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[虚拟币资讯]
币世界余勋6.2 缩表为弥补去年放水 而放水初期低点其实就在5.19两万七 长线以此为据
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在大部分人认为6月的50加息+缩表、基本在5月的下行中、得到有效释放、
4 c0 d$ y3 A: f- W余勋也不例外、 4 [- U) U$ _! F# ?6 L
其中最关键的是美联储26号纪要、会灵活对待加息。
; ]% `) V; v8 f3 ^1 E& D7 O是保经济的重要决策！ : B; x# K6 n: W% J$ e5 k
这其中美股迎来了阶段连涨、大饼也四连阳、 * X2 u+ |( c0 M" R, i$ R
低点26700-32400、 3 Y1 B6 m) _9 d8 l
反弹近六千点、以太低点反弹近300点。
; c2 c6 A$ j+ U但仅仅在缩表两个交易日、 # V9 W, x9 H. A! O n
大饼回撤幅度达到三千点、以太近200点。
/ a( ~* e y* D5 H# ~6 y- i涨幅就已回撤过半！ 7 |/ n( X, R) ^! Z
所以暂时来看，期待的靴子落地效应基本告吹。 6 Z3 b- w9 F/ [5 _5 B
不是利空没有得到释放、是市场做多情绪无法调动。
- _, W6 B% f" g3 k6 \其次、 ! ? \+ l: S3 E. Z# n
缩表大致会延续至2024年初、 U7 K: s2 o' q. n
每月950亿、直至达到1.5万亿美元、 / L0 w- }% t, w% v" L4 s
等于说、这期间会持续在蓄水池中进行抽水。
. t% \; r+ r3 S9 |美股想大肆上行也是有心无力。
- p1 U* E b: e" [! x/ z0 V# @但回到币圈、
' J) W( T5 J M" T( a' P9 m去年牛市因5.19去中心化大跌、 ; o( ?' q2 |6 Q4 E! \( h; L
在27000附近。美联储大幅度在放水、迎来第二轮周期牛市。 + q W3 ~% g# u" b6 z' l( ^
而现在弥补这个放水漏洞、而行情其实已经在放水底部附近。 ! v3 Z& _6 t2 r: [* _
个人认为、在经历了加息初期、中期恐慌、
( Y& J" v. Y# w缩表虽是实质利空，但终究是缓慢的。 / N* N4 E7 e2 I5 }, E
对当前的底部、影响有限。 + ?1 W5 H4 E* v, x+ v: T
最不济、缩表启动至结束、行情依然处于放水初期币圈阶段。也就是当前27000-30000附近。
; i* b. f1 k' d- B& S所以27000、即是 0 [1 l9 D2 Q% J7 W5 @# u, [
去年5.19低点、也是今年5.12（加息50基点+缩表恐慌低点）
) T2 }3 o+ R# [& j$ k同时还是去年放水初期低点、
@3 Y0 B" q# y: i: D* W4 e也会是今年缩表弥补去年放水周期的低点。 : Z, H) Y7 g3 \6 J2 e. P
由此得出的结论是、
# n1 y9 _% a2 @1 x加息+缩表等实质利空、市场年度最大创伤、底部就在27000附近、而以太就在1700附近。
) K: U8 _. o) z! I+ u* C7 m; i8 K点位不会出现太大偏离。 9 g$ S/ g E! ~! d. P# ]" [
综合以上、
# W. X7 o# `. V M& y7 h美股逐渐消化了加息、也开启缩表缓慢抽水、
N* e% y! X4 ]" {在整个运行过程中、会由初期的恐慌、缓慢下行，逐渐适应、止跌、然后徐徐补涨。
, ~) K! V1 G( Z% X那操作上、无非缺乏了长线效应、 ( Y Z' j. s% f$ P' l7 W: z
抬头大肆上涨、条件匮乏！下行、最大利空由当初的注水点、再到完全调离这些注入资金。低点其实也都在这附近。 " O6 u, p' j; m1 y) o6 o
那行情其实还是围绕三万点、进行弱势整理。
8 c* }* N/ x7 ~7 `4 `即难深跌、也难大涨，直至缩表有效、通胀得到控制。 7 c3 J$ g% i3 P9 G- y+ ]& H
美股适应上行、市场逐步接受开始回暖。 5 @6 }; l! g" p; R1 N' T9 R$ K
夜间美股走势平平、虽弱但不跌。 & y# S$ X$ p5 R2 _* j1 ^7 d
大饼无需追空、给一空间点位、
5 o4 Q; q% |1 A逢28000附近、以太1720附近可做短线接多点。
H6 O8 z8 r$ ]3 i- X- Q高空需至31700-32000间布局、 7 B$ O2 E- ^$ p, y7 A
反之、空间不够、进场始终趋于震荡区中轨、 ; \' C; b+ [, A X9 g2 v
得不偿失。
2 J( S# g; e5 d* C来源：金色财经 |
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