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于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。
2 s! H2 D" b/ I2 H% v2 c( Q& Z. ]1 I; d% G0 E5 Q
4 x4 j" E% l# a) `) V西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率3 T) R5 H3 b& T- m: t
# {7 @% X- z9 T& ?1 a9 ~: i以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:
' f2 T5 _ K+ S$ v
2 z6 {( C( w8 W7 x/ E皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54%
& X7 n- R1 a/ d+ I; E& F4 X P5 l# Y3 S) h
很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?
0 K8 H! l' M/ I8 Y) U" r% l: ~! G" b( W
答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)
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/ u1 M; Q( T) ]+ W9 i7 ]* U7 ]; Y: {. G: D* O6 N
以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?
9 V0 @9 c/ M- N4 R! T8 x/ S4 f; E+ x/ p
: o+ E/ P! {4 T3 {
盈利可能性# V* m. }6 c/ g6 ]' o7 v+ X
8 K* v) @, p* Z) }
对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。
) f5 H# y) S: h8 o$ _, _
% G l1 z) F. g( V增值
# U' L' _* H) X4 U. F- Q; @5 M9 Y* B* x" V* j* f5 z% H0 [2 C2 ~9 b
许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。
9 ]& I* B, V _+ e1 U1 U" O6 ~
+ Q- L! v; A; R8 c" z3 @你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?$ z* D& |2 w: s
$ O* W; g. O+ r: la) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5
2 B$ U& o/ l3 y; \$ }! f; ?5 g* O/ v1 z7 r# O$ U H( j: d3 j
正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么 K7 j2 [ T4 C
2 _7 H5 v- \; C& ~
40%的机会你会收到150元的利润( K! x) u6 q4 i( r5 G( i7 y5 k
60%的机会你会一无所有
: \! g( N$ n5 Q2 d8 x' Q- d' z2 D预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0 0 b2 w! J4 [+ G. ?
由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。
( a7 P0 {" p4 ]% X( J' c6 e: z5 z. d" k/ l# t$ q& V4 r
增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。& M; o' M" w# E$ b: `! x5 w
" z @& E) z. `) h; n: S9 X
基于增值的投注
' d. S) M6 r3 s1 ^0 ^, O6 o1 V g0 C% `. g# c7 } x/ i, V
凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。) g1 k6 M+ x# w
. h; z3 w1 f o o+ X公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)7 w1 V; O/ k( Y: ?& m- q. r& B
& ~' A+ D1 y+ T+ k' A
A=博彩资金0 q$ A3 y2 A8 _5 t
P=获胜机会
4 E: S; }! U5 n: G" vO=总获得回报(包括投注本金)
9 R. }0 C1 V/ v# b% j7 E+ O7 X5 B G
首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。
* d" l( K; W; h' S8 O! r1 l* h- l2 d+ F' f5 ~7 _, E! X
好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。4 t& n' H- ~( H8 r. F! c
* I7 t* j5 C4 U, e8 l6 V1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)
$ s( E% y. v1 e) ^
8 G% c/ _( y! t1 G8 h# z" [A = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5), s1 @8 m+ }( w& o0 c c) t c
1 I2 H2 C; S9 x+ O# N
A=0
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结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢
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3 F! i D! H( r$ ~! m; f$ e& d2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)
' G' ]8 Z7 M4 N
7 Q+ _- N/ J# u7 JA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)
9 M2 R( l1 k* S7 N
! ~/ D2 j& z. N. E$ x/ zA=0.1: m' f+ V; t- b* X! U) _$ j
% ]/ d+ ?, G) {$ i0 `4 m结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去$ x: G# f o- L7 g
& u2 K5 Y* x( X4 r* T# A
3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2)
3 s( d# t. \& E( g3 \9 y" o& } I; Q; n a2 i+ j. p
A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)' t* j) ~8 P$ F( I) Z8 K
9 H) p" G. y7 u/ w# M& T$ x {. ^: xA= -0.2 2 Y2 I3 }/ F9 K9 t' |. K
. g# t/ m6 p9 n# f% w5 Q结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好! D; g6 e) ^0 I
- G% C/ a/ Z& M+ K- H7 C }
第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
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