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[虚拟币交流]
比特币交易员发出“超买”警告 比特币价格瞄准8.4万美元（转）
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比特币（BTC）在第一季度的最后一个华尔街交易日中有所走高，但比特币价格观点远未确信空头已经失去控制。- [( V2 m' Y" H0 A* P" l w1 P
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3月31日华尔街开盘时段，比特币价格小幅走高，尽管交易者对短期走势仍持风险规避态度。+ X$ r4 X) ^0 i* C! Z: E
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- |8 O# i* Q/ t* n 比特币相对强弱指数（RSI）暗示跌势或将延续
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Cointelegraph Markets Pro与TradingView数据显示，Bitstamp交易所BTC/USD交易对当日上涨1.5%，最高触及8.3914万美元。
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- i4 ?- h- w9 t: L 尽管美股开盘走低，但在季度收盘前的最后几小时，比特币仍迎来期待已久的反弹。
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8 q) H& t9 } N3 S 市场动能持续受4月2日即将生效的美国新关税政策影响，黄金在创下3128美元/盎司历史新高后亦出现回落。
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针对比特币价格走势，多数市场参与者仍持谨慎态度。: X$ ]/ k) L" r5 ~7 [
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知名交易员Roman在最新X平台分析中针对4小时BTC/USD图表指出：“正在重新测试我们关注的关键84，000美元区域”。他在引用相对强弱指数（RSI）时预测， @- l& ^& o% B+ D7 f( p r; A+ N5 z' E; Y
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$ C8 W" i, t; z “从短期框架（LTF）看，随着下行突破和看跌回测完成，我认为价格将开始走低，”Roman补充道，“同时RSI正在回测50中轴，而随机指标已显示超买。更高时间% Z9 H. q7 S0 ~; V
, p5 j! R4 }7 A' e框架（HTF）同样呈现看跌倾向。”
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知名交易分析师Rekt Capital进一步解读RSI信号，指出比特币在突破数月下降趋势线后，正在日线级别回测支撑位。
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) N( P6 f7 B$ }: @3 ]$ I5 W; V( _: T “$BTC的RSI正试图将下降趋势线转化为支撑位，同时价格走势也面临下降趋势压力，”他向X平台粉丝总结道，“若RSI能成功守住趋势线支撑．．．将显示市场正在( s9 R6 d; e8 f# a. {% @
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积蓄动能，价格有望突破现行下降通道。”! z3 _; Q5 E# B4 o' |0 `: u* n
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早前Cointelegraph报道指出，多项比特币价格指标共同勾勒出当前牛市阶段的疲软态势，暗示回调行情或将延续。+ A% f8 p4 E& Q3 }0 [4 p% D# [1 Z
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与此同时，各预测平台给出的BTC目标价位已下探至6.5万美元，部分模型甚至显示更低预期。
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比特币价格分析显现与2024年末相似走势
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3 I1 m% o. h- ]3 a! H: R9 v- ^ 当前3月及第一季度的整体表现均未达市场预期。, f) \! \: i3 G/ c
1 o+ S! Z% [& W 监测平台CoinGlass数据显示，在缺乏上行催化剂的背景下，截至发稿时BTC/USD年内累计下跌10.8%，3月单月跌幅达1.1%。0 i1 s& R! O4 ?1 j* ?. o4 Q8 E
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6 V: ~. S; H' x5 w8 C3 O 该报告特别强调了比特币与美股日益增强的关联性：“尽管市场动荡，但近几周价格走势已在7.8万至8.8万美元区间形成整理格局。值得注意的是，
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市场恐慌性抛售迹象正在缓解——反应性卖盘减少，而长期持有者已重启积累模式。” t+ L3 N( x e* f8 u
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