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连锁因素、基本面因素和技术面因素的组合表明，以太多头将面临更多痛苦。
; a4 ~- ~: p( K& j8 @以太坊的原生令牌Ether(埃塞俄比亚)的价值在2022年下跌了一半以上，同时对比特币(BTC)目前仍停留在2000美元以下出于几个原因. % z. H! a3 \. z
此外，由于另一系列因素，ETH price可能在6月份面临更大的损失，这些因素将在下面讨论。
4 \( x; w! S! F+ z以太坊基金集体亏损 ( H4 x- w) q2 l7 S6 k
根据CoinShares的每周市场报告，投资者已在2022年从以太坊投资基金中撤出2.5亿美元出版5月31日。 9 d8 S$ x- c0 q
与其他硬币形成鲜明对比的是大量外流。例如，投资者在2022年向基于比特币的投资基金投入了3.69亿美元。
6 t; g9 r2 X( |/ V) Z! a与此同时，与以太坊竞争的区块链第一层协议Solana和Cardano分别吸引了1.04亿美元和900万美元。
: K, ^# i/ T7 |% m& C
" a4 H' s r1 \编辑切换为居中
$ s2 L$ z. p5 g7 o$ w, B流入/流出加密资金(按资产) - E7 R2 P+ L& J8 v. X6 m
这从以太坊基金中提款是一个迹象，表明最近在特拉USD (UST)和特拉(月神)Terra内的令牌算法稳定币生态系统——降低了对整体分散金融(DeFi)部门的兴趣。 / f+ h! m9 f0 u$ O7 t, {
以太网的乐观前景仍然依赖于对DeFi市场繁荣的预期，因为以太坊的区块链托管了该领域的大部分金融应用。截至6月5日，基于以太坊的应用程序锁定的总价值(TVL)为6871万美元，几乎占TVL总DeFi的65%。
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- J0 H. r2 o; a+ p编辑切换为居中 4 U$ u) j2 h, n5 M$ G+ M
6月5日的TVL以太坊
$ m) Z2 O, E( d但是，TVL仍然反映了以太坊DeFi池的大规模撤退，在5月9日Luna Classic和TerraUSD Classic倒闭之前，该池徘徊在1000亿美元左右。
( @$ }3 `& k2 {4 P# [8 n宏观风险由美联储的鹰派政策根据Tagus Capital的合伙人Ilan Solot的说法，加上对DeFi行业的谨慎前景，乙醚似乎将在6月份继续下跌。
) u5 ~: v! f- l$ p& W/ @/ c* T男性讲述金融时报: * W( S8 F! o! {2 k0 d2 v
“如果美联储收紧，世界陷入衰退，人们需要支付每加仑4.5美元的汽油，他们将没有多少钱投资DeFi或花在区块链奥运会上。”
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呆滞的技术面 $ R# d: i0 r& g8 ^/ _1 `
自5月以来的交易行为也描绘了以太坊的熊市前景。
$ v7 E! G: D5 j! ?* C2 W% ]具体来说，乙醚一直在水平趋势线支撑和下降趋势线阻力所限定的范围内波动。该形态看起来或多或少像一个“下降三角形”，在下降趋势中形成的熊市延续形态。 7 j( r4 M( t1 h4 M
根据技术分析的规则，下跌三角形在价格决定性地跌破其支撑趋势线后分解，然后下跌三角形的最大高度。如下图所示，乙醚有可能在6月份经历类似的下跌。
9 ? R9 G* J& J% E# E' ^
5 E% Q2 X# C& J, j. A8 C+ _9 r
编辑切换为居中 & `4 u, H5 u/ v& X* M
ETH/USD每日价格图采用“下降三角形”设置
! D, k! N- S0 W9 {, t如果ETH的价格跌破三角形的趋势线下限，它可能会在6月份跌至1，350美元，比今天的价格下跌约25%。 $ B7 Q1 S- y/ t0 {
交易所的ETH储备正在增加 + ^, t6 s" J! H0 ?( E9 l
CryptoQuant的数据显示，自5月份以来，全球加密交易所的以太网余额总数增加了550，459以太网演出. - }9 E4 g" i$ ~2 V3 _2 I
自Terra崩溃开始以来，这相当于近9.5亿美元的资金流入了交易所的热门钱包。 8 K/ H! i& P# ~3 O, t3 m
u+ Y6 @2 n9 `' W/ P9 p3 ^3 C
编辑切换为居中
# C8 T: p/ z( E3 f6 [以太坊外汇储备
6 h* B/ A- ^+ y% B& ^4 ?) A O1 P通常，当交易者想用代币交换其他资产时，他们会向交易所发送代币。因此，如果交易所的ETH储备下降趋势开始逆转，抛售压力可能会增加。
& I9 n+ z8 e4 e! l: J/ ~0 K% [来源：金色财经 |
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