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大小球盘本质上就是与全场入球总数相关的盘口,计算它的依据就是进球数的概率。
6 w. y, \% ^9 h, z# t' K我们先引入下列符号:; ]$ {, \9 M3 y' u: ]6 C- p
Pn(n=0;1;……;x)表示在一场比赛中可能出现的各个进球数的概率。
, G+ {6 i& e9 V1 k即:P0=全场进0球的概率;P1=全场进1球的概率;……。" _ c3 L, p% k% s1 c
那么 ∑Pn=P0+P1+P2+……+Px=100%。& l& l( z- l! [% Z+ j
Bo表示大球的投注总数,D表示投注大球的回报总数额,O(Over)表示大球的赔率。! [5 s. ~# {0 _8 P
Bu表示小球的投注总数,X表示投注小球的回报总数额,U(Under) 表示小球的赔率。0 D. b6 t; P/ P. @
1 U" r- B/ ]+ M! ], ]在一场比赛中,我们以G表示大小球的盘口(G为任意数);K表示全场入球总数的结果。
/ ~3 o2 Q' B, x; F# C在任意盘口G下,全场比赛会出现如下3个结果:
5 K) g j' [* m) T3 J4 Q/ a1:K>G 即出现我们通常所说的大球。
+ L( G3 `# Y% ~7 d; Z5 k% P' @. H2:K=G 即出现我们通常所说的走盘。8 W* z9 ?- j3 a. I$ I; s: z0 V
3:K<G 即出现我们通常所说的小球。# ~3 p( P% z- i
$ F. S- g) X+ B那么在此盘口下投注大球的回报总数额为:
* [; @- w4 ]3 tD1:(K>G)={Bo* O 即赢盘获得与此盘口相对应赔率的回报。/ E2 ~) p' x8 m* F b/ G
D2:(K=G)={Bo 即走盘退回本金。
2 J* I' @, l( r6 O- z ^D3:(K<G)={0 即输盘失去本金。0 s7 N/ A( I# ` z8 L- q7 ]% _
: K- l+ m; `) C" O" c+ ?, k% G同理在此盘口下投注小球的回报总数额为:
, e z4 J2 i1 l! d! ^X1:(K>G)={0 即输盘失去本金。! _ u" g2 W7 y
X2:(K=G)={Bu 即走盘退回本金。6 b6 s6 f: s' c5 T3 S
X3:(K<G)={Bu*U 即赢盘获得与此盘口相对应赔率的回报。
1 x7 O0 c" e8 |- o' b$ }4 s1 l, |1 N0 m- Q* s0 G4 Q& o0 K
下面分别描述大小球盘为2.5球;2.5/3球;3球;3/3.5球时的大小球盘赔率计算方法,其余盘口可以由此类推。
( ?0 Q3 \& y! q1 v1 T! k* ^# b' {1 ^6 \
1:大小球盘为2.5球(G=2.5)
' x3 Y5 j- d! [) E) v# @$ p, b; k5 z9 I% |9 e y/ E& ~5 g e
在大小球盘为2.5球时,投注大球的回报总数额为:
4 a y& T- H' b# [) XK=0 D0=0 ! D+ h1 K. Y2 Q5 X% [* E8 h
K=1 D1=0
- k, O- J& [- \. j p+ [! K. sK=2 D2=08 L, h' x# P( O
K=3;4;....x D3+= {Bo* O
8 e2 g# {& g b l) ~' c" I3 [
投注大球的期望回报总数为:∑D=Bo* O*(∑Pn-P0-P1-P2)=Bo* O*(1-P0-P1-P2): n" r% S: `1 a& t6 G/ J
在公平条件下,我们可以认为实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等。' ^# ~/ E" W4 \( T! Y) a
∑D=Bo* O*(1-P0-P1-P2)=Bo6 z# P8 b2 g" C2 [
O*(1-P0-P1-P2)=1
/ D# w3 L9 U/ b! s: u5 d6 r 在此盘口下,大球的赔率为 O=1/(1-P0-P1-P2)3 n6 R3 P! q& X8 W. i, k' B! {
或者表述为 O=1/∑Pn----------(这里n=3;4;……x)4 [" W1 f/ ^- k$ k
L9 O# O9 l( e4 k- Z4 }& c
在大小球盘为2.5球时,投注小球的回报总数额为:4 x# T t' M. i. ?/ G+ O9 ]) r; T
K=0 X0=Bu*U 2 p+ `) N4 _/ }9 U3 w9 T& I
K=1 X1=Bu*U
; C- U) P3 j* S; jK=2 X2=Bu*U 7 |' K) s# ^" W3 O! I
K=3;4;....x X3+=0' Q, \4 E. W; G" L
0 Q F: D$ `5 O# K7 P% A
投注小球的期望回报总数为:∑X=P0*Bu*U+P1*Bu*U+P2*Bu*U8 I5 v/ c& R0 v4 P# }" N+ h
在公平条件下,我们可以认为实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等。- d- l7 T( i# }* Z% m. u, d; ?
