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[lastpost] => 2791570 二层代币表现优异,但这种优势能持续下去吗?(转) 1766441725 sunnyclare001
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1. 宏观因素影响市场走势
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( e7 ?+ a) S5 r' q过去一周市场涨跌主要受宏观经济数据影响,包括美国未来的降息预期、上周的非农数据和失业率,以及本周即将公布的PPI与CPI数据。; _9 F3 o h/ C \
) `" Y; v0 k( }0 _PPI助推反弹:昨晚公布的PPI数据低于市场预期,被认为是近期少见的利好消息。PPI同比上涨3.3%(预期3.5%),核心PPI同比上涨3.5%(预期3.8%),这让市场信心得到了一定恢复。2 O+ y0 R. \, l0 F. y' c2 I
0 B0 f+ t5 K- T' l' D6 HCPI才是关键:今晚的CPI数据更为重要,市场预期CPI同比为2.9%(前值2.7%),核心CPI预期为3.3%。如果数据能保持在预期或持平的水平,大饼(比特币)可能重回10万美元上方,并延续市场的炒作行情。# h6 B) |. C' n* X( C, b# I
+ S5 F* T: L* K7 X% {& P6 `
2. 比特币市场现状与未来预期& B/ o# S1 k# B O; ~
# C" ~( \$ n: H0 ^* c+ m当前持仓成本:
2 a' t2 w. B% H# L& p2 ^! d& y+ _: F$ {
机构的平均持仓成本在8.1万美元左右;
$ r H& i4 o3 S# g _, S3 |# ~3 ? C$ Y& ?4 I1 `/ @- ], f/ j
微策略因早期进场,平均成本约为6.2万美元;3 s7 P8 v7 A) K7 G1 n; J" b/ k
8 |1 U4 Q& m8 Q: j! G9 O `( I
ETF持仓成本约在7万美元上下。 a( V( g2 t0 y" l
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比特币价值回归:7 z/ R5 ?- ]# B
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市场大部分散户的低价筹码已经交割完毕,当前持币主力成本价在6-8万美元区间。) L$ Y7 V) `, _: f0 f8 \5 J
5 x, r7 _# r9 U3 A+ G* O B% H% f
随着更多公司和国家效仿萨尔瓦多将比特币纳入战略储备,比特币的流通将越来越少,机构预测其价格有望达到15万甚至20万美元。
) K* _; w; N) N5 d# ~, M) G" W1 v7 m! [' j& f( |; B; P' l; s( s
加密资产的国家效应:萨尔瓦多因比特币政策而成为中美洲金融科技中心,吸引了像Tether这样的大型加密公司入驻。
: k# X1 `6 e. X/ K$ B) e' y8 P) a& }8 h B
3. 市场热点与反弹情况
$ d5 u$ a: O% d5 P2 @) C- i& M& c3 A9 O! X
ETH:
$ w% e+ L& A6 ]: b" d
2 I5 Q4 c0 f: Z. D虽然受到大量抛售的质疑,但以太坊价格总体稳定,汇率回升至0.033。( I1 X/ m% j9 o. v8 ~- i! ?* X
: Q( u/ C/ N8 d$ W" M0 y ^
机构普遍认为以太坊本轮高点或达到1万美元。. ?/ P+ z" [1 e- }+ N" R5 F
3 J' T2 e7 V# p6 t3 ?BTC:" g9 y& r2 z! ~
1 Q. W9 r, A( @3 B尽管ETF持续外流且贝莱德带头抛售,比特币依然维持强势。( U1 r, x6 ?8 j j+ J
% a: Y! i. O" o2 x
如果今晚CPI数据利好,突破10万美元可能性极大。
9 K n, f$ n" W1 A* |9 A- L$ q
# h s6 h9 W2 ^4 w5 `. a% ISOL与XRP:
4 G: K1 Y/ X+ x1 W9 [
6 e" H! P7 K1 z/ s& XSOL走势强劲,被认为是AI生态的主导者。摩根大通预计SOL与XRP的ETF即将推出,或吸引150亿美元资金入场。
& u3 z! `9 Q/ q/ N+ I5 U& H* n+ e+ ]/ M
XRP走势超强,多次占据韩所榜首,有市场声音预测其价格达到10美元、市值超越以太坊。
7 U, B8 \$ J A' S5 G, {
' f4 t: r& J, @/ r$ Q, v其他热点项目:
. z6 }- F; ]0 p3 i/ X0 w9 _! _; k `0 U# F8 R( @: W n! O
涉及ETF或政策的项目如$hbar、$algo、$ada等走势同样强劲。9 ?* J. d+ g3 w% t4 b$ a4 B# s
% k9 D' T% y5 F3 o山寨市场近期普遍上涨,市场预计Q1可能迎来牛市爆发。
?$ S* [6 A8 w; H9 M1 y' s r3 l$ i
4. AI赛道与新兴项目& q# t! {' U# i1 k4 ]0 g
& G5 r- J9 o& Y1 L" _9 h) }
AI领域表现突出,板块总市值达160亿美元,近期涨幅明显。& b0 o+ O+ \& u: E8 ^: J
7 N) k8 T$ h/ S8 R# [蓝筹项目:如$ai16z、$virtual和$aixbt等市值迅速攀升,部分实现翻倍增长。. i% i- B: X% U6 A# `, R; |
1 r% M1 W( E7 S c3 _
新兴项目:正经团队推出的AI项目表现稳健,例如$mates和$sora已获得市场认可。
% J& V2 m4 f6 F" Q& M6 E- h* s7 k4 q5 h) |5 l+ N6 y
市场展望
8 O! A1 `8 w! I/ {: ^& E" J2 o
随着宏观经济环境和政策明朗,加密市场有望迎来更多利好。山寨牛市或在第一季度爆发,AI、主流币、以及新兴应用赛道将继续成为市场焦点。6 E% {. J" t, l* }, H
' ]. g, Z( E" M% }
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