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[虚拟币资讯]
币世界余勋6.2 缩表为弥补去年放水 而放水初期低点其实就在5.19两万七 长线以此为据
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在大部分人认为6月的50加息+缩表、基本在5月的下行中、得到有效释放、
3 ]. f1 C% U8 G' Q余勋也不例外、 2 D3 |% E4 ~9 y; F* l5 h. b2 k
其中最关键的是美联储26号纪要、会灵活对待加息。 4 h+ G4 ^# |, l. h# P% W3 ?+ g0 \
是保经济的重要决策！
# T' ~# Z, w, {% p2 @这其中美股迎来了阶段连涨、大饼也四连阳、 ' \4 ]& A7 D; X8 D% n- o# O; X# S
低点26700-32400、 ) e8 ~3 l& t U
反弹近六千点、以太低点反弹近300点。 3 d w! S5 h' o+ w- }6 G U
但仅仅在缩表两个交易日、
9 n- j4 s5 ?6 i$ D9 O大饼回撤幅度达到三千点、以太近200点。 2 t9 Z' v4 |. q5 D# U
涨幅就已回撤过半！ # C7 j3 {+ t( u0 k/ y8 B
所以暂时来看，期待的靴子落地效应基本告吹。
/ Z# Y, d3 b, J2 t/ c& v' a4 ^0 R不是利空没有得到释放、是市场做多情绪无法调动。
3 G: f6 W6 z7 \其次、
, B8 U6 ]. M; ?0 @ Z缩表大致会延续至2024年初、 ( o5 O0 t2 l; W8 p# t$ ]7 l
每月950亿、直至达到1.5万亿美元、
6 r! q& k* m' t等于说、这期间会持续在蓄水池中进行抽水。
- T& x x7 B$ C( y4 j6 K美股想大肆上行也是有心无力。
9 |/ i- Z) u& ?2 r7 q; c但回到币圈、
! M! Q, y. M1 w' \4 G去年牛市因5.19去中心化大跌、 ; U" u. V; P5 A' d; H' t
在27000附近。美联储大幅度在放水、迎来第二轮周期牛市。
3 e- Q, q n' R8 d而现在弥补这个放水漏洞、而行情其实已经在放水底部附近。
0 d3 R% {( Y( V7 P" A( n6 a个人认为、在经历了加息初期、中期恐慌、
. f( e) S5 w6 H ]4 ]缩表虽是实质利空，但终究是缓慢的。 4 J: I4 S; r: i8 d7 @$ h
对当前的底部、影响有限。
* o& B/ W4 k: m& G% G' h5 b' d7 s3 `最不济、缩表启动至结束、行情依然处于放水初期币圈阶段。也就是当前27000-30000附近。 5 f7 y V+ y5 D
所以27000、即是 ( d/ o) }) H$ Y( Y
去年5.19低点、也是今年5.12（加息50基点+缩表恐慌低点） : _" R ]3 ]. C( c
同时还是去年放水初期低点、 8 E& N& [: ^" X3 r1 W
也会是今年缩表弥补去年放水周期的低点。 * j& l( \1 \, l$ }6 ~+ { _
由此得出的结论是、 : w% Q7 z) }" R8 b. Z
加息+缩表等实质利空、市场年度最大创伤、底部就在27000附近、而以太就在1700附近。
4 m9 Y# ]$ Q. u, J8 V点位不会出现太大偏离。
$ o, i8 K# [ |8 \. t% ^& |; I8 {# b综合以上、 / \% i! D. y- L) y$ E: t
美股逐渐消化了加息、也开启缩表缓慢抽水、 $ }2 j3 [8 N6 A% I1 o
在整个运行过程中、会由初期的恐慌、缓慢下行，逐渐适应、止跌、然后徐徐补涨。 ) B/ p5 f7 c W
那操作上、无非缺乏了长线效应、 3 i( ^8 I I: d& m. b
抬头大肆上涨、条件匮乏！下行、最大利空由当初的注水点、再到完全调离这些注入资金。低点其实也都在这附近。 " s2 X9 M* r- L% h# H8 g
那行情其实还是围绕三万点、进行弱势整理。
7 F% X9 Z% K' r) ]# f: T$ c即难深跌、也难大涨，直至缩表有效、通胀得到控制。 / J3 z! f( x3 g4 [, d5 e
美股适应上行、市场逐步接受开始回暖。 9 w; i6 ~, t \6 v8 D7 ]( C
夜间美股走势平平、虽弱但不跌。 $ L- H- {7 H9 x: A) L
大饼无需追空、给一空间点位、 ( A2 k/ A% z# O
逢28000附近、以太1720附近可做短线接多点。 6 E3 _+ d, J0 [0 I5 o
高空需至31700-32000间布局、
, K5 o/ W( q6 `1 R/ j反之、空间不够、进场始终趋于震荡区中轨、
$ N1 o2 |. t' K+ v得不偿失。
( ^ V' @# {7 e来源：金色财经 |
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