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[体育菠菜心得方法] 合理运用投注金达致利润最大化
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1#
于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。
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4 x4 j" E% l# a) `) V西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率3 T) R5 H3 b& T- m: t

# {7 @% X- z9 T& ?1 a9 ~: i以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:
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2 z6 {( C( w8 W7 x/ E皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54%
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很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?
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答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)
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以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?
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盈利可能性# V* m. }6 c/ g6 ]' o7 v+ X
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对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。
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% G  l1 z) F. g( V增值
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许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。
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+ Q- L! v; A; R8 c" z3 @你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?$ z* D& |2 w: s

$ O* W; g. O+ r: la) 1.4   b) 3.5   c) 1.67   d) 2.5
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正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么  K7 j2 [  T4 C
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40%的机会你会收到150元的利润( K! x) u6 q4 i( r5 G( i7 y5 k
60%的机会你会一无所有
: \! g( N$ n5 Q2 d8 x' Q- d' z2 D预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0 0 b2 w! J4 [+ G. ?
由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。
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增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。& M; o' M" w# E$ b: `! x5 w
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基于增值的投注
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凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。) g1 k6 M+ x# w

. h; z3 w1 f  o  o+ X公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)7 w1 V; O/ k( Y: ?& m- q. r& B
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A=博彩资金0 q$ A3 y2 A8 _5 t
P=获胜机会
4 E: S; }! U5 n: G" vO=总获得回报(包括投注本金)
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首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。
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好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。4 t& n' H- ~( H8 r. F! c

* I7 t* j5 C4 U, e8 l6 V1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)
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8 G% c/ _( y! t1 G8 h# z" [A = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5), s1 @8 m+ }( w& o0 c  c) t  c
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A=0
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结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢
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3 F! i  D! H( r$ ~! m; f$ e& d2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)
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7 Q+ _- N/ J# u7 JA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)
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! ~/ D2 j& z. N. E$ x/ zA=0.1: m' f+ V; t- b* X! U) _$ j

% ]/ d+ ?, G) {$ i0 `4 m结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去$ x: G# f  o- L7 g
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3 负增值  (40%机会获胜,赔率2)
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)' t* j) ~8 P$ F( I) Z8 K

9 H) p" G. y7 u/ w# M& T$ x  {. ^: xA= -0.2 2 Y2 I3 }/ F9 K9 t' |. K

. g# t/ m6 p9 n# f% w5 Q结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好! D; g6 e) ^0 I
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第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了
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2#
谢谢楼主的分享,楼主辛苦了
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3#
算是分析得非常深刻了!谢谢
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4#
谢谢楼主分享好文章,
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5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
谢谢楼主的心得分享
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