1.083-1.087-1.094-1.115-1.027-1.016-1.029-1.042-1.054/ {$ O5 C% I3 u" N0 D/ V
2-1.087-1.102-1.109-1.125-1.169-0.987-0.970-0.994-1.019-1.045
3 p; ^0 j  N6 c. s3-1.099-1.121-1.132-1.159-1.224-0.946-0.927-0.960-0.997-1.0366 p6 ^1 z3 `3 j
4-1.113-1.140-1.155-1.195-1.281-0.903-0.885-0.927-0.975-1.028
6 v! H( D$ m' \5-1.126-1.158-1.179-1.232-1.339-0.859-0.845-0.894-0.953-1.0203 q' h$ q$ l+ q$ n$ u3 H
6-1.141-1.176-1.203-1.271-1.398-0.814-0.807-0.862-0.930-1.013% V. m7 N6 s9 @- o2 I+ N
7-1.156-1.194-1.228-1.312-1.458-0.767-0.771-0.829-0.909-1.0073 ~& T. i& y0 U# q
8-1.172-1.212-1.254-1.353-1.519-0.720-0.736-0.796-0.887-1.001( F5 m/ b9 y! f# @& ~- J
9-1.188-1.230-1.281-1.396-1.580-0.672-0.703-0.763-0.866-0.996
0 H7 ^# u1 Z$ `0 P/ k% x4 U4 K10-1.204-1.247-1.309-1.440-1.642-0.624-0.672-0.729-0.845-0.992! v9 ]" W, x0 W( [0 l- ^
11-1.221-1.264-1.339-1.484-1.704-0.575-0.642-0.695-0.824-0.988# v; r5 B0 f+ H
12-1.239-1.281-1.370-1.530-1.766-0.526-0.614-0.661-0.804-0.985- i& K; D" Q/ C. r! }
13-1.257-1.298-1.403-1.576-1.828-0.477-0.587-0.626-0.784-0.982
% M0 \" q$ H! [1 q  J' j3 [3 {14-1.275-1.314-1.437-1.622-1.890-0.428-0.562-0.590-0.765-0.980
/ {" {5 Z, e. U1 i0 i15-1.294-1.330-1.473-1.668-1.951-0.379-0.538-0.553-0.747-0.979
' x3 {( F1 b, J2 g  ?$ H$ G16-1.313-1.346-1.512-1.715-2.011-0.331-0.515-0.515-0.729-0.979: m* A! i6 ?, w$ M. a: {" N) t2 v
17-1.332-1.362-1.552-1.761-2.071-0.284-0.493-0.476-0.712-0.979! m8 z) o. `  _- g  H  i
18-1.351-1.377-1.595-1.808-2..130-0.237-0.473-0.436-0.696-0.979$ R0 q7 ~( O! g$ E, ]6 \" b
19-1.371-1.393-1.641-1.854-2.187-0.190-0.453-0.394-0.680-0.9811 T: u- p2 J4 J, e- z
20-1.390-1.408-1.689-1.900-2.243-0.145-0.435-0.352-0.665-0.983
3 N/ L( Z/ R8 b) Y, Y5 i6 ]21-1.410-1.422-1.739-1.945-2.298-0.101-0.418-0.308-0.651-0.9869 l. ^! h* A; v1 y- i7 I8 T& d: t
22-1.429-1.437-1.793-1.989-2.351-0.058-0.402-0.262-0.638-0.989
* s$ U: k( S/ |# i( F' j23-1.448-1.451-1.850-2.033-2.403-0.016-0.387-0.215-0.626-0.993  H$ W8 X8 z: P
24-1.467-1.465-1.909-2.076-2.4520.024-0.374-0.166-0.614-0.997
* v  s9 I; A4 u  \25-1.486-1.479-1.972-2.117-2.5000.063-0.361-0.116-0.604-1.0028 g: D% }4 W9 Y! a. j

從表可以看出,X=0時押莊的收益率和前一節計算出的有細微的差別,這是由于這里的計算是根據少牌或多牌的張數對1/13作修正來代替牌實際出現的概率造成的,但結果的精度還是相當高的。

