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[lastpost] => 2764827 a16z致创业者:与其拯救低留存率,不如直接转型(转) 1757607953 不傻不成气候
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1. 宏观因素影响市场走势
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过去一周市场涨跌主要受宏观经济数据影响,包括美国未来的降息预期、上周的非农数据和失业率,以及本周即将公布的PPI与CPI数据。, z# h$ P, v, Q
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PPI助推反弹:昨晚公布的PPI数据低于市场预期,被认为是近期少见的利好消息。PPI同比上涨3.3%(预期3.5%),核心PPI同比上涨3.5%(预期3.8%),这让市场信心得到了一定恢复。
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: e# M2 S1 D. C) ]& m/ Z6 jCPI才是关键:今晚的CPI数据更为重要,市场预期CPI同比为2.9%(前值2.7%),核心CPI预期为3.3%。如果数据能保持在预期或持平的水平,大饼(比特币)可能重回10万美元上方,并延续市场的炒作行情。
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& B. J) M$ g9 H2. 比特币市场现状与未来预期
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; K6 ?4 s, x& p; x当前持仓成本:; Z3 j5 I6 `9 O5 N! Y* r
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机构的平均持仓成本在8.1万美元左右;" r$ C D& t) P& E; k) Q
; U( y- Q' U+ H+ S微策略因早期进场,平均成本约为6.2万美元;, o& z5 W: x# ]
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ETF持仓成本约在7万美元上下。. S2 N( ]9 b# v3 z6 o
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比特币价值回归:# z/ ^- J2 O( r5 C
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市场大部分散户的低价筹码已经交割完毕,当前持币主力成本价在6-8万美元区间。
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I, l3 @6 J8 {* d随着更多公司和国家效仿萨尔瓦多将比特币纳入战略储备,比特币的流通将越来越少,机构预测其价格有望达到15万甚至20万美元。
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加密资产的国家效应:萨尔瓦多因比特币政策而成为中美洲金融科技中心,吸引了像Tether这样的大型加密公司入驻。
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3. 市场热点与反弹情况 ~, ^7 Q: |2 E5 ?+ u4 r
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ETH:4 a7 p6 v; c- N- f3 v* K, v; F
4 C( f& i% p% z; j0 n虽然受到大量抛售的质疑,但以太坊价格总体稳定,汇率回升至0.033。) y0 i; p) l: ^" w9 Q+ }
2 E! \6 O6 J$ g! H: b机构普遍认为以太坊本轮高点或达到1万美元。3 f8 f. R. l3 l& h$ R
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BTC:' y2 x4 d$ }) z# H
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尽管ETF持续外流且贝莱德带头抛售,比特币依然维持强势。& A! `$ H G) e/ H* V- D
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如果今晚CPI数据利好,突破10万美元可能性极大。
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! t7 V- ^9 G1 y6 z4 ?SOL与XRP:: x M# Q% u6 Y
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SOL走势强劲,被认为是AI生态的主导者。摩根大通预计SOL与XRP的ETF即将推出,或吸引150亿美元资金入场。0 J+ V g# q' _' r
2 c4 j% K. ~7 WXRP走势超强,多次占据韩所榜首,有市场声音预测其价格达到10美元、市值超越以太坊。7 P) F3 L& _" F2 Q! l
' Z' d- {, f& d3 R其他热点项目:
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涉及ETF或政策的项目如$hbar、$algo、$ada等走势同样强劲。
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山寨市场近期普遍上涨,市场预计Q1可能迎来牛市爆发。; U1 ~" i2 @8 @- z
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4. AI赛道与新兴项目
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; o8 C3 h3 [2 b1 V k# L: |AI领域表现突出,板块总市值达160亿美元,近期涨幅明显。, h0 f" |/ X; V1 j2 u# z# k
* i7 t* y9 s+ R0 @$ g( b蓝筹项目:如$ai16z、$virtual和$aixbt等市值迅速攀升,部分实现翻倍增长。
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新兴项目:正经团队推出的AI项目表现稳健,例如$mates和$sora已获得市场认可。
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]. N* s( _; F1 L/ z! N( L1 a市场展望
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7 f% k8 F0 H# |5 f( _! b随着宏观经济环境和政策明朗,加密市场有望迎来更多利好。山寨牛市或在第一季度爆发,AI、主流币、以及新兴应用赛道将继续成为市场焦点。
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