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[虚拟币交流]
比特币有望达到 15.9 万美元——这有可能实现,但前提是(转)
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比特币的周期顶部已从 2 年简单移动平均线的 15 倍稳步下降至 2.65 倍。
q' h) C* H% O: G尽管周期倍数较低,但 BTC 显示出结构性强势的迹象。
3 n9 M N% q% l" N8 @6 H过去八年里,比特币[BTC]随着市场成熟,其价格行为发生了巨大变化。* }! H( ]5 ?7 e: O( B, y- ~" W1 U
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随着每个周期的到来,BTC 的峰值都形成于其 2 年简单移动平均线 (2Y SMA) 的较低倍数,反映出波动性的缩小和更稳定的市场结构。" O: _5 r$ e: m' i
. `% k E7 G: E( H8 S2 w从疯狂的集会到缓和的浪潮) C! j; K, n' n% D
回顾以往的周期,比特币的早期牛市是爆炸性的,根据阿尔弗莱克塔尔./ t4 a: G" f4 T8 g6 h. z( H8 M0 _
2 r& P4 l# d8 L" J* K: Q) B T- s9 m这些爆炸性的上涨表明了疯狂的投机性增长,这主要是由薄弱的市场和早期采用者推动的。
" d$ E: H5 q6 p$ J# `7 i) Q+ z+ I7 m/ a4 F
然而,从2017年开始,随着比特币进入全球市场并被广泛认知,市场开始发生变化。尽管比特币的增长令人瞩目,但却十分低迷。
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在此期间,顶部达到 2Y SMA 的 10 倍左右,表明成熟度不断提高,波动性较高。9 v9 \' H2 d2 A3 t3 w6 `" v
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2021年,机构资金大量涌入。然而,周期峰值再次下降,先是触及2年均线的5倍,然后回落至2.65倍左右。
& V3 c( \: n! w& w p9 x/ Y) F9 T# X, D, T. e
这标志着一个结构性转变:比特币不再仅仅是一种交易,它正在成为一种宏观资产。# B) q& N3 h0 X' |! V
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2.65 倍仍是标杆——BTC 能否突破 15.9 万美元?
* f, w% \: |' Q& t在最近的周期中,比特币未能再次突破 2.65 倍的市盈率,表明涨幅收窄,并表明它是一种更加成熟的资产。; ?4 r8 [; ~% W. u
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目前,2年期SMA x2.65水平反映了较低的波动性、更高的流动性和成熟的用户基础。该水平目前位于15.9万美元左右。如果BTC大幅上涨,15.9万美元将成为下一个关键阻力位。! n) _0 l' F$ @! U; L
* w+ _' p, @, O6 D. z1 w$ e* B; Z如上所述,尽管比特币目前正在经历周期顶部的下降,但仍有更大的增长空间。
' A2 @, A: n) i( ~, R( @6 z
0 B6 M. N. }+ ~5 G! n看看比特币的 MVRV,它目前在 2.4 左右波动,这表明市场仍处于兴奋区域以下。
$ }' C. Y5 Y) q* ]
( o. s2 a, _3 V" U" i, c' ] A( _从历史上看,比特币的峰值出现在3.5到4.0左右。因此,在当前水平上,在周期触顶之前仍有较大的上涨空间。
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, |( y; B* C6 I: P& d! a' S除此之外,NUPL(净未实现利润/亏损)仍然处于信念/否认区域——尚未陷入贪婪或兴奋之中。
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随着市场行为的成熟,BTC 持有者目前不太可能进行极端获利了结,因为他们预计当前周期的价格会更高。* D5 J( |/ g$ d/ c# D" E
5 J, R2 Z/ h) |. H+ {- v9 k+ Q1 W3 p底线
$ P- K8 V0 y# R5 e( [$ ?2 c因此,尽管未来的周期不可能再经历 15 倍的激增,但仍有很大的增长空间,比特币作为一种投资更加稳定、波动性更小、更可靠。2 e6 o( c! U9 U
5 B9 F1 F' e6 k [! ]
在当前市场环境下,BTC仍有较大上涨空间。如果周期趋势持续,BTC 价格突破 11 万美元,我们有望看到其飙升至 15.9 万美元。' t3 I$ J5 S" X: Y
* B- m4 J c$ \( V) P: h然而,短期内这种情况不太可能发生,但由于市场尚未达到顶峰,这一水平可能是当前周期市场降温的水平。
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