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[真人] 百家樂投注研究二
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第二節 百家樂收益率的研究

賭戲分析的根本的是研究賭戲的賭博策略和相應的收益率。從表面看來百家樂似乎沒有和二十一點類似的策略,但它和二十一點一樣,用了多副牌,一局牌要玩很多輪,可以預料,百家樂也應該存在著一個浮動的收益率。

從前一節對百家樂基本資料的計算可以看出,這時計算出的是所有的牌都還在牌盒里,一張牌也還沒有發出時的收益率。

在荷官剛洗完牌,游戲尚未開始進行之前的初始狀態,在一副牌中,每種牌平均都有4張;隨著游戲的進行,這種狀態被打破,會出現各種各樣的偏離初始狀態的情形。和研究二十一點採用的方法一樣,我們首先研究比較特殊的情形,即平均到一副牌時,單獨一種牌數量的變化對賭客收益率的影響,以便認識這種牌在百家樂中的作用,從而得到對所有牌作用的認識。 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

假設某種牌的數量不是4張,而是比其他的牌多出了X張,爲4+0.5X張,那麼其余的12種牌必須少掉0.5X張才能保持數量上的平衡,爲了研究方便,我們認爲這12種牌的機會都一樣,他們都以相同的概率出現。這樣,在一副牌中多出X張的牌出現的概率爲:

(4+0.5X )/52=1/13×(1+X/8)

其余的牌出現的概率爲: ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

(4-0.5X/12)/52=1/13×(1-X/96)

