×
Array
(
[fid] => 6728
[description] => 理论知识,玩法技巧,专业术语解释,迈向体育菠菜高手的摇篮!
[password] =>
[icon] => 7c/common_6728_icon.png
[redirect] =>
[attachextensions] =>
[creditspolicy] => Array
(
[digest] => Array
(
[usecustom] => 1
[cycletype] => 0
[cycletime] => 0
[rewardnum] => 1
[extcredits1] => 0
[extcredits2] => 0
[extcredits3] => 0
[extcredits4] => 0
[extcredits5] => 0
[extcredits6] => 0
[extcredits7] => 0
[extcredits8] => 0
[rid] => 3
[fid] => 6728
[rulename] => 加精华
[action] => digest
[fids] => 6966,6903,6944,6958,6929,6874,6894,6896,6885,6857,6868,555,6783,6799,6845,6895,6817,1111,6873,6870,6821,6951,6879,6876,6948,6904,6950,6956,6862,6886,6957,6779,6907,6855,6945,6952,6954,6955,6959,6914,6965,6971,6972,6960,6953,6942,6910,6949,6962,6963,6964,6927,6926,6973,6728
)
[post] => Array
(
[usecustom] => 1
[cycletype] => 1
[cycletime] => 0
[rewardnum] => 5
[extcredits1] => 0
[extcredits2] => 0
[extcredits3] => 0
[extcredits4] => 0
[extcredits6] => 0
[extcredits5] => 0
[extcredits7] => 0
[extcredits8] => 0
[rid] => 1
[fid] => 6728
[rulename] => 发表主题
[action] => post
[fids] => 32,52,67,447,1120,1151,1156,6750,6762,6763,6766,6769,6772,6773,6787,6796,6808,6809,6810,6813,6814,6820,6829,6830,6846,6856,6864,6865,6827,6930,6931,6776,6858,6880,6764,6932,6871,6758,6905,1116,6788,6812,6798,6736,6759,6842,6966,6767,6828,6924,6935,6936,6938,6940,6941,6826,6909,6803,6919,6911,6908,6881,6920,6912,6913,6921,6925,6922,6789,6818,6819,6872,6928,6866,6969,6891,6889,6888,6917,6939,6947,6961,6824,6815,6937,6943,6970,6869,1121,6934,6903,6974,6944,6958,6929,6874,6894,6765,6896,6885,6857,6868,1113,6778,56,6844,6878,6802,6933,6811,6923,6877,6875,6918,6892,6757,6832,6833,6836,6790,6838,6794,6791,6795,6793,6848,6837,6849,6850,6851,6852,6853,6854,6863,6882,6900,6902,555,6783,6799,6845,6895,6817,1111,6873,6870,6821,6951,6879,6876,6948,6904,6950,6956,6862,6886,6957,6779,6907,6855,6945,6952,6954,6955,6959,6914,6965,6971,6972,6960,6953,6942,6910,6949,6962,6963,6964,6927,6926,6973,6728
)
[reply] => Array
(
[usecustom] => 1
[cycletype] => 1
[cycletime] => 0
[rewardnum] => 0
[extcredits1] => 0
[extcredits2] => 0
[extcredits3] => 0
[extcredits4] => 0
[extcredits6] => 0
[extcredits5] => 0
[extcredits7] => 0
[extcredits8] => 0
[rid] => 2
[fid] => 6728
[rulename] => 发表回复
[action] => reply
[fids] => 32,52,67,447,1120,1151,1156,6750,6763,6766,6769,6772,6773,6787,6796,6808,6809,6810,6813,6814,6820,6829,6830,6846,6856,6864,6865,6827,6930,6931,6776,6858,6880,6764,6932,6871,6758,1116,6788,6812,6798,6736,6759,6842,6966,6767,6828,6924,6935,6936,6938,6940,6941,6826,6909,6803,6919,6911,6908,6881,6920,6912,6913,6921,6925,6922,6789,6818,6819,6872,6928,6866,6969,6891,6889,6888,6917,6939,6947,6961,6824,6815,6937,6943,6970,6869,1121,6934,6903,6974,6944,6958,6929,6874,6894,6765,6896,6885,6857,6868,1113,6778,56,6844,6878,6802,6933,6811,6923,6877,6875,6918,6892,6757,6832,6833,6836,6790,6838,6794,6791,6795,6793,6848,6837,6849,6850,6851,6852,6853,6854,6863,6900,6902,555,6783,6799,6845,6895,6817,1111,6873,6870,6821,6951,6879,6876,6948,6904,6950,6956,6862,6886,6957,6779,6907,6855,6945,6952,6954,6955,6959,6914,6965,6971,6972,6960,6953,6942,6910,6949,6962,6963,6964,6927,6926,6973,6728
)
)
