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[lastpost] => 2749629 关税、就业、降息预期极限拉扯,BTC劲升9.08%,创历史新高(07.07~07.13)(转) 1752668153 mattf
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7 y/ n4 z1 Z O$ D4 y( i 中信证券(26.430, 0.45, 1.73%)发布研报称,加密货币具有较好的隐私性和抗通胀性,自诞生以来成长迅速,并且正在逐步正规资产化。随着加密货币的刚需扩大,
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形成类似黄金的刚需托底,投机定价的格局。但短期来看由于货币化不足和边际定价者风险偏好高,加密货币反而投机性更强。中长期内,预计加密货币和黄金都将受益于
( l7 K9 \% I& [/ D q, I8 d2 g1 U/ O7 x# k* o
逆全球化、去美元化带来的货币化。“未来黄金”不必然包含比特币,但大概率有加密货币。短期内加密货币有望受益于特朗普任期内可能的监管放松,但需等待贸易、外交政
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策的确定性。2 O4 K' w( l$ d7 q
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中信证券主要观点如下:7 Q5 c2 c$ ~( w3 c
. o' l/ J, E1 V! ]/ d
加密货币是一种基于区块链技术的数字货币,具有较好的隐私性、抗通胀性。
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( k3 O! R* @7 M; J2 F- R. K 自其诞生以来,市场成长迅速,例如比特币呈指数型增长。
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近期加密货币表现不佳,并未体现出避险属性。
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2024年比特币主要有一季度和四季度两波集中上涨,分别是因为ETF发行、比特币减半、亚洲投资者热情高;以及特朗普交易影响。但2025年以来比特币及其他加密货币表现/ r- t( w9 g/ _8 c
9 a& N; E n. w: b5 G5 j/ W& Z( X: j不佳,与黄金走势背离,并未体现出避险属性。9 W/ k; L# N, D+ f$ R
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加密货币市场与黄金愈发相似。3 [4 n- P6 ~! j8 N3 P% }3 ]
. f1 v0 C5 A7 ~* {" \* u7 Q0 T' Y 从规模来看,加密货币市场仍明显小于黄金市场,增长空间巨大。从持有结构来看,两者都是集中度较高,且加密货币市场持有结构更加不透明,均有利于价格的长期上行。( h4 L( ^1 p& b- j
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加密货币开始出现刚性需求,形成与黄金类似的刚需托底,投机定价的格局。
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由于加密货币在跨境支付、抗通胀信用方面具有优势,形成了快速增长的刚性需求。加密货币正在快速的“正规化”、“黄金化”,与黄金一样形成了刚需,以确保其难以出现泡沫, u0 J6 U5 x' x0 b
7 \0 C# x j; y" l. O破灭、大量投机交易完成定价的格局。- J9 f) P* z# p4 N& N
3 ~; G2 H9 Y# P+ q. @ 短期内,加密货币的货币及避险属性仍不及黄金,因此表现背离。+ X' Q: W" ^6 Q6 R; F/ O3 {5 ~- j
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我们认为根本的原因是1)社会认知、税收制度中加密货币的货币化程度不及黄金。2)由于加密货币高成长性,边际定价者的风险偏好高。短期内,加密货币避险属性和投机属性 [# P5 c0 F2 `6 [0 B
8 `+ l& |4 l+ A1 p8 G' a% i _共存,后者更占上风。长期来看这些因素望将淡化。" b1 g! e% ~# p0 K% F
% m: a- n& A! \) t3 P, { 长期来看,加密货币料仍然有极大的增长空间,最根本的逻辑是逆全球化及去美元化,驱动黄金、加密货币的货币化。% j1 H+ W$ \" y0 Z* V
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2008年以来逆全球化和去美元化进程持续,预计加密货币坚实的市场需求仍将持续扩大。我们判断在长时间维度上,黄金和加密货币的货币属性,都会是“未来黄金”。由于技术劣% k3 f0 u4 x; `( D0 m
. b% k- f! P* j7 N% g势,比特币不必然是未来的黄金,但“未来黄金”大概率包含加密货币。尽管如此,我们认为技术优势战胜信念优势需要很长时间,比特币在加密货币中的独有地位仍将维持很久。
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1 Q! f- E) c6 ^2 s* I' ` 展望未来四年,比特币及其他加密货币在特朗普的支持下仍然可能表现亮眼,但短期转好需要特朗普给出确定性信号。
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5 c9 u3 D P/ g$ b. a1 c$ @8 N+ a9 u 本届特朗普ZF与硅谷的紧密联系让加密货币有望受益于潜在的监管放松。但短期内贸易政策不确定性等因素压制了风险偏好与流动性宽松。转涨或需等待特朗普给出外交和贸易政
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* S/ H3 J2 c0 q+ j策确定性。未来若特朗普ZF对俄政策转向也可能带来风险。) d6 C4 v+ f1 U# A3 J
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风险因素:0 B( P! X7 e) U( F
& X! r* \$ X6 L, f0 W8 g( s6 i 特朗普ZF政策超预期;美国联邦债务问题超预期;美联储货币政策宽松不及预期;地缘ZZ风险。
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