在8副牌的情況下,X的可能取值爲-8爲X爲56。

和前一節的過程類似,我們可以得到對應于每一個X的取值下的收益率,在此我們省略推算過程,直接給出每種牌從少8張到多出25張的情況下,百家樂的收益率。

一 莊 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

& }5 F. d- V/ M
賭客的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系 X= 少牌或多牌的種類
' @+ z) _' k6 I* W% V4 {: H6 X  ~4 b! ~10A23456789
7 F) m$ O) t5 T) }* Y, o-8-1.003-0.905-0.866-0.921-0.743-1.263-1.528-1.405-1.230-1.1598 U/ J# A" H( j
-7-1.008-0.925-0.894-0.928-0.773-1.250-1.462-1.354-1.211-1.146& t* Y' k1 o9 R
-6-1.013-0.945-0.920-0.939-0.806-1.234-1.398-1.306-1.192-1.133$ t! D4 o# t1 G, R7 Z
-5-1.020-0.966-0.946-0.953-0.842-1.213-1.336-1.261-1.171-1.120$ v1 H5 Q# l0 S3 D" r/ N* C
-4-1.027-0.985-0.971-0.970-0.881-1.189-1.277-1.218-1.151-1.1086 M9 a% I; C% d
-3-1.035-1.005-0.995-0.989-0.923-1.162-1.220-1.177-1.129-1.096
5 @9 b7 V  Q4 O-2-1.044-1.025-1.018-1.012-0.968-1.132-1.166-1.138-1.108-1.085& r$ T( A/ P) q* d
-1-1.054-1.045-1.041-1.037-1.015-1.099-1.114-1.100-1.086-1.074
5 l. f$ ]. A6 ~0 k2 P0-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.0644 h% b- F2 O  \% U3 Q4 w
1-1.075-1.083-1.087-1.094-1.115-1.027-1.016-1.029-1.042-1.0544 h. e- K8 _+ s. ]1 B! `) R1 M
2-1.087-1.102-1.109-1.125-1.169-0.987-0.970-0.994-1.019-1.045
) s4 v# Y7 E. m# [1 r: V' P3-1.099-1.121-1.132-1.159-1.224-0.946-0.927-0.960-0.997-1.036
/ P2 {& F* v9 K- ?5 Y$ z' n) U4-1.113-1.140-1.155-1.195-1.281-0.903-0.885-0.927-0.975-1.028
" F) H4 f; h; R3 E! m5-1.126-1.158-1.179-1.232-1.339-0.859-0.845-0.894-0.953-1.020
& w! @( x' x& E/ K# X0 q0 g6-1.141-1.176-1.203-1.271-1.398-0.814-0.807-0.862-0.930-1.0138 u8 P: q6 g) g  X" Y& a; w
7-1.156-1.194-1.228-1.312-1.458-0.767-0.771-0.829-0.909-1.007
$ t: O' N) D# a2 d& A8-1.172-1.212-1.254-1.353-1.519-0.720-0.736-0.796-0.887-1.001
6 U" W8 h/ E; u; \8 _9-1.188-1.230-1.281-1.396-1.580-0.672-0.703-0.763-0.866-0.996
8 X: I$ h7 Y1 C/ m10-1.204-1.247-1.309-1.440-1.642-0.624-0.672-0.729-0.845-0.992) ^4 c. J2 t& A" r# f$ c* b- P0 p
11-1.221-1.264-1.339-1.484-1.704-0.575-0.642-0.695-0.824-0.988- r- w  \* V& l$ c; n# [7 W
12-1.239-1.281-1.370-1.530-1.766-0.526-0.614-0.661-0.804-0.985
" [5 o5 Y; ~# b% |% `/ V" [13-1.257-1.298-1.403-1.576-1.828-0.477-0.587-0.626-0.784-0.9829 b+ s; H% ~( V( r
14-1.275-1.314-1.437-1.622-1.890-0.428-0.562-0.590-0.765-0.980( X/ m* M( o0 w6 x+ N: U' O
15-1.294-1.330-1.473-1.668-1.951-0.379-0.538-0.553-0.747-0.979% q! h) v! h7 h& n/ R
16-1.313-1.346-1.512-1.715-2.011-0.331-0.515-0.515-0.729-0.979
5 \$ b. U  O0 e6 L17-1.332-1.362-1.552-1.761-2.071-0.284-0.493-0.476-0.712-0.979
2 y3 A" O8 U$ J% l/ |0 r18-1.351-1.377-1.595-1.808-2..130-0.237-0.473-0.436-0.696-0.979" O5 X* G8 |2 b6 G% q+ B  J
19-1.371-1.393-1.641-1.854-2.187-0.190-0.453-0.394-0.680-0.981$ F: S( [$ [$ y
20-1.390-1.408-1.689-1.900-2.243-0.145-0.435-0.352-0.665-0.983
5 f& v3 ~# P, n21-1.410-1.422-1.739-1.945-2.298-0.101-0.418-0.308-0.651-0.9866 ]% f: ~+ s* ~
22-1.429-1.437-1.793-1.989-2.351-0.058-0.402-0.262-0.638-0.989. @' ?# F8 y" s* x) K
23-1.448-1.451-1.850-2.033-2.403-0.016-0.387-0.215-0.626-0.993
% n- |% ~! Z. Z0 P24-1.467-1.465-1.909-2.076-2.4520.024-0.374-0.166-0.614-0.9970 a" _5 [8 ^4 J8 @  I! [; D/ `
25-1.486-1.479-1.972-2.117-2.5000.063-0.361-0.116-0.604-1.002
- w! o- X1 ~1 G; s0 [" @  ]

從表可以看出,X=0時押莊的收益率和前一節計算出的有細微的差別,這是由于這里的計算是根據少牌或多牌的張數對1/13作修正來代替牌實際出現的概率造成的,但結果的精度還是相當高的。

由表可以得出結論,剩牌中“10”、“A”、“2”、“3”、“4”多,押莊的收益率減小,其中以“4”的影響最大,“10“最弱。

剩牌中“5”、“6”、“7”、“8”、“9”多,押莊的收益率增加,其中以“5”的影響最大,“9“最弱。 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

但押莊的收益率隨X值的變化并不明顯,只有在極爲極端的情況下,才有收益率大于0的情況出現。 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