由表可以得出結論,剩牌中“10”、“A”、“2”、“3”、“4”多,押莊的收益率減小,其中以“4”的影響最大,“10“最弱。

剩牌中“5”、“6”、“7”、“8”、“9”多,押莊的收益率增加,其中以“5”的影響最大,“9“最弱。 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

但押莊的收益率隨X值的變化并不明顯,只有在極爲極端的情況下,才有收益率大于0的情況出現。 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

爲便于認識每種牌對押莊收益率的改善程度,現在列出相對于X=0時押莊收益率的變化值。


; h' {5 E% T, _- r7 N/ ~表7-2-4 賭客的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系 X= 少牌或多牌的種類+ z3 H4 ?# [( ~, n' F5 ~, J
10A23456789/ s" |  S. e. ?5 y
-80.0610.1590.1980.1430.321-0.199-0.464-0.341-0.166-0.095
) M, l5 f" O1 B: w4 [- i-70.0560.1390.1700.1360.291-0.187-0.398-0.290-0.147-0.0820 [# u" ?9 X7 ]- ]& |: v) O8 z
-60.0510.1190.1440.1250.258-0.170-0.334-0.242-0.128-0.069
2 p- a0 C* Z3 T. O-50.0440.0980.1180.1110.222-0.149-0.272-0.197-0.107-0.056$ z; ?: A7 e/ v1 \
-40.0370.0790.0930.0940.183-0.125-0.213-0.154-0.087-0.0446 `+ M$ h/ x5 Z) t' e6 b2 i
-30.0290.0590.0690.0750.141-0.098-0.156-0.113-0.065-0.032
6 V! S9 J: d+ X+ f-20.0200.0390.0460.0520.096-0.068-0.102-0.074-0.044-0.0216 ^8 P" \9 H4 |
-10.0100.0190.0230.0270.049-0.035-0.050-0.036-0.022-0.010
; g, o; c* ?. ]6 B% _00.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
# i( w  E6 P3 W# i) R4 L2 W8 y( a1-0.011-0.019-0.023-0.030-0.0510.0370.0480.0350.0220.010' b, `# O  g, P- e$ E+ ?8 r3 S5 h/ J& O
2-0.023-0.038-0.045-0.061-0.1050.0770.0940.0700.0450.019* O7 ?7 o5 |2 G
3-0.035-0.057-0.068-0.095-0.1600.1180.1370.1040.0670.028
9 @+ }, A  T; d6 Y) b  I$ o4-0.049-0.076-0.091-0.131-0.2170.1610.1790.1370.0890.036
8 f/ m6 x$ _  X' r! E' _5-0.062-0.094-0.115-0.168-0.2750.2050.2190.1700.1110.044
8 N8 \: H  n: N" C6-0.077-0.112-0.139-0.207-0.3340.2500.2570.2020.1340.051
' S- k7 O7 I, I  t$ }: M7-0.092-0.130-0.164-0.248-0.3940.2970.2930.2350.1550.0572 B  h1 A0 A# f8 y. Q5 d+ q9 a" @
8-0.108-0.148-0.190-0.289-0.4550.3440.3280.2680.1770.063' P+ L) V! [) N" o
9-0.124-0.166-0.217-0.332-0.5160.3920.3610.3010.1980.0688 o! k) L" I' d, z% B6 R
10-0.140-0.183-0.245-0.376-0.5780.4400.3920.3350.2190.072: f8 p* P; C: y
11-0.157-0.200-0.275-0.420-0.6400.4890.4220.3690.2400.076
' b$ a6 x2 [( n2 N4 o# m12-0.175-0.217-0.306-0.466-0.7020.5380.4500.4030.2600.0791 I1 V, l( d( Y  r, X; L
13-0.193-0.234-0.339-0.512-0.7640.5870.4770.4380.2800.082/ v9 G3 r! a6 V& L& [
14-0.211-0.250-0.373-0.558-0.8260.6360.5020.4740.2990.084
5 g% m+ Y$ a/ {( f" g/ s/ K) l15-0.230-0.266-0.409-0.604-0.8870.6850.5260.5110.3170.0851 K$ `. X8 O+ F
16-0.249-0.282-0.448-0.651-0.9470.7330.5490.5490.3350.085/ }; C4 s6 m3 X9 S# e6 ~
17-0.268-0.298-0.448-0.697-1.0070.7800.5710.5880.3520.085
2 ^6 I9 B2 J5 e8 R* \& f18-0.287-0.313-0.531-0.744-1.0660.8270.5910.6280.3680.085
6 N, Y+ w. m9 j19-0.307-0.329-0.577-0.790-1.1230.8740.6110.6700.3840.083. n6 y0 I8 f& D  E3 \7 O4 Y
20-0.326-0.344-0.625-0.836-1.1790.9190.6290.7120.3990.081
) R% P8 ]. o4 v  e  f21-0.346-0.358-0.675-0.881-1.2340.9630.6460.7560.4130.078. ?) k/ c! J* w% h$ E; d
22-0.365-0.373-0.729-0.925-1.2871.0060.6620.8020.4260.0752 i* j0 v9 `) o8 D, K* E% Z
23-0.384-0.387-0.786-0.969-1.3391.0480.6770.8490.4380.071# T1 y' Q3 X1 V5 k' T7 v$ T* f, b* K
24-0.403-0.401-0.845-1.012-1.3881.0880.6900.8980.4500.067
# ]0 D9 L; t8 U% H& N7 U$ c25-0.422-0.415-0.908-1.053-1.4361.1270.7030.9480.4600.062! ]7 \" a4 @! `( e" c

