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[体育菠菜心得方法]
《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘
$ ?, U& |7 T- \2 G# t ) A6 I! |* h5 c" Y) c/ _; ~
平手中水,主队有利* [1 l% l3 A; s
在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。% _" @) D9 t/ f# H
09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:
1 D4 f! w, g4 f6 ] 英超主队: X! o" _$ k2 r3 ~8 |; g. i+ h
胜:13场 48%+ h( e1 |* S( f) ?" `
平:5场 17%
) E5 J9 ~9 ]$ G$ d8 \ 负:9场 35%5 r$ [/ e" u9 \0 x
通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。! Y+ w! h! X8 s7 `& `$ ?
# w0 R# {3 M: O2 H( K) \2 @8 d 一、初盘阶段
/ H- h. y9 g' b8 W$ J# ~3 l 具体到水位如下: @/ t( t9 v$ l6 Y
初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负" {# z; x! \- D+ h3 b
初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负
8 O. m$ y7 h2 r8 M 初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负
4 U0 {% E; @: V. r6 L 0 U. A6 O6 m( j1 a n) h" g8 g6 ]
分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。
$ D5 M2 }# S' G8 u8 r: P! E" g 初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。
6 g" {6 w1 e n9 M+ `. {4 o 初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。
, n7 J7 p, P* l+ N 1 ~6 O7 p% O0 r
二、临场阶段7 d) E! D+ `3 n; H7 t0 L
0 m1 o! v+ t) c, {( n9 c( H E7 Y( J
具体到变盘和水位如下:
* X7 U2 u' u% D% U; I, e, O 临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负
2 M$ h8 e/ Z& P3 Y1 l7 ~ 临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负
: X7 n4 K4 H1 a% i$ ^# N! h+ Z6 f; F 2 O' ~0 {) @+ p! B
临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。" W& c U/ X, @# \( e3 s
临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:
+ K, m6 c5 |, A; p U/ _% F: D " ~. c9 @) ~: p
朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿7 C4 S$ ]5 @( J# B0 _. n
初盘:0.82平手1.048 S) b& u5 J; {" q+ C; E3 p6 `
终盘:1.01平手/半球0.85
* z( B+ d/ x1 K! _1 l5 @* ^+ z' X
+ [) f; K9 t; Y. f, o8 o 朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆
* I* W" a9 } }7 b" e1 L" y) h 初盘:0.76平手1.10$ w9 ]) r# { F8 x- a% C; P9 d
终盘:0.95平手/半球0.919 @, i! ?: a0 _5 c
+ r" f( Y$ x1 Z- @
朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技$ M3 n2 u+ U0 L% L, K9 m
初盘:0.82平手1.04
: k3 P N* G( N/ e$ S, X6 d) H 终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98
! K; i7 B! S: c5 ~: T' j
# S1 K4 ^* s( n2 M' N" F" h 伯恩利2-1西汉姆
. ]1 s4 e3 B0 f$ r+ M/ I 初盘:0.88平手0.98
, F2 F' z( t1 u8 Y; U- R8 A 终盘:1.12平/半0.74/ n' _0 L+ w% E4 s# ?
我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。
! c+ S/ W" Z* b 提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。: s1 O' t$ {" x, v+ Y6 ~
提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。( ^" M) e2 k" r- j7 W% x8 t
$ Z. C4 d7 t/ n. |. `
三、球队表现; v9 Z7 E4 M* W/ d5 m; A
8 Q- [* d' |% W! V4 M! } 结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。
7 |, K# r" T3 k$ r; ^$ K# m, e7 X1 q . q8 B6 m9 f, f) g
四、投注要点* n3 r! r. A" K$ R% |1 ]
要点1:平手中水、主多不败
" j+ j. a+ X+ w" ~5 z 要点2:平手降盘、走两头8 w1 u: c9 \! N9 ~% ~9 P, }
要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败- q1 u7 n! \$ n: {% l, [ v: l6 P
要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大; I. D: Q$ X- y0 i& D
要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任
/ d6 g6 |4 U* w' i5 w" S/ A 要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大
4 B# Y+ j7 Y( v7 ^2 Z 要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛 |
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