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[体育菠菜心得方法]
《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘
: W$ J0 }" Z+ q; }3 S- Z/ f
& E2 F5 {8 h' ~1 b 平手中水,主队有利# l3 h6 P3 g- {' v7 q8 _: n$ o
在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。" w7 A' D3 s$ I, ]) ~/ K, X' E7 q q
09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:4 I1 H6 A7 k2 e' u7 l2 d6 ^$ U! k
英超主队. j) Z/ _1 j6 r" H2 C/ m
胜:13场 48%
, T* l; O- K. L! G4 X: l' v: m 平:5场 17%
& R% q* y) G3 a9 u 负:9场 35%
- Q8 O, e: j/ l1 @! s" o 通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。9 W8 @# ^6 {1 h# O/ K" @6 s
& G! ? U4 Q3 v5 x4 c 一、初盘阶段
, k% w) j# b/ N ? 具体到水位如下:
$ H* Z5 z4 n4 P; E% L 初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负
4 }. F& _( ]" G3 H8 q8 h 初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负2 j# q9 B6 l F+ W! P6 a
初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负
. z! G" Y) q( I5 a+ A: V4 |- {8 P
# O# s$ }( ~- v 分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。 R ^% f' o5 P, U3 y
初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。
8 d1 Q) V7 e. ] 初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。
2 D$ E8 ~' Z! N p0 {3 k 7 @( i8 ~2 h& o) S) o m
二、临场阶段
" Q7 D, T) k& g7 c1 Q2 D# E $ { ?' u0 Q }( j3 U( n$ [/ _
具体到变盘和水位如下:
6 Y4 ?* h# A& ~ q4 B0 Q 临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负. w, J+ a2 S# O% q8 G$ M9 q! t- F
临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负
- f4 q0 G% w; L8 t6 x0 M$ [
$ l* S* N/ K, d: O) k4 W, O 临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。
1 I8 G" j/ H, l$ l/ B/ t 临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:1 x4 N! F0 x) u% C: f
' [; M K5 ]+ Q# i 朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿' W) [: _% n; ~1 f M4 ] e- d
初盘:0.82平手1.04$ F( V) }6 j. s0 N
终盘:1.01平手/半球0.85
4 U) Y' H+ E9 i
% d7 d+ N9 C9 j 朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆
, B3 K9 f! n: H' R; F. \. g V 初盘:0.76平手1.10
( o5 q( s7 s1 O1 `3 a- z t 终盘:0.95平手/半球0.913 `0 p& p. v+ O4 d$ j
1 ~1 H* [% N0 Y' V/ d/ [/ x
朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技
) {$ T/ D' H6 E4 v 初盘:0.82平手1.04& e( l+ Q0 n$ i% P
终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98
) L% y2 G X; d2 M( k0 Q ; Z, [3 K& F. H5 @( Q4 i' ~: e
伯恩利2-1西汉姆) N0 i' B/ E- H4 o
初盘:0.88平手0.98
$ a9 ~8 a H1 }6 B1 l @ 终盘:1.12平/半0.74" [ K% c# _2 y6 k5 Z5 F% y
我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。
, x/ b9 z# F* c/ E6 p3 B 提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。
* p( J! ^) N$ I" Z6 f- {" ~ 提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。7 ~1 k0 m% q7 @/ \
# W: J9 G' j& B3 h+ d
三、球队表现6 Z& K0 J- ^1 c+ y( P
; v# E2 S9 e- Z& m+ g/ T
结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。& K! g+ K4 g4 b/ H
& e& n. ~+ ^) H; H 四、投注要点
: f$ _/ A( c7 M( `) ~3 z- m# r9 N 要点1:平手中水、主多不败0 U; @0 O& V. F. E+ t2 a* D
要点2:平手降盘、走两头 ?( @0 w2 ^6 _
要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败: j* @1 E) M0 X, H6 I
要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大, I+ Y" I! q' Z7 N. ~6 ~
要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任' `5 V& B2 x2 `9 d& D$ S' B
要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大
; G, ^' Q0 }( b! e# y' q4 @8 f# F 要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛 |
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