∑X=P0*Bu*U+P1*Bu*U+P2*Bu*U=Bu1 e' }9 [7 |4 b4 G
U*(P0+P1+P2)=1) o m; | o% r# S4 T7 Q- q( F6 H
在此盘口下,小球的赔率为 U=1/(P0+P1+P2): j1 e# |5 m. I! y
3 Q$ N; d) `8 q5 q
2:大小球盘为3球(G=3)! h7 f' }+ c5 ~ h0 e
2 ~9 K9 J! ?3 p9 z' e7 j在大小球盘为3球时,投注大球的回报总数额为:: J" S. b3 U1 i: c2 R i
K=0 D0=0 * {1 B" m7 Z' Y
K=1 D1=0 % V: e; |, L" F; C
K=2 D2=0
4 P7 G) ~" m$ x8 x9 d) ]' w: JK=3; D3= Bo
1 f6 {9 K& |) d. ?K=4;5;....x D4+= {Bo* O $ ?. F8 y2 E$ e, N* }! E- [
' S0 n8 {: X" ^9 s9 _
投注大球的期望回报总数为:$ X- S) Y7 F x( n w/ p
∑D=P3* Bo +Bo* O*(∑Pn-P0-P1-P2-P3)= P3* Bo +Bo* O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)" c5 t1 y( R2 ]2 D6 {) u; w W
在公平条件下,我们可以认为实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等。
1 @) k7 l: o& s" T ∑D=P3* Bo +Bo* O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)=Bo# E9 N' k$ I0 t6 `
P3+ O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)=1+ y! W4 r4 m% d& ~
在此盘口下,大球的赔率为 O=(1-P3)/(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)
# p. R1 O9 _$ b9 l( T9 P P! W7 T 或者表述为 O=(1-P3)/∑Pn----------(这里n=4;5;……x)
) j7 p/ L: S: L: p( @
6 Q% a5 G1 d2 {* c/ {5 [在大小球盘为3球时,投注小球的回报总数额为:* s2 f% D$ T0 B& ? ]# ~+ F
K=0 X0=Bu*U 9 t& D$ A5 Z7 W. _* g! p: v
K=1 X1=Bu*U
6 j0 s/ G* Y, ?' RK=2 X2=Bu*U
. Q% ?. Z5 o) Y2 uK=3 X3= Bu3 u& j- k s. a1 e m4 r& _, l/ @
J=4;5;....x X4+=0( `, v9 d3 m) C
9 m C8 D) L, `8 u投注小球的期望回报总数为:∑X=P0*Bu*U+P1*Bu*U+P2*Bu*U+P3* Bu
. w& t# P$ p0 F5 L+ P! H2 s0 j在公平条件下,我们可以认为实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等。
; p6 w5 g6 H0 e6 h1 t2 K( a ∑X=P0*Bu*U+P1*Bu*U+P2*Bu*U+P3* Bu =Bu* R9 Q6 n* s* T2 a* h9 u1 J5 E" r
U*(P0+P1+P2)+P3=1& `) ?1 y2 `, R- J' a5 b A! R ~) x) V
在此盘口下,小球的赔率为 U=(1-P3)/(P0+P1+P2)( s$ i4 J/ x. k! u
3 B& j! L4 M5 ?$ N$ o
3:大小球盘为2.5/3球(G=2.5/3)
# v0 ] Z: S9 g! J( c' v. P
! y' v% N1 d/ Y* S5 U在大小球盘为2.5/3球时,投注大球的回报总数额为:
2 T9 [) e0 s5 o- V+ N9 sK=0 D0=0
