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[虚拟币交流]
2.67 的比特币价格温度将如何影响 BTC 的未来?(转)
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比特币价格温度升至2.64点,接近过热区域。
/ J2 ]) _% ^& S" V# B尽管BPT上涨,但比特币在回调前仍有较大的上涨空间。& f5 V1 q" s5 w) F
过去一个月里,比特币[BTC]已飙升 17.94%,从 8.3 万美元的低点上涨至 11.1 万美元。尽管近期涨势令人欣喜,但一些利益相关者对潜在的过热现象表示担忧。
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其中一位是 CryptoQuant 分析师阿克塞尔·阿德勒他曾警告称,比特币正接近过热区域。
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: A \- e5 X$ i! Y/ {: v) _5 ^Adler 在分析中观察到,比特币的价格温度已升至 2.67 点,这表明这枚王者币正接近潜在的过热区域。他补充道:5 f/ b, Z& K, K7 C# Q7 M; d' y$ K
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“本周期的前两个峰值是 BPT 达到 2.75 和 3.57。”, q# g. o+ ?7 ^+ R
( r5 L7 ?( v' K* z" M2 X' ]6 x) k) i平均而言,如果 BPT 达到 3.14,BTC 温度就已进入过热区域。目前,市场距离完全过热区域仍有 0.47 个点。
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因此,BTC 尚未达到之前的最高水平,在达到过热水平之前仍有一定的上涨空间。
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BTC 图表暗示了什么
" |5 ~3 {" [/ R3 B0 b6 P: r虽然上述分析提供了乐观的前景,但必须再三核实并确定其他图表所表明的内容。' X- T5 `* ^) `7 P! R$ A( @; _
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首先,看看比特币的MVRV,截至发稿时约为2.4。过去一个月,它一直在2.13和2.41左右徘徊。这些水平通常与健康的市场相关。# m _8 q* j0 ?1 ]4 s( w
8 y3 I" g! A6 N! F/ ]从历史上看,当 MVRV 超过 3.0 时,比特币就进入过热阶段,长期持有者开始抛售。目前 MVRV 仍低于 2.5 和 3.0,表明 BTC 仍有上涨空间。
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* t- Z! r- x8 c! ~( y: \7 H2 ]比特币的NUPL进一步证实了这一点。截至本文撰写时,NUPL处于58%或0.58,这是一个信念/否定区间。因此,由于NUPL尚未达到0.75,BTC尚未过热。2 D+ u, m# k7 b: p
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当 NUPL 进入极度兴奋区时,就会导致获利回吐,因为持有者开始担心潜在的调整。' n9 [; n, @; [( x m( @7 S W( ^
! C4 G4 A {4 C! s& \& D4 _8 ?+ r最后,从比特币的 Pi 周期顶部来看,BTC 远未过热。值得注意的是,当 111 日移动平均线 (SMA) 突破 2 倍 350 日移动平均线时,BTC 便进入过热区域。这种情况在过去四年中从未发生过。
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9 @: k" J+ T1 u- ^! x" R6 g; E4 T最后一次交叉记录于 2021 年。9 R0 z& ], D2 p/ H& }- Q
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截至发稿时,350 x2 SMA 位于 16 万美元左右,而 111 DSMA 位于 9.1 万美元。因此,在两条线交汇之前,仍有进一步上涨的空间。: |9 \/ b; ~5 Z' k4 z
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简而言之,尽管比特币的价格已飙升至接近过热的水平,但仍有上涨空间。此外,其他市场指标也表明,BTC 可能会继续上涨。
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如果当前的上涨趋势持续下去,BTC 价格可能触及 12 万美元。然而,如果部分持有者转向获利了结,BTC 价格可能回落至 10.6 万美元。
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