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[体育菠菜心得方法] 合理运用投注金达致利润最大化
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1#
于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。5 |/ N6 ]. N% f( A% d

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西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率
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0 L$ u$ O! L8 z2 b以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:
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! c9 i# S8 d. v: J: C皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54%
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4 C# j* p" @% \7 [7 o( ^* O& |很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?) {  H" x/ Y! {

5 a; N* G+ V; K答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)
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1 |/ |1 A, {. u( w8 ^以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?
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盈利可能性
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+ B- v+ Y( J! r, O7 M6 X, _对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。
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增值
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许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。5 I: B8 u& T- `, M4 h
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你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?+ l% T; u  l' A2 [

, E, K; q1 L4 ^: K0 _* V# Da) 1.4   b) 3.5   c) 1.67   d) 2.5
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/ V8 }5 X4 E& G' C9 f正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么
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& @) D" ^& H! w( _$ U6 T$ p40%的机会你会收到150元的利润
# v" p+ T2 o& W+ v60%的机会你会一无所有
. N: X2 l* K2 S! k4 |' x  ^/ t& q预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0 6 _2 K# J# Y$ B
由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。
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增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。
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3 K$ i. ^% s, b0 ^5 B/ U3 v1 U$ j基于增值的投注, p: \3 M1 _% P
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凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。1 R% H3 q: A2 R* Z) F$ r0 L
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公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)* s* j& K* }6 ~. r; {, {5 m
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A=博彩资金
: [! s- N) P' e: KP=获胜机会
1 I: I8 C' R: m+ G; iO=总获得回报(包括投注本金)0 v# }2 A: q+ R' S: k/ D/ A

/ c$ R9 L2 C/ L( [( H' X, [3 [首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。
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好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。
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1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)
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A = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)$ }1 P$ C  k2 {/ c( k# Z( {1 R" ~' V
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A=0
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9 X9 R; P' K' m0 e5 M结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢+ g) v1 k' ~2 y) ~4 r+ D

4 L8 G8 I+ r  G- }  E: T2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)
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A=0.1  k: n" q0 n; _/ P

5 |% G9 k; O$ k' y/ `% C% m结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去+ H, K+ Z+ Q4 z) x5 y" \8 W1 m

" A4 u' o: ]/ }% f$ u% G3 负增值  (40%机会获胜,赔率2)
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1 w) J& D8 a! c- \8 L! aA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)
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7 C" {" [1 |( e5 TA= -0.2 & G4 d2 h( \9 l* B& v; E% Z, c- q* W

$ F5 S% k1 t( Q3 C: w( _/ D结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好) l8 [! x+ {  U9 r- g

( |5 k. R) ]* A6 a; `0 h第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了
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2#
谢谢楼主的分享,楼主辛苦了
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3#
算是分析得非常深刻了!谢谢
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4#
谢谢楼主分享好文章,
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5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
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