爲便于認識每種牌對押莊收益率的改善程度,現在列出相對于X=0時押莊收益率的變化值。

9 x/ ~$ y5 t3 h3 x( z
表7-2-4 賭客的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系 X= 少牌或多牌的種類
( k% f1 z+ F3 Z$ u0 F  N( M10A23456789
, }4 m" _  Z6 u3 y5 r8 |3 p-80.0610.1590.1980.1430.321-0.199-0.464-0.341-0.166-0.095
$ O6 }8 T2 |7 R7 f) f  N-70.0560.1390.1700.1360.291-0.187-0.398-0.290-0.147-0.082! v, c( w8 r' k! ^' w4 r! |
-60.0510.1190.1440.1250.258-0.170-0.334-0.242-0.128-0.069  ~2 \" o! S9 k  K' K4 f5 @
-50.0440.0980.1180.1110.222-0.149-0.272-0.197-0.107-0.056
) G  k" S4 I# x3 u8 g# U0 R3 }-40.0370.0790.0930.0940.183-0.125-0.213-0.154-0.087-0.044
; \2 \7 m; ^* A" r$ h( x" ~-30.0290.0590.0690.0750.141-0.098-0.156-0.113-0.065-0.032; G3 @2 U. n1 G3 a8 }) s
-20.0200.0390.0460.0520.096-0.068-0.102-0.074-0.044-0.0218 T0 \2 {1 N+ O0 F6 W5 l/ |6 h7 r
-10.0100.0190.0230.0270.049-0.035-0.050-0.036-0.022-0.010
5 x& l/ S. N( v+ B$ J00.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000$ I6 j6 @2 ?# b# b: \6 ^& h3 R; ~2 v
1-0.011-0.019-0.023-0.030-0.0510.0370.0480.0350.0220.010, R) R: I) X3 {! X7 z4 ?! \
2-0.023-0.038-0.045-0.061-0.1050.0770.0940.0700.0450.019
4 `7 n8 b# _( R7 Y4 T2 ?3-0.035-0.057-0.068-0.095-0.1600.1180.1370.1040.0670.028
0 W9 y; P. `3 W! |4 ^4-0.049-0.076-0.091-0.131-0.2170.1610.1790.1370.0890.036; c( {/ H$ f  M, F
5-0.062-0.094-0.115-0.168-0.2750.2050.2190.1700.1110.044+ p4 K5 V+ g( d# f  E0 {
6-0.077-0.112-0.139-0.207-0.3340.2500.2570.2020.1340.051. U+ h& z- E/ v2 J/ H; e6 Z
7-0.092-0.130-0.164-0.248-0.3940.2970.2930.2350.1550.0574 O6 c- N* t% C
8-0.108-0.148-0.190-0.289-0.4550.3440.3280.2680.1770.063
5 ^+ ?3 B8 p# b( q' x) N9-0.124-0.166-0.217-0.332-0.5160.3920.3610.3010.1980.068' ^& X6 J7 J# D. `; U5 ]
10-0.140-0.183-0.245-0.376-0.5780.4400.3920.3350.2190.072
  |" r4 W+ g* c: T11-0.157-0.200-0.275-0.420-0.6400.4890.4220.3690.2400.076
/ s+ G! ~. Q/ f# V2 P( i! R9 r, @12-0.175-0.217-0.306-0.466-0.7020.5380.4500.4030.2600.079* E7 C8 t5 M2 k( H: r! q7 i2 t
13-0.193-0.234-0.339-0.512-0.7640.5870.4770.4380.2800.082/ o$ W: o/ F% K& l: \
14-0.211-0.250-0.373-0.558-0.8260.6360.5020.4740.2990.084
& ^0 }4 O" h5 D! b- z! N15-0.230-0.266-0.409-0.604-0.8870.6850.5260.5110.3170.0856 M6 E3 F8 w7 |& D; ^, f% B/ _
16-0.249-0.282-0.448-0.651-0.9470.7330.5490.5490.3350.085
% [; G4 w1 s9 K9 F& t4 f4 i17-0.268-0.298-0.448-0.697-1.0070.7800.5710.5880.3520.085! C+ c: e2 u" U' a. ?8 l6 Q
18-0.287-0.313-0.531-0.744-1.0660.8270.5910.6280.3680.085
" J! e4 y4 }6 _19-0.307-0.329-0.577-0.790-1.1230.8740.6110.6700.3840.083# ?$ w4 W- f6 h
20-0.326-0.344-0.625-0.836-1.1790.9190.6290.7120.3990.081; X3 _: A. x- d0 V
21-0.346-0.358-0.675-0.881-1.2340.9630.6460.7560.4130.078
" m/ {2 z' h5 `* v22-0.365-0.373-0.729-0.925-1.2871.0060.6620.8020.4260.075
5 B+ T) Z/ t* e) y" R8 z) e( f23-0.384-0.387-0.786-0.969-1.3391.0480.6770.8490.4380.071
8 k5 G; a9 I/ ~1 \+ @; }24-0.403-0.401-0.845-1.012-1.3881.0880.6900.8980.4500.067
' |5 A1 n7 e* I& k) T25-0.422-0.415-0.908-1.053-1.4361.1270.7030.9480.4600.062
0 u9 ^$ Z8 J1 A' u% W- o