此表是總結百家樂算牌系統的依據。

二 閑 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

研究百家樂的收益率是同時得到“莊”、“閑”、“和”的結果,爲了讀起來更方便,我們把“莊”、“閑”、“和”的結果分別列出來,下面是押閑的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系。

. O9 Q, ^  u! X# p6 H
押閑的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系 X= 少牌或多牌的種類
7 x' Z9 ]1 {4 y% L6 \10A23456789
2 V$ c* q1 w1 k-8-1.285-1.389-1.432-1.373-1.558-1.024-0.759-0.884-1.044-1.122
0 g7 R. d# i; w* p-7-1.280-1.369-1.404-1.366-1.528-1.038-0.827-0.936-1.066-1.137
) w% n1 z3 a2 _8 C-6-1.275-1.348-1.377-1.356-1.494-1.055-0.892-0.985-1.089-1.152, y6 z5 Y9 E8 Y4 A; }6 X' ^1 O
-5-1.269-1.328-1.350-1.342-1.457-1.076-0.954-1.031-1.111-1.166
5 l( P- m- g3 c# E3 F-4-1.263-1.308-1.325-1.325-1.417-1.101-1.0141.074-1.134-1.180
( `) ?  n% Y" S. y- u-3-1.255-1.288-1.300-1.305-1.374-1.128-1.071-1.115-1.158-1.193
* k- z% j# s4 f! [-2-1.247-1.268-1.276-1.282-1.328-1.159-1.126-1.155-1.181-1.205
- M+ k- W) Y0 T-1-1.238-1.248-1.252-1.256-1.279-1.192-1.178-1.192-1.205-1.217/ N) z# P& M4 ~8 ?" o: w8 d9 P
0-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228
- x+ v( e% m$ U) k$ j1-1.218-1.209-1.205-1.197-1.175-1.266-1.276-1.263-1.252-1.239
9 S. g+ R) X$ v/ L  V; T2-1.206-1.189-1.181-1.164-1.120-1.306-1.321-1.297-1.275-1.249
' x. F8 `- C7 G3 [( V5 {. N# M, K1 x3-1.194-1.170-1.157-1.129-1.063-1.348-1.364-1.330-1.298-1.258
: b1 @7 c0 K8 p$ B# ^/ l. K7 d, D4-1.181-1.151-1.133-1.092-1.004-1.392-1.405-1.362-1.321-1.266: |" |, l/ u3 S
5-1.168-1.132-1.108-1.053-0.944-1.437-1.444-1.394-1.344-1.274! `2 w' Z7 m9 F( a: y! F6 n& h, |: K
6-1.153-1.114-1.083-1.012-0.883-1.483-1.482-1.426-1.367-1.281
! x6 `+ F' n, Y/ L% |; h# @$ m7-1.138-1.095-1.057-0.969-0.821-1.530-1.517-1.458-1.389-1.287& x( L! y$ g# t! C
8-1.123-1.077-1.030-0.926-0.758-1.578-1.551-1.489-1.411-1.2932 @$ t2 c. p7 ^6 N7 s
9-1.107-1.059-1.002-0.880-0.694-1.627-1.583-1.521-1.432-1.298
% s7 u. V7 ?7 ~1 M# K3 @10-1.090-1.042-0.972-0.834-0.630-1.676-1.613-1.553-1.453-1.302: F2 _: ^$ P) E6 Y* u+ o
11-1.072-1.024-0.941-0.787-0.566-1.726-1.641-1.586-1.473-1.306