[formulaperm] => a:5:{i:0;s:0:"";i:1;s:0:"";s:7:"message";s:0:"";s:5:"medal";N;s:5:"users";s:0:"";}
[moderators] =>
[rules] => 1)发布主题帖+1经验+1活跃币,回贴+10华小分
2)Lv.1及其以上级别会员可以发布主题帖,Lv.1及其以上会员可以回帖
4)转帖请在主题上标明
5)禁止发布与本版块无关的主题(违反,帖子转移到相关版块,并扣50经验)
6)禁止回复与主题无关的帖子(违反,帖子删除,并扣10经验)
[threadtypes] => Array
(
[required] => 1
[listable] => 1
[prefix] => 1
[types] => Array
(
[137] => 体育菠菜玩法规则
[138] => 体育菠菜心得方法
[139] => 体育菠菜问题咨询
)
[icons] => Array
(
[137] =>
[138] =>
[139] =>
)
[moderators] => Array
(
[137] =>
[138] =>
[139] =>
)
)
[threadsorts] => Array
(
)
[viewperm] => 9 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 19 31 67 68 69 73 75 76 81 83 84 87 89 90 91 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 7 8 92
[postperm] => 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 75 76 83 84 87 33 38 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 92
[replyperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 67 68 73 75 76 83 84 87 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 92
[getattachperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 67 68 73 75 76 83 84 87 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 92
[postattachperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 67 68 73 75 76 83 84 87 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 92
[postimageperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 67 68 73 75 76 83 84 87 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 92
[spviewperm] =>
[seotitle] =>
[keywords] => 足球,篮球,体育,规则,打法
[seodescription] => 理论知识,玩法技巧,专业术语解释,迈向体育菠菜高手的摇篮!<br /><a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/thread-51289-1-1.html" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜新人必看】</font></a> <a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=6728&filter=type&typeid=33" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜规则】</font></a> <a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=6728&filter=type&typeid=34" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜心得】</font></a> <a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=6728&filter=type&typeid=100" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜问题咨询】</font></a>
[supe_pushsetting] =>
[modrecommend] => Array
(
[open] => 0
[sort] => 0
[orderby] => 2
[num] => 10
[imagenum] => 5
[imagewidth] => 200
[imageheight] => 150
[maxlength] => 0
[cachelife] => 900
[dateline] => 0
)
[threadplugin] => Array
(
)
[replybg] =>
[extra] => a:2:{s:9:"namecolor";s:0:"";s:9:"iconwidth";s:2:"60";}
[jointype] => 0
[gviewperm] => 0
[membernum] => 0
[dateline] => 0
[lastupdate] => 0
[activity] => 0
[founderuid] => 0
[foundername] =>
[banner] =>
[groupnum] => 0
[commentitem] =>
[relatedgroup] =>
[picstyle] => 0
[widthauto] => 0
[noantitheft] => 0
[noforumhidewater] => 0
[noforumrecommend] => 0
[livetid] => 0
[price] => 0
[fup] => 6831
[type] => forum
[name] => 体育知识讲座
[status] => 1
[displayorder] => 5
[styleid] => 0
[threads] => 2735
[posts] => 23139
[todayposts] => 0
[yesterdayposts] => 0
[rank] => 113
[oldrank] => 113
[lastpost] => 125127 升降盘理论 1741350473 france89
[domain] =>
[allowsmilies] => 1
[allowhtml] => 1
[allowbbcode] => 1
[allowimgcode] => 1
[allowmediacode] => 0
