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本帖最后由 陆安梦 于 2017-12-20 14:29 编辑
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$ r# {& N" x; _% Y/ |) A. m其实原文标题不是这样的 F9 r4 \% \7 z0 P5 w( w: S
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这是我看完的心得所下的 说真的很实用 因昨天我玩了40分钟的捕鱼机深深有感!!!" N, j1 G$ f0 h8 n
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有一天，一个专业的赌徒遇到了上帝..." c- }& D$ X) x) y5 O) y! F( c
他希望能和上帝来场赌局。3 a3 I4 _0 }1 L$ R
9 b! D$ W W/ Q' h 「我有无限多的金钱。」上帝说着。' H. L& O0 N6 e: }
. |8 ?$ U6 B7 _) D' G. D 「无论多久我都能和您赌下去，您可以带走所有您赢到的金钱。」 \' |4 S1 \2 S. q v& X4 f4 B
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「我只有一个要求，我们赌掷铜板，由您选择正反面。」 「选对了便可以从我这拿走一枚金币，反之我要拿走您一枚金币。」 0 H2 \5 g" w9 z8 K
「如同人生一样，您的人生，您自己选择。」 U. `7 M* u Z* K$ W) k+ B
! a' `- M* T0 ~" o8 M& f1 l 上帝笑着说完，便把铜板交给赌徒。
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9 J( R2 ^! Q( m/ M- B8 r. i/ i接过铜板，赌徒凭着过往的经验，便立即察觉 铜板反面的重量比正面稍重，
8 S9 O6 f5 t+ d8 D因此铜板较容易出现正面。
6 m/ T+ X( v0 J长期而言，正面出现的次数会高于反面，较有长期优势。 ) P+ _- a5 `- X: z0 v
因此，赌徒二话不说，掏出身上20枚金币，心中暗自窃喜。
) I* P8 v/ }& k" \心想赢定了。
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& W' P. q$ n: h0 T- w- q没想到开始不到半刻钟，
% w' g6 h3 A+ \( ?/ l5 p赌徒已经把20枚金币便已经输个精光。 「应该只是运气不好吧！」
. k6 m4 c# e4 h0 V* ~! {( a, G $ I; @1 _" F3 R% i, s
赌徒不甘心，又带了100枚金币来比试，4 W/ i/ E- l1 L8 t5 j; o" R L9 p
但过了一整天后却仍输个精光。
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赌徒百思不得其解，他明明已经占尽优势，为何还会失败?
: c/ F, V$ x0 a" p他恳请上帝告诉他原因。 # a t$ V& ~' A
上帝回答道：! |7 W; L" ~: q2 A
「我会赢，只是因为我有 无限的资本。」
- |: B$ |+ t* D0 P8 G- F「因此，如果时间够长，输光所有的钱会先发生在您身上。」
, ?; w# d$ x1 p8 n* a8 c) M' t「而不是先发生在我身上。」
% ]' o( {$ n4 d0 B% }
/ J) L* \+ q: U n 赌徒恍然大悟，
* O' A9 |- `5 o ?% u原来他穷极一生 追求技巧，寻找赌局中的些微优势，9 e) ~' V% I! m, u* J
竟然没有准备 充足的资金来得重要！# {2 r) g1 Z+ ~# ]3 Z' K. G% J3 k
「因此，如果您身上带的是一万枚金币，那赢的想必就会是您了。」5 A4 w, H) u5 V* e6 B2 ?: D
上帝说完便不见踪影。 1 F2 \; M, T8 t7 I1 G/ c- r
一旦赌局无法再继续下去，拥有再大的优势也没有意义 一枚较容易出现正面的铜板，: }9 g* B, o8 \% Z! z
若掷铜板1000次，最后结果可能是正面出现550次，反面出现450次， ^/ A3 g$ m# O2 q& _0 W* r
1000次下来，赌徒可以赚到100枚金币，# n* b- p2 w& a* e
对赌徒十分有利。
: ^4 v& i7 z7 a( A$ {# w : H% y6 r* R9 U# Q. [$ X5 j0 T
但要是450次的反面，在一开始就 连续的出现，
0 Z; `! j0 H" W6 N2 S P5 I在还没掷到1000次之前，# ?. m/ x% b; ^4 W5 {: L& q
仅有100枚金币的赌徒便会先破产。
. {4 [; r" {, K7 |: |
: S" ]" U" {) c) X1 G( b 赌徒拥有运气与勇气，但却没有充足的资本实现获利。
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事实上，当资本不足时，即使有任何长期优势都难以发挥。' B% p! [; G* H! ]- `$ T
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市场就像是个金钱无限的上帝，投资就如同和上帝赌掷铜板，
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永远必须准备足够的资本，才有可能真正实现长期的获利喔！ 6 H% @# ^/ ?; E7 e& O6 O! e
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