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[体育菠菜心得方法] 凯利指数的计算及在足彩中的运用
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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑
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& e9 k+ Q6 y9 g2 D凯利指数的计算方法:    ( O1 m2 a  L3 d; F& D  k' @: t+ a! @5 L  p

/ Y( P% L% E8 V. k. L4 D$ v9 rG3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔,B:平赔,F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率,B'欧平均平率,F'欧平均负率)
1 R5 P4 K4 A1 t# k  C. d0 o什么?对于一家特定的公司,它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'!你选择的公司样本不同,G值就不同,样本大小不同,G值也不同(一般的欧均值都取99家公司,从统计学的意义上来讲,还称不上样本!)这个G带有随意性,大个0.05小个0.08之类的,也只能算做误差,现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大?我大你个0.05怎么了?我小你个0.08又有什么干系?  H% P+ \' B9 l  U8 T. [
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; V5 l: X! ]9 Y) G既然涉及到平均胜率,那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的:平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n,S1'是第一家公司的主胜率,S2'是第二家公司的主胜率,以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率(返还率)又是这样求的:r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F),什么??又做梦了!!返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的,这样也行??AC米兰踢亚特兰大,哨响了,投注比固定了,但踢出3,这场返还率可能是150%,踢出1可能是20%,踢出0,可能是5%,结果不同,返还率也不同啊!这里也可以看到,博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛,因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛,但强队踢假球的成本更高,它想操控也操控不了,最好的选择就是烧烧香:天哪,爆个冷吧!   
% b- u3 [3 z: I5 \" A1 C7 w9 Y7 e6 Z/ _5 C5 S: K8 T8 s, A# c" }1 m( F+ {2 V
做下算术了:    2 i( y$ \  W: ~: {8 \" `$ ?% d0 e) p; R' T/ Q
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- ^# S/ x- ]5 X+ i' N: Z(1)SSP:    2.22    3.15    3.01    : `4 u/ N9 a2 y  W3 e8 }9 n6 a- [  I) K9 a6 R
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(2)立博:    2.10    3.25    3.00    " ?$ N* o% r% T4 i$ y

; l3 y6 M& i. e; L(3)威廉:    2.20    3.10    2.87    : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [  t) E) q9 Z" z+ ^
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(4)易胜博:2.25    3.10    2.95   
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我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值   
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$ E. Z  b0 A  V& jS1=2.22    B1=3.15    F1=3.01   
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% R$ r; g# R* _+ Z% `S2=2.10    B2=3.25    F2=3.00   
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" J7 {& H& y2 ]+ u( JS3=2.20    B3=3.10    F3=2.87   
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S4=2.25    B14=3.10    F4=2.95    ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y  G+ \+ R& R6 V) x0 Q" B
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0 C% A- |3 v4 ?( s1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01    =>    r1=0.91    ' T+ e2 v$ O  G9 N9 ?3 x% I3 M; N7 _

( l. c8 Y( N: l  M1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00    =>    r2=0.90    # t0 ?( P  e* X% l; F7 J1 v! F; v8 N$ L& |! P5 x/ E
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1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87    =>    r3=0.89    % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q
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1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95    =>    r4=0.90   
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S1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41    : W# q# m$ g# T6 T4 x( v" Z) f/ ]. k/ \: \
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类似的计算后,于是:    # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M  j9 c/ ]8 y" m9 f8 V% J
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S1'=41    B1'=29    F1'=30;   
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7 u! i2 G* {% i! ES2'=43    B2'=28    F2'=30    3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s
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S3'=40    B3'=29    F3'=31      V, p, s$ \/ ^" S0 g8 k0 `, P
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S4'=40    B4'=29    F4'=31    * P2 b3 N+ p" o! E, S+ {
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, d+ V  [. y3 f- p, M(注意:3,4两家公司,赔率不同,但它们的胜,平,负率相同了)    8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o
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  L5 e! r6 f+ b2 n$ J6 c好:S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41    8 X4 `" Z) L/ r7 O' y/ T3 @$ Q
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- U* b* O5 P( q: M5 LB'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75    6 `1 e7 ]" c7 b8 _

% |; y/ t* l! L5 QF'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5   
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于是:    / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P  E8 u9 j! |0 ?  u: C8 v: k2 T$ B9 A: ?0 k6 u- @- X6 _
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G31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02    ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M8 z/ y& P. ]* L8 Y" G! ~, n
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% p( M; |; E. i5 ]7 CG11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56   
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G01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8    2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ]
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当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得,当然,事实上你不用去求(每场比赛这样求,不累死也气死了),赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。    好,到这里你应该可以知道了,凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了,因为除了赔率是真的,其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的(并非是攻击凯利指数,这个,前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了)。    + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \. j4 ?0 s9 u4 N+ K
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通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系,在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。
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数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系,在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。
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3#
进来学习一下
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这个太深奥了,看不懂
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主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
这么高深 概率论研究的很好啊
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