此表是總結百家樂算牌系統的依據。

二 閑 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

研究百家樂的收益率是同時得到“莊”、“閑”、“和”的結果,爲了讀起來更方便,我們把“莊”、“閑”、“和”的結果分別列出來,下面是押閑的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系。


  X$ F0 t+ @/ L$ [  j  n/ ^押閑的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系 X= 少牌或多牌的種類
" R* C- e. Z  d- A* d10A23456789
4 K9 _9 {# l9 q$ x1 h5 I9 B, ^-8-1.285-1.389-1.432-1.373-1.558-1.024-0.759-0.884-1.044-1.122
& P' B1 u# A" J' G7 ]-7-1.280-1.369-1.404-1.366-1.528-1.038-0.827-0.936-1.066-1.1375 E4 }& c" v$ n+ U
-6-1.275-1.348-1.377-1.356-1.494-1.055-0.892-0.985-1.089-1.152
! l0 j' N0 N, U7 W; o  z-5-1.269-1.328-1.350-1.342-1.457-1.076-0.954-1.031-1.111-1.166
" O' ]5 k9 ?! E# ]1 s$ \-4-1.263-1.308-1.325-1.325-1.417-1.101-1.0141.074-1.134-1.1807 y0 \6 ?' C1 @* O0 N7 D$ Y0 x! b
-3-1.255-1.288-1.300-1.305-1.374-1.128-1.071-1.115-1.158-1.193: _; e6 V; N# e
-2-1.247-1.268-1.276-1.282-1.328-1.159-1.126-1.155-1.181-1.205# l- V: o0 i  \+ o1 m
-1-1.238-1.248-1.252-1.256-1.279-1.192-1.178-1.192-1.205-1.2172 }, L- {% O% l- {
0-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228" n, q+ p6 f3 _: u' t
1-1.218-1.209-1.205-1.197-1.175-1.266-1.276-1.263-1.252-1.239
8 @8 y7 c7 ?, K( u3 t2-1.206-1.189-1.181-1.164-1.120-1.306-1.321-1.297-1.275-1.249
$ }- G& o: K0 _4 @4 x3-1.194-1.170-1.157-1.129-1.063-1.348-1.364-1.330-1.298-1.258
" l/ `2 H2 C9 L% @* G& `2 s4-1.181-1.151-1.133-1.092-1.004-1.392-1.405-1.362-1.321-1.266' e3 \0 q2 `: Q# b# G
5-1.168-1.132-1.108-1.053-0.944-1.437-1.444-1.394-1.344-1.274
* w* y  I7 i( C6-1.153-1.114-1.083-1.012-0.883-1.483-1.482-1.426-1.367-1.281% k" I. T' x) Y4 s5 U  s7 f
7-1.138-1.095-1.057-0.969-0.821-1.530-1.517-1.458-1.389-1.287
2 c6 Q% S8 M% H  U! B9 ~0 y* y8-1.123-1.077-1.030-0.926-0.758-1.578-1.551-1.489-1.411-1.293
, s  T7 d" J8 j7 s0 \- K9-1.107-1.059-1.002-0.880-0.694-1.627-1.583-1.521-1.432-1.298
+ z3 _5 d8 S5 r; S5 c8 m$ d10-1.090-1.042-0.972-0.834-0.630-1.676-1.613-1.553-1.453-1.302
3 X, J/ `1 ~- F; V4 a) C11-1.072-1.024-0.941-0.787-0.566-1.726-1.641-1.586-1.473-1.306