[allowanonymous] => 0
[allowpostspecial] => 1
[allowspecialonly] => 0
[allowappend] => 0
[alloweditrules] => 0
[allowfeed] => 0
[allowside] => 0
[recyclebin] => 1
[modnewposts] => 2
[jammer] => 1
[disablewatermark] => 0
[inheritedmod] => 0
[autoclose] => 0
[forumcolumns] => 0
[catforumcolumns] => 0
[threadcaches] => 0
[alloweditpost] => 1
[simple] => 16
[modworks] => 1
[allowglobalstick] => 1
[level] => 0
[commoncredits] => 0
[archive] => 0
[recommend] => 0
[favtimes] => 0
[sharetimes] => 0
[disablethumb] => 0
[disablecollect] => 0
[ismoderator] => 0
[threadtableid] => 0
[allowreply] =>
[allowpost] =>
[allowpostattach] =>
)
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 2650 小时
本月在线: 0 分钟
|
|
本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑
* c- U4 C3 k$ V! n" i& p, Z* f/ a/ y4 p# R- a1 ^9 v! c
& e9 k+ Q6 y9 g2 D凯利指数的计算方法: ( O1 m2 a L3 d; F& D k' @: t+ a! @5 L p
/ Y( P% L% E8 V. k. L4 D$ v9 rG3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔,B:平赔,F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率,B'欧平均平率,F'欧平均负率)
1 R5 P4 K4 A1 t# k C. d0 o什么?对于一家特定的公司,它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'!你选择的公司样本不同,G值就不同,样本大小不同,G值也不同(一般的欧均值都取99家公司,从统计学的意义上来讲,还称不上样本!)这个G带有随意性,大个0.05小个0.08之类的,也只能算做误差,现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大?我大你个0.05怎么了?我小你个0.08又有什么干系? H% P+ \' B9 l U8 T. [
' k9 e' B: |4 K% c3 t. u7 E# ]8 t7 |, T9 j/ E( o
& t" ]0 @) w! L( u* H% h
; V5 l: X! ]9 Y) G既然涉及到平均胜率,那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的:平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n,S1'是第一家公司的主胜率,S2'是第二家公司的主胜率,以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率(返还率)又是这样求的:r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F),什么??又做梦了!!返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的,这样也行??AC米兰踢亚特兰大,哨响了,投注比固定了,但踢出3,这场返还率可能是150%,踢出1可能是20%,踢出0,可能是5%,结果不同,返还率也不同啊!这里也可以看到,博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛,因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛,但强队踢假球的成本更高,它想操控也操控不了,最好的选择就是烧烧香:天哪,爆个冷吧!
% b- u3 [3 z: I5 \" A1 C7 w9 Y7 e6 Z/ _5 C5 S: K8 T8 s, A# c" }1 m( F+ {2 V
做下算术了: 2 i( y$ \ W: ~: {8 \" `$ ?% d0 e) p; R' T/ Q
; ~' L. y! k5 F, M& W+ d
- ^# S/ x- ]5 X+ i' N: Z(1)SSP: 2.22 3.15 3.01 : `4 u/ N9 a2 y W3 e8 }9 n6 a- [ I) K9 a6 R
0 l y( C7 N Q( m: p- M q Q
(2)立博: 2.10 3.25 3.00 " ?$ N* o% r% T4 i$ y
; l3 y6 M& i. e; L(3)威廉: 2.20 3.10 2.87 : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [ t) E) q9 Z" z+ ^
% E' ?' Z0 E$ w7 [2 O. I
(4)易胜博:2.25 3.10 2.95
# W2 Q1 q1 ~" ~. z- U+ {+ l. `) m% ~. _% ?$ E( |% ?1 b- Y- H8 [* |
我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值
& N/ [) F0 D7 b5 F8 F, p$ }' ]( i% c
$ E. Z b0 A V& jS1=2.22 B1=3.15 F1=3.01
: j( o p, s7 q7 a6 t5 Q
% R$ r; g# R* _+ Z% `S2=2.10 B2=3.25 F2=3.00
5 q( K7 Q& Y" N% ^# T/ X4 W2 j% ] s
" J7 {& H& y2 ]+ u( JS3=2.20 B3=3.10 F3=2.87
/ y2 a5 S( Z: v1 x1 a6 j0 X7 P9 A' e& q. H7 B1 c9 S5 j- O7 p) q; k6 R5 y9 g. q
S4=2.25 B14=3.10 F4=2.95 ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y G+ \+ R& R6 V) x0 Q" B
8 w( d5 ` _0 H- N/ h7 V4 v
0 C% A- |3 v4 ?( s1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01 => r1=0.91 ' T+ e2 v$ O G9 N9 ?3 x% I3 M; N7 _
