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[lastpost] => 2773696 新 ChatGPT 预测 2025 年底 XRP、狗狗币、PEPE 价格走势=转 1760528155 爱美的女人
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1.现状0 m6 T3 n( k7 x0 Q2 v/ p% s
5 o. u$ q) A% R% ~: u2 \我们错过了股市反弹,因为对经济衰退的担忧逐渐消退,投机性AI引领了股市上涨。' ?6 A/ T, J8 O( B5 l
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在撤销sec的诉讼后,我们无法取得突破势头。
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1 N6 {' l4 V0 J; `( e9 Y2 D由于资本流入受限,以及人工智能在争夺新的投机资金,因此对下跌的需求疲弱。, D! z, M a4 D- W; A
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投资者参与度处于周期低点,热情被市场近期一连串事件消磨殆尽。 L# X8 N! \; s# o. R; |
! g/ I, A" u% @ |* A- D. i2.展望未来
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. w2 G# e) n+ x$ c+ f# K在接下来的几个月里,由于财政部TGA账户得到补充,不再抵消量化紧缩(QT),美国的流动性应该会下降。9 X. f R3 V$ k% {# [: q, N
+ {* b! e4 x7 u' U' |$ ]( w这也会使美元更加强劲,美元已在慢慢走高。
$ U3 \" a8 H" P
! D% ?, g* M- }8 Q* Z自4月份以来,全球流动性也开始下降,并显示出加速下降的趋势。- A# h3 }3 p/ j2 y/ n( r
5 D b4 K* k f另一方面,同步的经济指标保持良好,市场已经在心理上适应了更高利率的新常态,这意味着暂时没有恐惧(正如VIX指数和黄金回落所证明的那样)。& d- F" d3 O/ c# R0 T8 m
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我预计这种合力将使股票保持在高位区间,直到经济出现更大的裂痕,尽管可能会先出现回调。
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" z# U9 G K+ h3 Q c# u( g9 [至于对流动性更加敏感的加密货币,我预计第二季度剩余时间将继续疲软,交易将波动中进行。% c. }6 j3 w% Z: ~# T5 h
$ g9 w' ?* Z7 y; f2 C6 ~在短期内,也有更多的负面因素,监管压力和ZF / Gox 会增加比特币的抛压。+ h, w& J4 B! R# E! y7 x
/ b/ E4 H" Z" e2 z# i6 q但随着恐惧从市场中消失,我认为价格不会像大多数人想象的那样低(我计划在BTC 24K 和 ETH 1.6K 左右加仓)。
% `2 L& g$ T& M! H9 k6 ^: I( |, x. [# B4 Q- s
就像我们最近在某些地区看到的那样,这也可能为更多的pvp轮换留下空间,但更安全的玩法是专注于择机吸筹,以及利用闲置资产进行流动性挖矿。# E, Z2 X7 X7 @1 X
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Ripple案件的判决是一个未知数。
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随后,如果第三季度经济衰退仍未迫近,我认为随着选举活动的升温,会出现从低点反弹的窗口。
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9 o( l6 e; N' {我预计EIP-4844将为ETH/BTC比率带来局部高点,减半将指日可待。随着经济衰退到来,第四季度至第一季度可能会出现另一个重大的避险事件。
& F9 @- Z4 D+ o2 L9 e; ]! R/ `5 d" Q) ?5 L
我相信,随着美联储转向拯救经济,加密货币将引领股市复苏,因为加密货币对流动性相对更敏感,而股市更受经济增长前景的影响。$ i! l% a6 N( _" C; E! c1 H5 j
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出于这一原因,我还认为,我们很有可能再也看不到BTC低于21000美元和ETH 1400美元的情况。聪明的投资者将在附近点位提前行动,特别是考虑到 BTC 在今年早些时候在银行危机中的强势表现。" p+ q. t7 s t. J
& g; H! r+ u- e. k% j这会为2024年中期的新周期铺平道路,所有的负面因素都已过去,未来有许多积极的催化剂(减半、选举、监管透明度、东南亚和英国的参与、新用例等)。
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