& d$ \$ l  y/ f  d6 f! Z12-1.054-1.007-0.909-0.739-0.501-1.776-1.669-1.619-1.493-1.308
+ {, u4 B& @! i, T5 U13-1.035-0.990-0.875-0.690-0.437-1.825-1.694-1.653-1.512-1.310  V. ^* @6 n- w+ {3 Q
14-1.016-0.973-0.839-0.640-0.373-1.875-1.719-1.688-1.531-1.311
: \( Y) n+ W( Q; ?, ^15-0.997-0.957-0.801-0.590-0.309-1.925-1.742-1.724-1.548-1.311
; S: u4 d! Y1 c6 S7 j* s# A16-0.976-0.940-0.761-0.540-0.246-1.974-1.763-1.761-1.565-1.311* [4 x  [8 ]$ j" s6 d* C( D
17-0.956-0.924-0.718-0.489-0.184-2.022-1.784-1.799-1.581-1.310% |. v. ^4 X' }9 r
18-0.935-0.908-0.673-0.439-0.123-2.070-1.803-1.838-1.596-1.308. C$ c# K8 s9 J) t9 t! ?! `
19-0.913-0.893-0.625-0.388-0.063-2.117-1.821-1.878-1.611-1.305
; d( S+ j7 u: P2 \* ]20-0.891-0.877-0.575-0.338-0.004-2.163-1.838-1.920-1.624-1.301
  g/ C9 h0 K( `9 K" C2 h% x1 H21-0.869-0.862-0.521-0.2880.054-0.207-1.854-1.963-1.636-1.297
+ a2 ]+ j- g8 e5 _; J22-0.847-0.847-0.465-0.2380.110-2.251-1.869-2.008-1.648-1.292" C4 @; m: g5 Y( Z6 A! a
23-0.824-0.832-0.405-0.1890.164-2.293-1.883-2.054-1.658-1.2867 m) E* Z# w3 P  g5 J/ S
24-0.801-0.818-0.343-0.1400.217-2.334-1.896-2.101-1.667-1.279
" d& F4 j( w) j2 _. D; M25-0.777-0.804-0.276-0.0920.268-2.374-1.907-2.151-1.675-1.2721 T, e' `: P( [4 m9 I: i

 

由表可以得出結論,剩牌中“10”、“A”、“2”、“3”、“4”多,押閑的收益率增加,其中以“4”的影響最大,“10“最弱。剩牌中“5”、“6”、“7”、“8”、“9”多,押閑的收益率減少,其中以“5”的影響最大,“9“最弱。但押閑的收益率隨X值的變化也不明顯,只有在極爲極端的情況下,才有收益率大于0的情況出現。爲便于認識每種牌對押閑收益率的改善程度,同樣也列出相對于X=0時押閑的收益率的變化值。

avatar
每次赌钱必先看一下
avatar
但是这个帖子感觉没怎么看懂
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4#
我可能太笨了,不太懂,有谁看明白吗?楼主能不能简单一些
avatar
5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
我可能太笨了,不太懂,有谁看明白吗?
avatar
6#
似懂非懂………
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7#
我可能太笨了,不太懂,有谁看明白吗
avatar
双色球的概率是100000000000000000000000000000000分之一中奖,不还是有很多人买吗?所以楼主被老弄这么多虚无缥缈的东西来唬人行不。
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:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory:
:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
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