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[虚拟币交流]
比特币交易员发出“超买”警告 比特币价格瞄准8.4万美元（转）
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5 W5 B9 s! c# F4 R2 Q" ]5 z/ i 比特币（BTC）在第一季度的最后一个华尔街交易日中有所走高，但比特币价格观点远未确信空头已经失去控制。
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3月31日华尔街开盘时段，比特币价格小幅走高，尽管交易者对短期走势仍持风险规避态度。6 _% n+ O8 e7 B% C4 h( c3 W
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: U0 f' M4 O' P. u2 K 比特币相对强弱指数（RSI）暗示跌势或将延续6 G Y6 i3 l' ?* `: S4 N
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Cointelegraph Markets Pro与TradingView数据显示，Bitstamp交易所BTC/USD交易对当日上涨1.5%，最高触及8.3914万美元。" M0 c3 t3 [2 p( ?& k
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尽管美股开盘走低，但在季度收盘前的最后几小时，比特币仍迎来期待已久的反弹。
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市场动能持续受4月2日即将生效的美国新关税政策影响，黄金在创下3128美元/盎司历史新高后亦出现回落。- I1 o, ~7 t+ S1 T7 z3 n0 Z
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6 G" i& K t$ M& V/ _ 针对比特币价格走势，多数市场参与者仍持谨慎态度。
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( F( z$ X4 D+ ] 知名交易员Roman在最新X平台分析中针对4小时BTC/USD图表指出：“正在重新测试我们关注的关键84，000美元区域”。他在引用相对强弱指数（RSI）时预测，
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' c7 ]+ t8 W) m0 B价格或将回落至更接近80，000美元关口的水平。/ i% V0 c- Y) s
5 K* K+ Z% d8 ?! `6 Y “从短期框架（LTF）看，随着下行突破和看跌回测完成，我认为价格将开始走低，”Roman补充道，“同时RSI正在回测50中轴，而随机指标已显示超买。更高时间' Q0 v ^/ j+ |
( T, a2 _) T9 k3 `& e6 ]! @框架（HTF）同样呈现看跌倾向。”
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) i, a9 y; P1 q% I0 ? R+ |2 ^ 知名交易分析师Rekt Capital进一步解读RSI信号，指出比特币在突破数月下降趋势线后，正在日线级别回测支撑位。# ~% X* `. \2 e( n1 T* ~* ?) }
$ R. @' E3 O7 R# G3 k “$BTC的RSI正试图将下降趋势线转化为支撑位，同时价格走势也面临下降趋势压力，”他向X平台粉丝总结道，“若RSI能成功守住趋势线支撑．．．将显示市场正在
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( X" \8 Z7 \, @/ N) P积蓄动能，价格有望突破现行下降通道。”1 H/ ]& _* _9 G1 W1 p' T
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早前Cointelegraph报道指出，多项比特币价格指标共同勾勒出当前牛市阶段的疲软态势，暗示回调行情或将延续。
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与此同时，各预测平台给出的BTC目标价位已下探至6.5万美元，部分模型甚至显示更低预期。. Z( H: O, U! f4 B1 s7 w
7 c1 t7 V4 ?7 S% U! e- S4 S 比特币价格分析显现与2024年末相似走势
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* C, `: U# a/ B8 V 当前3月及第一季度的整体表现均未达市场预期。
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监测平台CoinGlass数据显示，在缺乏上行催化剂的背景下，截至发稿时BTC/USD年内累计下跌10.8%，3月单月跌幅达1.1%。
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4 a) p# ?1 P! R. P 该报告特别强调了比特币与美股日益增强的关联性：“尽管市场动荡，但近几周价格走势已在7.8万至8.8万美元区间形成整理格局。值得注意的是，
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3 \$ _! c) v( C3 m市场恐慌性抛售迹象正在缓解——反应性卖盘减少，而长期持有者已重启积累模式。”
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