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[体育菠菜心得方法] 《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘9 q; B- E' s$ |0 C  i+ S" \
     ( P9 v* U/ h2 N9 S# g
     平手中水,主队有利6 v; {2 F. t) B( y- j
     在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。
2 V' K# b4 H! b$ b/ X: K( F$ L     09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:
: V$ K. Y" \: B2 A$ r+ a) Q     英超主队
) i; G# S3 a5 e& x+ w     胜:13场 48%! C3 Q) k, S9 O5 N8 D0 w0 M0 q6 v
     平:5场 17%4 J2 B: I% |  V$ H+ v. `
     负:9场 35%1 o% M: S& N/ w  f
     通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。8 g+ w) u9 D! J; U* g5 ?  ?' m
     7 d9 u0 I1 g2 Y- j- E
     一、初盘阶段
: J3 v6 `! P! W     具体到水位如下:
' L* R# h- m) |' X     初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负
" m) |2 |0 o( o     初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负# q. b$ |! M5 V1 Z
     初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负
/ U: U; J" ]; C4 K3 O3 h$ R& v( C     5 A! @* d" N4 H
     分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。6 Y  n+ X: {0 O  ?
     初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。
% J" W3 j/ }  q# E9 U& P     初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。2 Y+ o% y3 ]0 Y
     % s; `: I  x% a! j8 H+ g  ?
     二、临场阶段
) J; r1 }  H+ U     " w$ [1 }' f. l2 E
     具体到变盘和水位如下:, h$ i: d2 }% `. U9 z, p, E3 R8 ?$ J
     临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负
( w' H3 s3 A; L* s  |2 C     临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负1 X, _" Q" Y/ ]( u' `  @
     
+ b) x4 P  Y# L0 @6 Q; }     临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。
9 b0 ]! C8 i' z: q4 P# t8 Q3 z     临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:
9 P8 w# Z* b5 r. ~3 g8 a$ a     
. u7 e0 [! w0 ?; D3 _0 m; j     朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿& X, X3 Q- L3 d9 F) P
     初盘:0.82平手1.04. p% J8 _4 z$ R% A* r2 T  _# Y# D- z
     终盘:1.01平手/半球0.85
, [5 F, j7 q$ f     
9 |( a: |" V; `  `+ n* D% D+ _4 n     朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆3 C+ d! N3 S& N
     初盘:0.76平手1.10
, a/ \) E- G4 X/ }  X5 p) z2 ?- }     终盘:0.95平手/半球0.918 {. ~6 K: l  l- Q; p6 B
     4 g- ~) _- i% B4 s2 _, G" N5 m5 e1 t
     朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技
* D* y2 m0 K. t! r1 L0 @     初盘:0.82平手1.04. U5 A% I$ r; D; r3 b3 P& i8 F  i
     终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98
; U1 E  u' B0 U- W" e) c  }8 Y     ( T, Q2 ~' E( V* z
     伯恩利2-1西汉姆; P. h  b* @/ r6 t  ^
     初盘:0.88平手0.98
( E' Z% j/ D; C' z+ y- t6 x     终盘:1.12平/半0.74
) U" p/ N6 K7 S     我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。
  a# j% P& b+ n- O4 h  v3 j: v) G     提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。
3 N! k  l8 g$ t5 z     提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。
8 _0 s0 E2 l$ C# }8 F( H' k     
# v2 _% \, U7 g5 _' \( M$ p. K# [     三、球队表现
5 f8 l$ }8 A/ s( k     
+ i9 J8 K+ H' i3 d: k     结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。: u, h8 C# X4 i+ \
     8 ]* G3 y6 b+ u( t9 I: r; Z8 q/ j
     四、投注要点+ @" A# b0 Q/ ^! r: _- Y; j
     要点1:平手中水、主多不败7 C6 z5 O  n  e: r) m5 U( u
     要点2:平手降盘、走两头, b2 j2 G* ]! D+ ]! }& H: v
     要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败. Q( x, A) ^9 t2 Q3 _
     要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大  m# ?5 O" a% {6 c$ _$ v/ J. c
     要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任
; |( V( _  ]+ a7 W0 m& y     要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大. T# |! H1 e1 U0 r# l" }
     要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛
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新人来学习下,谢谢楼主。
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谢谢楼主的心得分享!
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