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[虚拟币交流]
比特币在恐慌与不确定性中保持强势:BTC 如何避免进一步亏损(转)
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比特币下跌 7% 表明宏观压力不断上升,市场正在重新调整。- C& J' t$ s/ U
随着避险资金流的增强,金价仍距历史高点仅 2%。
$ h7 n! S, ]$ o7 l; v宏观恐惧与不确定性(FUD)又回到了讨论中,但说实话,它从未真正消失过。反过来,比特币[BTC]再次成为众矢之的。+ c0 r! C5 F# @9 c% v4 K
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经过三天的深度去杠杆后,“10 万美元有风险吗?”的讨论又重新活跃起来。% q, b7 y& P2 o% e
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然而,BTC 并没有持续下跌太久。它强劲反弹 3%,再次测试 10.5 万美元大关,而这一走势看起来并非昙花一现。
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' ]3 d+ S; k4 Y, `# _据AMBCrypto称,交易员似乎正在从过去的市场震荡中吸取教训,将之前的恐惧转化为策略。如果真是这样,这是否意味着大众最终会变得更加聪明?+ ` P" O- S: s( o" `
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FUD 情绪升温,BTC 表现强劲! j9 R( n. U1 i; P
别误会,这并非典型的关税引发的市场恐慌与不确定性。目前正在上演的是两个中东国家之间的全面冲突,这两个国家都是OPEC的重要成员国。: [6 W* p- N# l5 b1 I- P" o3 |0 K
& m! z$ _( g- v) z8 ` w过去两个月里,油价已上涨近40%,与伊朗相关的原油基准价格在过去24小时内飙升近5%。这一切都发生在距离联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)下次决议不到一周之际。
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+ b) X. \! K& A! X1 ?风险资产回应迅速地。
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道琼斯指数下跌近 900 点,随着资本防御性地转向债券,10 年期美国国债收益率下跌近 3%,美元指数 (DXY) 下跌约 3%,反映出全球市场正在降低风险。
# [ s. C: b( J- I' T1 f9 f9 T) g& f/ g
黄金[XAU]也做出了回应,在避险需求激增的背景下,上涨近4%,至3,432美元。从技术面来看,黄金目前已近在咫尺,距离重返历史高点仅剩2%。
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5 Z/ e8 g$ w. o% j- N当然,有些人会指出比特币7%的跌幅,并称这证明“韧性”论调正在崩盘。考虑到围绕加息可能暂停的“预期”不断升温,这种担忧也合情合理。1 ^# K& E8 R# E: i- J3 _
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然而,市场定位却揭示了一个更加微妙的故事。它表明,这与其说是屈服,不如说是重新调整。& @. x: g2 I C: k: z
/ a* Z: r% t' z# Z% _交易员越来越聪明
! d$ W# C: d& Z+ c尤其, 机构流动已悄然再次转为看涨,不到一周的时间,就有近 13 亿美元流入现货比特币 ETF。2 `" g7 \) _/ w4 k6 s8 F
. A* k, P& d! Q$ Y2 L3 Z" [6 A) z这种流入起到了关键的减震器的作用,支持 BTC 从低点迅速回升 3%。
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7 b' V& B/ x% F但最大的不确定因素是什么?衍生品交易员。与以往不同,过去未平仓合约 (OI) 过热预示着拥挤,并会导致大幅清算,而这次期货市场保持着惊人的克制力。( ?" v6 Z2 E4 ~* n: S
2 W4 U& ^; z- u/ V/ O举个例子:5月23日,BTC创下11.1万美元的历史新高,而持仓量(OI)则达到803.1亿美元的峰值。然而,这种泡沫最终引发了市场剧烈的崩盘,导致BTC回落至100,424美元。6 l; N8 F% C/ R/ K% \3 K
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当然,现在宣布确认反弹还为时过早,但这些迹象值得注意。# I3 J8 e' w; T8 S
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尽管在恐慌与不确定性(FUD)爆发前,比特币的看涨势头有所增强,但其持仓量并未达到峰值,即便市场一度逼近历史新高。这种克制表明,市场持仓结构正在日趋成熟。! I7 a6 G7 r% Z, F" R5 C
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与……相比以太坊[ETH],BTC参与者此次采取了更为谨慎的态度。( q( `; g" l: j! Z7 X. ]$ \) v
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通过控制杠杆,他们大大降低了连锁清算事件的风险,有可能挽救数百万美元的损失。; x J" b; r5 C: I
- j f2 k$ u' v$ Q& j加上机构资金流入的强劲吸收,金价再次跌破 10 万美元的可能性现在看来越来越小。2 v" v( v0 u0 [
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