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[lastpost] => 2750392 比特币交易员注意！—为什么这个指标预示BTC可能下跌20%（转） 1752889314 22301
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[虚拟币交流]
比特币关键指标再次闪烁——BTC 会反弹至新高吗？（转）
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随着比特币徘徊在历史高点附近，积极的购买行为再次出现，但鲸鱼的行为却呈现出分歧。& I0 x% j! U, y
RSI 信号超买水平，而 MACD 动量减弱——BTC 需要突破 105,000 美元，否则有回调风险。
/ G0 A; i2 v9 G$ x# c3 R# r+ y! [比特币的[BTC]随着积极的买家涌入市场，市场势头再次增强。
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S7 e/ y. q8 j$ s5 }接受者买入/卖出比率已飙升至 1.02，这是自几次历史性突破以来从未见过的水平，表明市场参与者的信心日益增强。
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链上数据显示，大型钱包正在加大增持力度，为许多人猜测的可能创下历史新高的最后冲刺做好准备。
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随着市场情绪升温，BTC 价格徘徊在之前的峰值下方，下一轮上涨行情是否即将开始？
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市场信心[激增]？' w1 q/ c5 y3 r
根据最近的CryptoQuant 报告，Taker 买入/卖出比率已果断突破 1.00 大关，达到 1.02——这一水平在历史上与比特币价格走势的突破时刻相关。
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2 B! a; R# M) G2022 年末，在 15,000 美元至 20,000 美元的积累区附近以及 2023 年 10 月突破 30,000 美元之前也出现了类似的峰值。
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: z% m9 z* n# K+ M! C4 D随着 BTC 目前徘徊在历史高点附近，积极购买的回归表明人们的信心日益增强——但这也提高了风险，因为这个门槛此前曾先于上涨和急剧逆转。; K- X2 b% c2 z$ n( \ [; t
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超级持有者已暂停- U S; E9 a0 K) ~2 s
尽管总体积累趋势依然看涨，但仔细观察就会发现行为发生了微妙的转变。
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根据 Glassnode，持有超过 10,000 BTC 的超大鲸鱼已经冷却了他们的购买活动，回到了 0.5 左右的中性积累分数。
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相比之下，中等规模的群体（持有 1,000 至 10,000 BTC 的钱包）仍然是活跃的买家，得分接近 0.9。0 \4 u* G& V- x2 D" {
" g& s' w# S- B3 G: ^8 ?0 X) N即使是规模较小的机构投资者也表现出持续的强劲势头。然而，散户投资者仍在继续分散资金。 P5 t6 A# w( q/ i7 m
/ e* y/ g# B, `; P/ O9 [; |2 [尽管看涨势头持续，但推动涨势的主要是中等规模的投资者，而非资金雄厚的投资者。% s8 w; h2 M7 M% K( n8 L# v `
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比特币显示出疲软迹象- z6 H1 | ~ r) n. G
RSI 为 70.68，确认了超买状况，这通常是局部顶部或小幅回调的前兆。
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! T8 x8 z' B! S5 q, l* P! k+ {此外，MACD指标仍保持看涨，MACD线位于信号线上方。然而，动能正在趋于平缓，反映出购买压力正在降温。
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. {# x, `8 A n5 T% @4 m% s尽管早些时候出现飙升，但价格仍然维持区间波动，暗示可能出现疲软。
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如果 BTC 未能令人信服地突破 105,000 美元，那么在任何持续突破尝试之前，短期回调至 100,000 美元或更低的支撑区域仍然有效。. z @* v" b) ^& r. \$ D" d1 r) A3 B
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