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[lastpost] => 2778990 贝莱德即将通过澳交所上市扩大比特币ETF业务范围（转） 1762311980 jackcool1011
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[虚拟币交流]
比特币下跌，黄金触顶——但 Uptober 尚未结束（转）
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今年十月已经测试了比特币的[BTC]信徒。在通常被称为“Uptober”的月份过半时，BTC 发现自己处于陌生的境地，遭遇了历史上最糟糕的月中表现之一。. N7 g0 Q5 F# c' I" d% d, B2 Y$ N
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但你看不到的是，比特币收盘上涨的可能性仍然很大，罕见的BTC-黄金图表细节也表明可能已经触底。# [7 R! T O& W7 ]
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Uptober 能否如期实现目标，还是说这将是它的终结？
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开局艰难，但历史看好牛市* i4 z- u+ O8 S% ~
2025 年 10 月已经赢得了比特币十月份表现为有记录以来第二糟糕。对于通常看涨的月份来说，这是一个令人惊讶的转折。
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来源：Alphractal1 R, V8 L6 V5 z8 x6 ~) S' j1 l
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15年来，只有四个10月份收盘下跌。但鉴于比特币最终上涨的可能性高达73%，胜算仍然对比特币有利。8 c5 n) o4 I/ J1 l3 z- F# {
( [' h5 k8 H; C' `尽管开局不稳，但许多人相信本月结束前可能会转为看涨，保持这种势头。- _0 c; I# ^2 H% w( v% P3 E6 l
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事情变得有趣了: g+ ]$ k) C! | q& R7 E
BTC/黄金比率中罕见的信号表明形势可能很快就会发生转变。
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$ e- [, M0 w2 K* T0 D+ D来源：X* U! U/ u1 s& P3 z+ k. R" S
. C% A }9 O% l0 Y; u" v根据最近的数据，该比率已达到迄今为止仅在主要市场底部出现的水平，而这些时刻往往是从黄金转向比特币的最佳时机。- b& x( u$ N9 d+ l7 ~# n9 C
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BTC/黄金震荡指标徘徊在-1.8左右，从历史上看，这与BTC开始跑赢黄金的周期低点相关。# s( {% q7 I3 T- |
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正如 Alphractal 首席执行官 Joao Wedson 所说，该图表“基本上是在大声疾呼”现在是“出售黄金、购买比特币的时候了”。
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* Z' l9 ?# f) I* ~6 x# l1 @随着黄金价格处于高位，而比特币出现触底信号，风险回报方程现在可能更倾向于加密货币，而不是传统的避风港。
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空头在 10.7 万美元附近失去动力! e( _+ s2 b" f w2 X& u
经过几天的持续抛售，截至发稿时，比特币似乎稳定在 107,000 美元左右。2 o% k8 \' ]% K8 T( J$ b
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来源：TradingView
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- j9 m- y' f! G7 ]1 `5 h日线图显示看跌势头减弱，RSI 指标显示 BTC 处于超卖区域。与此同时，MACD 图柱趋于平缓；如果买盘活跃，则可能出现动能逆转。
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然而，BTC 的交易价格仍然低于关键 EMA（20、50、100），整体趋势仍看跌。# O: X4 Z+ k; K+ ]5 \4 w
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突破 110,000 美元的决定性举措可能确认复苏，但在此之前，有点乐观永远不会伤害任何人。
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