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[虚拟币交流]
宏观 FUD 如何影响比特币并引发“不同”的山寨币季（转）
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最近，在比特币日益占据主导地位的背景下，山寨币一直在苦苦挣扎# X" x0 G2 X9 T4 h, u+ ~) G
新型的山寨币季节最终能否扭转比特币的势头？
& D- I& x* _( H6 S# U六月历来是一个比特币[BTC]比特币 (BTC.D) 确立了其主导地位，今年也不例外。事实上，BTC.D 已攀升至 65% 以上，创下新的周期高点。
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# X3 i4 n2 w" n然而，今年地缘ZZ紧张局势又增添了新的变数。通常情况下，人们会预期资本会流入投机性资产，以利用短期波动。然而，BTC.D 却一路走高。- @' r% j" X3 y
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这是市场的转折点吗？宏观的 FUD 进一步巩固了比特币的避险属性，而这一属性曾经只存在于山寨币?2 V6 E: h o7 e9 Z
# n* N) D' w; U. |随着资本整合至 BTC，山寨季指标下跌- d2 q3 a( z+ D
要了解比特币和山寨币之间的关系，我们需要退一步来看。+ r- }7 x/ U' j( E
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在 2022 年熊市期间，一系列连锁冲击导致 BTC 暴跌，导致年度净亏损 65%，并以 16,531 美元的价格收盘。
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有趣的是，同年第二季度以太坊的[ETH]相对于比特币而言，ETH 的表现达到峰值。ETH 吸引了资金轮动，甚至在 8 月中旬引发突破，在此期间表现优于 BTC。( k, o; U# i( v" p( k. g& b
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简而言之，包括美联储大幅加息和 LUNA/UST 崩溃在内的宏观不利因素促使投资者寻求另类资产的对冲，短暂地为以太坊等山寨币带来了优势。
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三年后，形势发生了逆转。% c* U/ q! h% f2 v: L: b
3 i5 V ~$ ?- ]4 C+ E这 altseason指标处于两年来的最低点，山寨币的月度损失达到两位数，而比特币的主导地位已飙升至四年来的最高点——与此同时，宏观压力继续考验牛市的信念。5 u$ y5 r s$ G, j6 ~
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发生了什么变化？机构资本. I2 z& y7 P- M+ z9 S4 [
- ?! u9 N! q+ p" ^大型投资者如今主导着市场流动。而且，他们对BTC的偏好，将其作为宏观对冲工具和流动性锚，使其主导地位持续上升。) V9 [& _$ A: ~2 V( j
$ i1 N4 H# X9 Z* z3 R% O; S3 @零售业也开始迎头赶上。随着比特币表现出更强的资本韧性，许多人选择将资金投入BTC，以长期稳定性，而不是追逐高贝塔山寨币以获得短期投机回报。, U. q$ K% Q& Y4 g ~
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因此，只要市场保持波动且宏观风险依然存在，山寨币轮换就可能继续处于观望状态。
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山寨币第 2.0 季 – 建立在实用性而非炒作之上
! T b7 g6 u, f; Y& q2 O" M" r! c我们可能正走向一个截然不同的山寨币季，它不再受“炒作”驱动，而是真正的实用性驱动。这一次，像以太坊这样强大的 Layer 1 链，索拉纳[SOL]，XRP 可能会引领潮流。, t4 M% r7 G1 v+ a$ o _
" c+ l4 ]6 L- ~6 h2 B5 V: Q这些网络不仅仅是与比特币竞争。它们正在构建新数字经济的基础，并引领风险加权资产 (RWA)、DePIN 和稳定币等趋势。
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XRP新的稳定币，RLUSD就是一个很好的例子。它已经以 4.28 亿美元的市值跻身前 20 名，并且正在进军价值 2560 亿美元的庞大稳定币市场。0 ^9 D+ e) o _3 {0 ~5 X; I* ?
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尽管如此，要让真正的山寨币市场腾飞，市场需要一个像 NFT 或模因币是过去的事了。话虽如此，我们已经看到市场行为发生了明显的转变。+ ^9 H! |3 W3 \3 c7 d& c1 d
+ d+ Q6 R3 W1 ]$ i% r; N8 b3 i在机构资金流动的推动下，比特币的主导地位并未减弱。然而，在表面之下，山寨币正转向现实世界的应用。而且，这种转变最终可能会让局面重新对他们有利。& E0 y$ g. ]$ _) |
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