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[体育菠菜心得方法] 《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘
( M. ], }3 t1 f3 ~: }0 F6 P# X1 R2 m     
# M8 F: ~3 {7 X, x( q9 R' A# t     平手中水,主队有利
# b, f0 V1 Q, e" Q     在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。: g3 @( P4 ]( z+ h& v$ c+ i
     09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:9 t) X8 p- j6 f9 k6 J
     英超主队& s4 Q+ I2 `9 y
     胜:13场 48%& n8 q$ W# Q: `$ W
     平:5场 17%
: T+ C8 d; I- v4 C5 t# R9 g     负:9场 35%. K* Q! T& q9 Q  ]* G# q: P9 y
     通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。
0 l  Z( K! l8 d3 m, }$ J     
( U- ?5 x& F6 I     一、初盘阶段$ R2 J; K8 t+ w' q* i
     具体到水位如下:
5 l3 \$ E: _: S2 Z/ w1 f     初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负
' z/ ]2 o# t/ H0 Y: G% R     初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负* |% f7 Y4 k# ^
     初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负) U- F7 _' S. s0 O
     
& \4 [6 n, ~! M     分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。8 `% o0 E' D7 v9 ?
     初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。
# c: b1 g. _  m8 [! M& z0 I     初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。2 E4 ?5 o3 |& P% q/ C
     
! i' H' o3 I" H2 D4 F6 ~) _, U$ N8 k     二、临场阶段
9 E+ g; {9 }$ t     4 \0 E. z7 H6 p9 q
     具体到变盘和水位如下:
% Q5 o$ U- Z8 A2 @" N) |     临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负8 P5 c: |% d- E( b
     临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负1 k* w7 L0 b: D. `" o# z+ J+ R
     
6 T2 V( }9 s3 s. [: k( _     临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。
3 ]8 P! H! V8 @' Q     临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:
# k1 R+ \, z+ j* P2 j3 i     & @% V2 x( l9 K1 {! i4 i7 ^, C
     朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿( k: t, B9 p3 i4 p& ~
     初盘:0.82平手1.04! U# U+ \8 p3 e
     终盘:1.01平手/半球0.85" d, d+ v) C: h$ ?/ v# ^
     % ]# P/ S/ G* f: F4 U! V$ Y
     朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆
# J! F- }( R+ |5 [  ]     初盘:0.76平手1.108 v  e8 T5 `2 W8 P
     终盘:0.95平手/半球0.91% k0 E. B) R6 F" y1 ?" i! T" H
     ! R9 I# Z+ i7 O! h3 l
     朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技
4 U, V' U- w4 G; v     初盘:0.82平手1.04
' V- A" h) J: {' M     终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98# C) t/ k+ y( L( I5 e0 i
     
. z+ N. D# D5 }4 P7 \" ^, a     伯恩利2-1西汉姆# G% C: M/ @& f% Z9 b% j
     初盘:0.88平手0.98* y5 y6 O% Y& l% `2 }
     终盘:1.12平/半0.74( |8 }3 ?; V1 Y3 d
     我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。( @' S! |# |; b( _+ i5 g( v2 t
     提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。
# {) y  B6 C; r1 S+ K6 D     提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。4 k0 s& @2 y+ K; T) i
     
/ k  L$ Q' u7 p& ^     三、球队表现
& t; g5 t6 D/ U* c4 t     
0 s+ J, c! }: a9 B& o5 S# _" Z     结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。
3 s: R. G2 f- `# B$ `- y2 I7 z7 T     ) r) f5 e+ D. P
     四、投注要点
( ^3 w- [* `! y8 x     要点1:平手中水、主多不败4 i: Q4 _6 ?( D% j" H1 Z/ u2 b
     要点2:平手降盘、走两头6 i) j1 p0 d! B% Y
     要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败  |8 w: @: m. v' }' f
     要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大5 l& Q3 D& z  C
     要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任
" S# F; D7 d! x9 |     要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大  w: P6 \/ M% s; g8 H% D
     要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛
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新人来学习下,谢谢楼主。
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谢谢楼主的心得分享!
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