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[虚拟币交流]
比特币下跌，黄金触顶——但 Uptober 尚未结束（转）
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今年十月已经测试了比特币的[BTC]信徒。在通常被称为“Uptober”的月份过半时，BTC 发现自己处于陌生的境地，遭遇了历史上最糟糕的月中表现之一。1 Z- b4 W7 r- Z" \. @; e2 `; _
4 D% ~8 Z* [! X* @但你看不到的是，比特币收盘上涨的可能性仍然很大，罕见的BTC-黄金图表细节也表明可能已经触底。
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; t( D/ b _9 l/ v- \: ZUptober 能否如期实现目标，还是说这将是它的终结？# x/ R/ T4 K+ W' Y8 z- i
+ s! x+ T6 N! \* X3 u
开局艰难，但历史看好牛市( T! ?" R* M* A; v
2025 年 10 月已经赢得了比特币十月份表现为有记录以来第二糟糕。对于通常看涨的月份来说，这是一个令人惊讶的转折。
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" G9 c' @& h7 T: b; o( v/ d来源：Alphractal
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' \9 Y/ Y9 p4 u3 \) U" _3 e15年来，只有四个10月份收盘下跌。但鉴于比特币最终上涨的可能性高达73%，胜算仍然对比特币有利。
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: y5 ^, k4 |; r# g2 v尽管开局不稳，但许多人相信本月结束前可能会转为看涨，保持这种势头。
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事情变得有趣了
$ }& I: ]# ?% b7 U# H( ?BTC/黄金比率中罕见的信号表明形势可能很快就会发生转变。
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来源：X) _& B& n2 J- q, X5 W( {: p
1 l D8 j2 H3 {. X4 }% T根据最近的数据，该比率已达到迄今为止仅在主要市场底部出现的水平，而这些时刻往往是从黄金转向比特币的最佳时机。3 W. @/ M5 d5 M
7 \1 S1 \! \' k ~, o- `
BTC/黄金震荡指标徘徊在-1.8左右，从历史上看，这与BTC开始跑赢黄金的周期低点相关。
% h+ ?: x/ `$ D) t: m: k% b5 E- S3 _; l* U0 |% f4 O
正如 Alphractal 首席执行官 Joao Wedson 所说，该图表“基本上是在大声疾呼”现在是“出售黄金、购买比特币的时候了”。
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随着黄金价格处于高位，而比特币出现触底信号，风险回报方程现在可能更倾向于加密货币，而不是传统的避风港。- w2 r% O x2 [, S1 R& W6 I* i6 l
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空头在 10.7 万美元附近失去动力
* h1 f: o; R+ u5 a# ]4 }5 [经过几天的持续抛售，截至发稿时，比特币似乎稳定在 107,000 美元左右。 L, a5 h% L+ a
5 K. m) }" b9 Y6 ~3 l7 K# `' Q来源：TradingView4 P+ z; O, A3 o% K5 n2 r
& f2 ]7 a9 y4 e; M, \7 h日线图显示看跌势头减弱，RSI 指标显示 BTC 处于超卖区域。与此同时，MACD 图柱趋于平缓；如果买盘活跃，则可能出现动能逆转。
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% j, l+ P0 Y& \: g/ a2 M) `然而，BTC 的交易价格仍然低于关键 EMA（20、50、100），整体趋势仍看跌。' h, S; X3 K. v% ~) k. z8 J
X9 B2 H, w6 {$ T8 W& m ~4 |突破 110,000 美元的决定性举措可能确认复苏，但在此之前，有点乐观永远不会伤害任何人。' ?& U) z6 N- d# D
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