6 E- V! \: f% ~0 g+ lK=1 D1=0 # ], i$ j6 l/ g( @! l( m- n- n0 D
K=2 D2=0
- g7 w! V5 ^3 |- qK=3; D3= Bo/2+ O*Bo/2(即投注额的1/2在3球盘走盘; 投注额的1/2在2.5球盘赢盘)6 ^ J2 H, d: ~8 |, r- \
K=4;5;....x D4+= {Bo* O - _0 h; T. b0 l# G2 X" j$ _
) R# Q3 ?- e3 C
投注大球的期望回报总数为:
; z* x& K, u9 g2 ]& G ∑D=P3* Bo/2 +P3* O*Bo/2+Bo* O*(∑Pn-P0-P1-P2-P3)3 z" x6 ` U1 {2 |+ E/ ~+ I
= P3* Bo/2 +P3* O* Bo/2+Bo* O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)+ @" x6 N6 z( I }! m& r
在公平条件下,我们可以认为实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等。, G! ?+ g2 M# I$ m8 ]$ c( Q
∑D=P3* Bo/2 +P3* O* Bo/2+Bo* O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)=Bo
' ?- } @2 p) Q: u P3/2+ O* P3/2+O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)=1( N2 }, w- o8 E" o* v* G& K$ Q
O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3+ P3/2)=1- P3/2
# F9 |$ M. a0 N4 @) F 在此盘口下,大球的赔率为 O=(1-P3/2)/(1-P0-P1-P2-P3/2)
7 I& ?( a' |. ~. R8 m4 B# @; @# @. V6 l* K' g& b0 L2 X1 K
在大小球盘为2.5/3球时,投注小球的回报总数额为:- i- U% k" W6 m% k& T& b
K=0 X0=Bu*U
8 k( i7 ^' T: P3 e+ e8 j, { OK=1 X1=Bu*U . |" _' s. @1 W2 P
K=2 X2=Bu*U
4 h( H9 c+ j) j% xK=3 X3= Bu/2(即投注额的1/2在3球盘走盘; 投注额的1/2在2.5球盘输盘)
4 J; ^- c B$ t" }+ H9 f0 s/ O9 K4 O: TJ=4;5;....x X4+=05 i1 z% s" L- \( x4 r
& K& Z- e" S4 v; P+ }: c+ S投注小球的期望回报总数为:∑X=P0*Bu*U+P1*Bu*U+P2*Bu*U+P3* Bu/2
) \8 K0 s1 q8 E q. Y在公平条件下,我们可以认为实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等。; @ {7 P: O) c$ c3 Y$ I2 q7 J8 Q
∑X=P0*Bu*U+P1*Bu*U+P2*Bu*U+P3* Bu/2 =Bu9 g' C% r7 \; K4 l* a
U*(P0+P1+P2)+P3/2=1: O' O. J6 C3 `/ z$ R: h) _
在此盘口下,小球的赔率为 U=(1-P3/2)/(P0+P1+P2)- l) k/ F" a% A0 v' s, W
7 t$ ~7 p3 b! N8 O8 z
4:大小球盘为3/3.5球(G=3/3.5)
9 H- ~ h8 y7 F' u
, e+ f2 l) U9 c$ w在大小球盘为3/3.5球时,投注大球的回报总数额为:1 y4 H s+ M# U6 \9 {5 H/ g
K=0 D0=0
: x$ m( x* z) V/ ?2 gK=1 D1=0 ) o) B! ~/ ]7 [0 ~
K=2 D2=00 F8 D, @2 z0 _# w
K=3; D3= Bo/2(即投注额的1/2在3球盘走盘; 投注额的1/2在3.5球盘输盘)
