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[虚拟币交流]
比特币下跌，黄金触顶——但 Uptober 尚未结束（转）
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今年十月已经测试了比特币的[BTC]信徒。在通常被称为“Uptober”的月份过半时，BTC 发现自己处于陌生的境地，遭遇了历史上最糟糕的月中表现之一。
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但你看不到的是，比特币收盘上涨的可能性仍然很大，罕见的BTC-黄金图表细节也表明可能已经触底。
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9 j/ w4 _7 b: y4 T/ w/ b* }: a' pUptober 能否如期实现目标，还是说这将是它的终结？- h4 S+ E0 m0 \/ I3 R- u
h- X1 j5 r5 ]开局艰难，但历史看好牛市
) g5 ]( l4 w$ w9 x3 q$ p. K$ ^: _2025 年 10 月已经赢得了比特币十月份表现为有记录以来第二糟糕。对于通常看涨的月份来说，这是一个令人惊讶的转折。% N5 R& Q& H, \ {: _7 ~
3 k* Z m; D/ K. o7 A; Y: {# s. ~来源：Alphractal8 o! b! U7 O5 q8 T5 \
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15年来，只有四个10月份收盘下跌。但鉴于比特币最终上涨的可能性高达73%，胜算仍然对比特币有利。9 {$ |6 Y1 _0 i# C" O. Z5 U
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尽管开局不稳，但许多人相信本月结束前可能会转为看涨，保持这种势头。. G$ {% h( e4 c( ]
& C2 ~) W. O& v事情变得有趣了# w5 m9 J4 w& H" n: J0 m
BTC/黄金比率中罕见的信号表明形势可能很快就会发生转变。
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W8 S# d" M6 x: {0 g4 ]来源：X
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根据最近的数据，该比率已达到迄今为止仅在主要市场底部出现的水平，而这些时刻往往是从黄金转向比特币的最佳时机。8 x7 n4 y: f- h" ?2 K, W" ?: T5 w
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BTC/黄金震荡指标徘徊在-1.8左右，从历史上看，这与BTC开始跑赢黄金的周期低点相关。
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正如 Alphractal 首席执行官 Joao Wedson 所说，该图表“基本上是在大声疾呼”现在是“出售黄金、购买比特币的时候了”。
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随着黄金价格处于高位，而比特币出现触底信号，风险回报方程现在可能更倾向于加密货币，而不是传统的避风港。/ {5 E% D' P) f
6 N# M1 p5 b1 l$ j' z空头在 10.7 万美元附近失去动力
/ l1 c) D( r& p7 b8 C1 `9 {/ X经过几天的持续抛售，截至发稿时，比特币似乎稳定在 107,000 美元左右。
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来源：TradingView6 T8 \0 v; T9 w2 z1 I
( l, c2 c% i/ M8 |! v3 }日线图显示看跌势头减弱，RSI 指标显示 BTC 处于超卖区域。与此同时，MACD 图柱趋于平缓；如果买盘活跃，则可能出现动能逆转。
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然而，BTC 的交易价格仍然低于关键 EMA（20、50、100），整体趋势仍看跌。
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突破 110,000 美元的决定性举措可能确认复苏，但在此之前，有点乐观永远不会伤害任何人。
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