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[体育菠菜心得方法]
《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘
# K6 h% C5 e( w/ K+ u* q% Y. U
: \1 \' c9 H% q3 U# G 平手中水,主队有利
0 @9 K' @: r0 D6 p' y. ^& Y 在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。+ ], b1 k( ~3 g
09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:9 [5 r# j% k2 `- j+ k
英超主队1 _( V& v, H/ ^% ~
胜:13场 48%- W# H# E. N: h" c. O4 `
平:5场 17%
) Y$ s! e" z! R- I! q: g' B; h 负:9场 35%& y, m+ [; G2 F2 C! u: Q
通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。
2 W2 q$ E1 I; T2 ?: E) x3 B $ ]) O4 S! s! d8 m% a8 e
一、初盘阶段
+ e& s! q6 X; i) W- p 具体到水位如下:0 k5 [, J# K, I8 u
初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负
" ~9 |1 W0 @+ }& Q/ I4 l& h 初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负 {$ D4 X# B. L. X) J X) F9 D" S6 ^
初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负- [1 t# I0 v" I/ h
; V4 p4 @$ p* J7 k. |
分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。! v8 {9 _, \) q4 `: b
初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。: }: o" ?" j- Q3 S
初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。
' T; h8 r. @5 y5 e M" _, H/ Q. \
二、临场阶段 r( Q3 ?. ` L+ r( r5 \
& c2 ]! {2 z1 A( I3 F 具体到变盘和水位如下:( g0 ^( U9 u$ v6 B3 ?/ D. d
临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负
5 l* I- s N7 `2 ~ 临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负
# c& {* ^- Y$ B* L
1 @1 h7 s* e) j( U4 l# i$ ~" S 临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。
+ [/ k+ e# G" `7 ?6 G. g 临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:
, z9 V* D8 u3 c) B' t9 i: y% |* o ~
3 r2 i6 A5 B+ }) H0 H 朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿3 ^, I' b$ a# h
初盘:0.82平手1.04& [. ~6 Y& x7 _9 v2 H
终盘:1.01平手/半球0.85
+ h# P+ @; j% J4 N# k3 R/ x: N# V
1 g* @3 B- d& c1 ? 朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆% U; n" J) r4 W U
初盘:0.76平手1.10
, C {# C4 j3 ?. M 终盘:0.95平手/半球0.91
0 G0 F8 e6 ~1 {3 ?& v4 e; }: L c. _
2 ]9 H* p' `' D; Q v 朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技
; R8 g) b$ x4 d. \ 初盘:0.82平手1.04
4 o% h: n6 \% E. B y" F 终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98
! Q1 t$ u4 o5 M; ]& E5 s/ ` * t: v8 R9 r4 a# K. q
伯恩利2-1西汉姆% V$ o, }4 p7 v
初盘:0.88平手0.98! W a! j( {$ c+ p0 _6 h
终盘:1.12平/半0.74
% D3 V& o$ M% d2 Z+ ` 我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。
" Y5 X- x2 R' K7 Z; I' G 提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。0 |9 N5 Q3 z/ r, v
提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。$ I; v5 d4 G S. V, a3 Y2 l
G7 V) f1 @ ?/ Y) L1 s 三、球队表现! _+ a! x& f- Z! `7 E5 H4 H- C
. E. W3 O% }# R
结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。: w9 y v0 E c+ `% u0 B
. M' b n, i' @* \+ s2 d5 v 四、投注要点
% E- j4 x0 ^; p" b% U! ^5 n. K8 Q 要点1:平手中水、主多不败/ O3 S+ j4 R" Q" ~
要点2:平手降盘、走两头1 N# D* v$ V6 _( ]" z, K
要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败
, @7 J+ o& Y& \4 E9 w$ l 要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大/ B3 d+ V, e( f4 O7 J
要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任
- O" a5 h7 L; i4 P+ o 要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大. N; _0 R8 u8 [7 x
要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛 |
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