. U( @; h8 S& Y' v' j4 i. c2 [K=4;5;....x D4+= {Bo* O
7 C/ D% B' v9 r9 m1 }- i9 a o2 k" |; U) ?) Z+ |4 O# m
投注大球的期望回报总数为:6 B+ |- K+ g: N% R
∑D=P3* Bo/2 + Bo* O*(∑Pn-P0-P1-P2-P3)
( S/ o- R7 P: c* [0 \ = P3* Bo/2 + Bo* O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)5 g9 K8 s6 d0 b6 {/ K! \4 R
在公平条件下,我们可以认为实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等。
( t9 y* A. x0 h7 U0 x1 O# P2 ] ∑D=P3* Bo/2 + Bo* O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)=Bo: n. x5 s, z( b6 `
P3/2+ O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)=1" C3 K" i4 j$ v- f" O% Q' G
O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)=1- P3/2+ A u. O5 a6 X3 [
在此盘口下,大球的赔率为 O=(1-P3/2)/(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)6 C' \% {7 K" i$ B( [' p$ y
或者表述为 O=(1-P3/2)/∑Pn----------(这里n=4;5;……x)2 r; _* R( M) s5 J& [- |0 |
# ]' X( V. ]7 i: T9 D
在大小球盘为3/3.5球时,投注小球的回报总数额为:% o! y; [! V& f6 U. a2 @
K=0 X0=Bu*U
7 z5 c* W- m. k$ ?7 I6 z6 k" ^K=1 X1=Bu*U + u0 o4 U( w. W. g
K=2 X2=Bu*U 3 y2 b2 h' @3 o0 p3 _: v( s
K=3 X3= Bu/2+U* Bu/2(即投注额的1/2在3球盘走盘; 投注额的1/2在3.5球盘赢盘)
6 [$ ^+ l# a% y7 x+ c7 Z. [1 VJ=4;5;....x X4+=0
" h$ I; t' z/ f- F l5 `3 L. N" h2 g" W& o
投注小球的期望回报总数为:
* \. N! |; K( v0 U/ A: j1 r4 s ∑X=P0*Bu*U+P1*Bu*U+P2*Bu*U+P3* Bu/2+ P3*U* Bu/2
/ N) Q. X! H1 D0 X4 L' j在公平条件下,我们可以认为实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等。" j, Q, _) [, W" G! X4 m& S
∑X=P0*Bu*U+P1*Bu*U+P2*Bu*U+P3* Bu/2+ P3*U* Bu/2 =Bu
3 @" T+ ~% u6 E U*(P0+P1+P2+ P3/2)+P3/2=1
- m- A5 d; z/ j; t3 v' c" k 在此盘口下,小球的赔率为 U=(1-P3/2)/(P0+P1+P2+P3/2)
8 ^/ c T D& P [9 w& e
8 k L- |/ n# k
" Q2 s; d1 S2 R" [# O! G/ d" q! _2 k0 Y一场足球比赛就是以主,客进球数最终是多少来体现其结果的.
( g; n0 @4 z [8 }( O大部分博项的赔率都可以通过进球概率这个基本数据实现互相转换!+ F; p: X, m/ [ A
1 @. O6 J. L8 i3 \0 W) EP0 P1 P2 P3 P41可以由统计函数生成,也可以由开盘赔率计算得出,比如用波胆赔率计算。(这种方法计算出的Pn值有一定的偏差) |
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