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[lastpost] => 2797542 债券市场平静支撑比特币上涨至六位数价格的前景（转） 1768753360 叫我十三
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[虚拟币交流]
比特币跌穿2.6万美元！但波动率、抄底讨论度创近期新高（转载）
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比特币(BTC)近期持续在29,000美元至30,000美元盘整，波动性触及历史新低，但在昨7 @: n! O+ ?7 V" \
(18)日清晨大插针，一度重挫9%，创下自去年11月初FTX崩溃以来的最大跌幅，最低逼近$25,166美元，来到6月
+ v" C4 Y; R' H( ], P8 N* U0 M中以来的新低。
- c5 _# Z4 m1 @- V! d6 e而在昨日回到2.65万美元区间震荡的BTC，晚间再度跌穿26,000美元大关，最低来到25,619美元，截稿前已站回3 K/ i8 C- S; b& \* V h' S
2.6万上方，报26,010美元，近24小时下跌2.3%。$ O6 d: S2 {2 ~/ q- N5 p5 C$ r2 I
比特币波动率回到FTX暴雷以来的最高水平
+ g* _( j# g+ e# r) V6 a# Y# I- z比特币本周突如其来的重挫，让过去24小时加密货币全网爆仓量高达9,418万美元，其中多单爆仓5,512万美元，9 ]; W1 q& n4 {" O8 o
比特币爆仓金额将近4,400万美元。5 ^4 y5 I0 c0 P( p. A' g G
而先前触及历史新低的比特币波动率也出现大幅反弹，The Block援引Genesis数据指出，「BTC隐含波动率回到) S( S2 Q5 I( l+ j U
了FTX崩溃以来的最高水平。VOL of VOL(衡量隐含波动率变动幅度的指标)也大幅上涨。」# w- m; `3 n! t" m0 A8 Z- |
TheBlock数据也显示，过去24小时的BTC年化波动率激增至96.6%，远高于过去30天29.52%的年化波动率。
+ k# Y. S( ^5 U比特币RSI触及FTX崩溃后的最低点4 _2 s# ^4 t8 v7 w) K: W/ M
另外一个评估买卖盘双方力道的「相对强弱指标」(RSI)也表明比特币处于「超卖」的疲软阶段，Bitcoin Archive
2 D/ X! E8 p. n& A1 N4 \推文更点出，BTC的近24小时的RSI指标来到24.22，创下FTX去年11月暴雷以来的最低值，在FTX崩溃期间，RSI+ e# w; f! U) d7 w) Y
指标一度触及24.70，比特币当时跌至15,670美元。
% ?# s* U1 _* n. O kRSI指标在0-100之间波动，RSI超过70时处于超买，意味着上涨即将结束，而当低于30时处于超卖，意味着下跌5 i( h( i( b) R/ @
不再有足够的力量持续下去$ Y1 a. }" k6 b' i7 I
分析师：比特币的下跌是大型清算导致，下行趋势不会持续+ ?3 q5 L6 C q
针对导致昨日比特币暴跌的原因，市场众说纷纭，包括马斯克旗下SpaceX减记了其所拥有的比特币价值3.73亿美4 `5 G4 k: Q0 ?8 \
元、恒大于美国申请破产保护引发投资人对于天朝房市危机可能蔓延到全球经济其他领域的担忧、以及联准会鹰0 H0 c. e; T, `; {+ ]! H& ^
派官员暗示将持续升息，都是外界猜测的几大可能因素之一。% G. b- J, X" m2 o' C
据TheBlock报导，K33 Research分析师在最新报告中表示，这些叙述都无法解释下跌的时间或剧烈程度。他认为
+ M; `3 O7 \ j* S4 h. O, v是衍生品市场杠杆的增加创造了快速的反馈循环。
$ a8 m: A+ M. h# B“大量清算和随后的未平仓合约下降就证明了这一点。链上数据显示，衍生品市场价值50,000BTC(13亿美元)的未
$ b, F' C/ n) e7 C6 c平仓合约在几个小时内就被消灭了。下跌不会导致持续的负面趋势。如果说有什么不同的话，那就是多头的消失
) V1 D4 D# F, G: C" h: W3 n和空头的增加可能为即将到来的空头挤压奠定基础。”
" a0 u, y' n$ P! h0 k$ E另外，Bitcoin Magazine今日发布数据表明，75%的可用BTC由长期持有者拥有。让加密货币对比特币的价格支+ k: _( w. t6 I1 m
撑抱持信心。
" G m# t1 f. d$ i" F+ b* E' M「逢低买入」讨论度创4个月以来新高6 N3 k5 M/ \* f0 S* B. m2 h/ l& c
比特币价格本周跌至6月中以来的低点，区块链数据分析公司Santiment分享图表指出，社群关于逢低买入的讨论0 J1 n1 P& M8 } @9 d, h: G
热度激增。
9 @% Y" c2 u5 ^9 L# }3 S“在竞争币上周失血后，比特币在本周内爆，「逢低买入」(buy the dip)在社群媒体的讨论量来到4个月以来的最
J2 R0 B. P1 ~4 H" O高水平。”9 O" S- |3 @$ q9 a; ?& k& C# P
: [" x `0 C- b4 M( M |
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