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[lastpost] => 2751814 特斯拉在最糟糕的时机抛售了75%的比特币,错失数十亿美元收益(转) 1753396513 九嶷风
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[虚拟币交流]
比特币有望达到 15.9 万美元——这有可能实现,但前提是(转)
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比特币的周期顶部已从 2 年简单移动平均线的 15 倍稳步下降至 2.65 倍。5 f8 j9 j# O, S
尽管周期倍数较低,但 BTC 显示出结构性强势的迹象。3 o+ G( E) G& ?3 }* Q. I
过去八年里,比特币[BTC]随着市场成熟,其价格行为发生了巨大变化。3 v- j. o! ~+ t2 p- D, X0 I' X
% l) g' Q5 u W- u7 I随着每个周期的到来,BTC 的峰值都形成于其 2 年简单移动平均线 (2Y SMA) 的较低倍数,反映出波动性的缩小和更稳定的市场结构。
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从疯狂的集会到缓和的浪潮
" d5 U3 v/ R" u! c6 a* [' X回顾以往的周期,比特币的早期牛市是爆炸性的,根据阿尔弗莱克塔尔./ S+ U! L; b& g5 M
4 @6 s( |. {; W$ @8 A4 y' p这些爆炸性的上涨表明了疯狂的投机性增长,这主要是由薄弱的市场和早期采用者推动的。
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然而,从2017年开始,随着比特币进入全球市场并被广泛认知,市场开始发生变化。尽管比特币的增长令人瞩目,但却十分低迷。; e2 L% G0 n. D; f( B
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在此期间,顶部达到 2Y SMA 的 10 倍左右,表明成熟度不断提高,波动性较高。
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2021年,机构资金大量涌入。然而,周期峰值再次下降,先是触及2年均线的5倍,然后回落至2.65倍左右。) j( t. K6 W" P9 T0 {% [
, ?1 x# d- `8 v8 j# g这标志着一个结构性转变:比特币不再仅仅是一种交易,它正在成为一种宏观资产。) ~* q9 Q ]3 Y4 U
7 E7 N( q2 a" q- \8 C2.65 倍仍是标杆——BTC 能否突破 15.9 万美元?3 w4 }8 T$ K6 {; h |2 l7 ~
在最近的周期中,比特币未能再次突破 2.65 倍的市盈率,表明涨幅收窄,并表明它是一种更加成熟的资产。
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目前,2年期SMA x2.65水平反映了较低的波动性、更高的流动性和成熟的用户基础。该水平目前位于15.9万美元左右。如果BTC大幅上涨,15.9万美元将成为下一个关键阻力位。4 a, N6 Y4 f0 l& h
% f# h- r9 x! j7 i, T; a如上所述,尽管比特币目前正在经历周期顶部的下降,但仍有更大的增长空间。
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看看比特币的 MVRV,它目前在 2.4 左右波动,这表明市场仍处于兴奋区域以下。+ A7 m- o8 G5 q( N
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从历史上看,比特币的峰值出现在3.5到4.0左右。因此,在当前水平上,在周期触顶之前仍有较大的上涨空间。
/ c/ h# a5 u. e+ N* g- b
0 {4 W9 ?( T2 z4 e+ |8 P除此之外,NUPL(净未实现利润/亏损)仍然处于信念/否认区域——尚未陷入贪婪或兴奋之中。
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随着市场行为的成熟,BTC 持有者目前不太可能进行极端获利了结,因为他们预计当前周期的价格会更高。
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因此,尽管未来的周期不可能再经历 15 倍的激增,但仍有很大的增长空间,比特币作为一种投资更加稳定、波动性更小、更可靠。
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6 n4 E- q* @! D" {在当前市场环境下,BTC仍有较大上涨空间。如果周期趋势持续,BTC 价格突破 11 万美元,我们有望看到其飙升至 15.9 万美元。
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然而,短期内这种情况不太可能发生,但由于市场尚未达到顶峰,这一水平可能是当前周期市场降温的水平。' I# X8 t; O- Z n! ^; ~
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