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[lastpost] => 2657423 以太坊:200000 ETH期权到期热刺需求-价格能走多远?(转) 1718552371 老衲来了
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[虚拟币交流]
比特币(BTC)将进入 300 天牛市?这一关键指标揭示了什么(转)
[复制链接]
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加密货币分析师Axel Adler表示,比特币 [BTC]可能会进入300 天的牛市。来自CryptoQuant的短期持有者利润数据显示,牛市正如火如荼地进行。
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: Y; U2 N. b: L9 y目前价格仅比两个月前的 73.7 万美元高点低 4.2%,且减半事件已经过去,购买压力可能呈上升趋势。5 d% R4 P0 |6 j$ r/ p
- a) {- h4 n: N' v) @$ K5 Q未平仓合约表明价格还有更大的上涨空间。
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评估之前的峰值以及对未来的预测5 J: s9 A9 B/ L8 \' N3 v
短期持有人花费产出利润率 (STH SOPR) 的 90 天 SMA 在 2018 年 1 月达到峰值 1.064,在 2021 年 3 月达到峰值 1.057。这表明 STH 利润峰值区间为 1.064-1.057。. n! B! {7 G# m% x; o( q# \4 v1 ?9 L
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截至发稿时,STH SOPR 的 90 天移动平均线为 1.015。, \3 ]* ~/ n4 H+ H
9 N+ @: s& G" y- S& M这表明上涨空间更大,而且顶部很可能尚未到来。此外,SOPR 90DMA 达到 1.015 与周期峰值之间有 291 天。; q& ~2 k! ?. K
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然而,2020-21 周期中相同值之间仅相差 105 天。因此,我们可能会经历三到十二个月的牛市。
" I, q g, _" s$ J该分析师还指出,近期持仓量7日移动平均线仅上涨9%。
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相比之下,2024 年 1 月的涨幅为 20%,2021 年的多次 OI 7DMA 变动也接近 20%。/ o) _5 A+ D7 ?, G
- E7 g v& Q4 O/ R7 H1 J综合起来,这两项观察结果都支持比特币市场才刚刚开始反弹的观点。
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. a# A+ ]2 Q8 }. Q- R. i& Q+ b突破 ATH 后需要注意的阻力位是多少?7 q2 L1 O) a; ~0 m7 G% Z; Q
局部范围(紫色)和不平衡(白色)都被令人信服地打破了。如果这种势头持续下去,73,700 美元的高点可能很快就会被扫除。
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: j$ A: v; V7 {, S) {: B' bRSI 尚未突破 70,这将是 BTC 在历史高点附近占据看涨主导地位的强烈信号。) ~4 o, }( Y# H. I: s$ P. k
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CMF 飙升至 +0.05 以上,表明资本大量流入和需求增加。
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, y) u! x- n6 b斐波那契扩展位(浅HS)显示 79.2 万美元、8.81 万美元和 9.7 万美元是下一个需要关注的阻力位。
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