( l. c8 Y( N: l M1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00 => r2=0.90 # t0 ?( P e* X% l; F7 J1 v! F; v8 N$ L& |! P5 x/ E
8 e6 S# a. E) U; V2 l
1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87 => r3=0.89 % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q
. ~- {( u* [6 |" ^/ s) g- \. U6 d& j0 `7 R
1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95 => r4=0.90
" P- A- l5 a5 W, r9 g7 E5 r: G+ x9 Y- y- K6 r9 e) D9 l; A' S0 w9 k. N% f! A
S1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41 : W# q# m$ g# T6 T4 x( v" Z) f/ ]. k/ \: \
: O |. \8 O* _, r. U+ N
类似的计算后,于是: # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M j9 c/ ]8 y" m9 f8 V% J
3 [& O! j' K; E/ J. t) R3 L9 X
S1'=41 B1'=29 F1'=30;
$ m$ w) `8 a& y J6 U
7 u! i2 G* {% i! ES2'=43 B2'=28 F2'=30 3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s
$ g& W2 g! Q; F6 p' G; m' V% T, u, P% O2 o$ o' Z# u% m$ V, K$ q: h1 _
S3'=40 B3'=29 F3'=31 V, p, s$ \/ ^" S0 g8 k0 `, P
6 z5 K/ n5 u, C9 L, h+ }+ O/ i% a0 v9 P; f! r+ l, W7 G
S4'=40 B4'=29 F4'=31 * P2 b3 N+ p" o! E, S+ {
: B6 y" Y' M2 }4 T/ O0 g4 ~
, d+ V [. y3 f- p, M(注意:3,4两家公司,赔率不同,但它们的胜,平,负率相同了) 8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o
+ O6 \1 | h1 A o0 Q- z* R9 Y/ Q" p9 \
L5 e! r6 f+ b2 n$ J6 c好:S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41 8 X4 `" Z) L/ r7 O' y/ T3 @$ Q
) q( ], k9 L T& t
- U* b* O5 P( q: M5 LB'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75 6 `1 e7 ]" c7 b8 _
% |; y/ t* l! L5 QF'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5
! `; v' F4 s: a# D+ {* k7 a% r3 e! X$ H8 _7 N; B" w) J4 m3 v
于是: / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P E8 u9 j! |0 ? u: C8 v: k2 T$ B9 A: ?0 k6 u- @- X6 _
9 E ]' p: I. D7 h. {3 C2 ^9 ?; b# |: \5 d
G31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02 ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M8 z/ y& P. ]* L8 Y" G! ~, n
+ D$ n) P# X# M
% p( M; |; E. i5 ]7 CG11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56
: }8 }: h5 u) p R/ G9 [; r! w6 i1 n" m$ u5 x/ Z
G01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8 2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ]
5 b) q* V5 ^, `0 C. r1 Z" @7 e& m. [ j e8 ~6 j1 K
当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得,当然,事实上你不用去求(每场比赛这样求,不累死也气死了),赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。 好,到这里你应该可以知道了,凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了,因为除了赔率是真的,其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的(并非是攻击凯利指数,这个,前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了)。 + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \. j4 ?0 s9 u4 N+ K
6 C* |* h W0 f7 S7 s3 A2 @. G$ i3 V# | }* V! r% t: x
通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系,在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 814 小时
本月在线: 0 分钟
|
|
数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系,在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 5782 小时
本月在线: 8 小时
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 13572 小时
本月在线: 0 分钟
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 100 小时
本月在线: 0 分钟
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|