4 w4 d1 q$ S( R$ C- M1 s12-1.054-1.007-0.909-0.739-0.501-1.776-1.669-1.619-1.493-1.308
$ G! p- _' C( z, f13-1.035-0.990-0.875-0.690-0.437-1.825-1.694-1.653-1.512-1.310
1 T! A" g0 w4 X9 J14-1.016-0.973-0.839-0.640-0.373-1.875-1.719-1.688-1.531-1.311# B; D/ i( c# D) H/ v5 K! ~
15-0.997-0.957-0.801-0.590-0.309-1.925-1.742-1.724-1.548-1.3118 {" R7 b& ~2 K
16-0.976-0.940-0.761-0.540-0.246-1.974-1.763-1.761-1.565-1.311' l1 Y$ @. \0 p. G9 ~
17-0.956-0.924-0.718-0.489-0.184-2.022-1.784-1.799-1.581-1.3106 H: y0 z1 o! L& W" V
18-0.935-0.908-0.673-0.439-0.123-2.070-1.803-1.838-1.596-1.308) O, n, {& T0 F8 w; v
19-0.913-0.893-0.625-0.388-0.063-2.117-1.821-1.878-1.611-1.3055 S/ r$ Q& p- }% h& c0 c1 h& L
20-0.891-0.877-0.575-0.338-0.004-2.163-1.838-1.920-1.624-1.301
3 j$ A" _3 O9 B21-0.869-0.862-0.521-0.2880.054-0.207-1.854-1.963-1.636-1.297
8 \% Q# a8 c$ K+ U  C2 m22-0.847-0.847-0.465-0.2380.110-2.251-1.869-2.008-1.648-1.292
: M3 v2 r) D1 b0 o& w; x23-0.824-0.832-0.405-0.1890.164-2.293-1.883-2.054-1.658-1.286! B4 A% E7 I* I  i1 S
24-0.801-0.818-0.343-0.1400.217-2.334-1.896-2.101-1.667-1.279: Z$ L3 d1 t+ H& X  v* C8 E
25-0.777-0.804-0.276-0.0920.268-2.374-1.907-2.151-1.675-1.272) d, ^- c$ A: D

 

由表可以得出結論,剩牌中“10”、“A”、“2”、“3”、“4”多,押閑的收益率增加,其中以“4”的影響最大,“10“最弱。剩牌中“5”、“6”、“7”、“8”、“9”多,押閑的收益率減少,其中以“5”的影響最大,“9“最弱。但押閑的收益率隨X值的變化也不明顯,只有在極爲極端的情況下,才有收益率大于0的情況出現。爲便于認識每種牌對押閑收益率的改善程度,同樣也列出相對于X=0時押閑的收益率的變化值。

avatar
每次赌钱必先看一下
avatar
但是这个帖子感觉没怎么看懂
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4#
我可能太笨了,不太懂,有谁看明白吗?楼主能不能简单一些
avatar
5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
我可能太笨了,不太懂,有谁看明白吗?
avatar
6#
似懂非懂………
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7#
我可能太笨了,不太懂,有谁看明白吗
avatar
双色球的概率是100000000000000000000000000000000分之一中奖,不还是有很多人买吗?所以楼主被老弄这么多虚无缥缈的东西来唬人行不。
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:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory:
:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
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