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于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。
. D2 _! e2 b7 J# c- b' w, e( E' E1 E5 ^3 T, e) W: D5 F
, F9 y. M1 s' `西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率8 x$ J1 N2 V- @ Z1 I: o* ?- S
7 ~2 \3 p! ^( @9 c1 J. i以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:/ E+ C0 T8 y: j$ [( ~
, U, p; L9 K' R7 M6 k; d
皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54%
7 e7 v. `" J( C+ |$ J* l+ e. R4 {6 `, l8 a1 v- j0 ~
很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?
& ?6 v' U" O$ d1 |( S/ c/ w" E
- `- s" t H& C3 U/ X答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!). h* i/ S' }7 n/ x# l
# ^2 O7 P& X5 A7 R" Y' Q9 @/ Y* Z0 m* U4 G9 U/ r
以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?, g& i" P/ Z7 G2 B" N, j3 l
3 F( i8 Y; P) s
* p# x/ U/ E( m3 M- u# Q1 I) k
盈利可能性
; X, E: x/ Y8 o5 c" L, z. m6 M( C0 f% E) Z" z
对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。
( G3 n9 l; [7 K7 l X+ B
( @! t; k3 v2 X. \增值
1 _. \ N5 D4 T' m1 C# \
. ?8 C e% a( q, v; ?$ F, ]许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。) |( D- M" n- I6 |, L; P+ X3 K
- _& t# U% p, \3 p" c你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?7 h, ]& {; v1 |! |! T" Z9 m
2 G1 g; D. x# k- ?/ Ca) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5
0 g! w; I4 A- ~9 D a) ]0 |4 ~
( \0 J9 R O7 Z0 s正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么
: a. K1 t& T. ?& d \' q, G/ ^# ?- i2 w9 ^
40%的机会你会收到150元的利润
* Y, b* V0 [2 J! M( d- I& \) L1 o60%的机会你会一无所有( o( J7 N* J3 y. R4 v- F
预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0
& t3 \% @/ V' Y' v& c* |由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。
$ f' a3 ~! a; P% b4 Z9 y$ M/ S7 h G* ?3 c5 ?( |/ X9 V, I
增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。( B2 d# ~) V/ I7 I( F5 f4 q
! `9 `% e( }5 |+ d) ~% D4 E" I
基于增值的投注7 H8 \" @# v6 `" H1 H% U
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凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。
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0 ]* g( H5 @1 c, a公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)
7 q; X7 B0 P1 m0 O
' g, k4 M: M& G5 q* _! I1 wA=博彩资金
& `4 d+ B6 I! [" X2 [. ?) K ^3 ^P=获胜机会
# w2 j% Y8 \8 B$ M" ~O=总获得回报(包括投注本金)6 q3 r ^3 H G3 \! G
* X! K6 x6 d2 h c4 F8 G首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。
3 L- _1 e: e. Y. s# l
, q, L: f' X- x7 ~好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。: X- F! b; F2 A) u# o
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1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)
! }0 |. e! h7 L, x9 X( p7 \) v/ r; s+ P/ [5 G" `$ F# E3 [! G U" ^
A = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)2 Y5 f7 E! U+ S) K% x& B. m v
2 b6 i5 k; m: A# \
A=02 a, T% ^$ z+ P: `4 D
+ T V8 @, C, h! U2 r) S! e结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢
: y! F! B4 [; X
! ^4 L7 d4 f" `; X2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)6 k: L+ n! P4 c r7 o6 Y
9 y( N+ j! B8 a5 T1 V( @
A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)0 I' u0 O/ {' Y: g
" h" n/ L$ A& [; _0 x5 H( [5 {" PA=0.1$ p: U/ ]0 v3 Y6 t) T" `$ }: e0 o
6 K" s0 h. ?: u. P0 z1 R结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去, {) V; r" v: i8 { l& ` R
' K# S! L$ Q0 W1 v/ V3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2)
0 B2 S" L, L9 `" K, a9 X0 H( T: H( ~4 v7 }% s- ^* x- E
A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)+ u' z4 W% {. P F
% i2 k2 h5 p; R: u* c+ G( Q! `A= -0.2
. I- U( g" B1 I
9 U" h2 a4 @- O2 E. z3 @结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好, M6 U5 _+ i: i; a5 `2 u- D
3 t2 w& T( L1 F& ~! Y第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
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